Apple, AT&T Ban Google Voice, Put Restrictions On Google Latitude

In the never-ending debate about whether usrs benefit more from "open" amd "closed" application environments in the mobile space, Apple has tended to be the best example of innovation and consumer benefit provided by the "closed" model, even though many would likely argue the evidence tends to suggest "open" leads to more rapid innovation, as a rule.

"Closed" can lead to benefits if the provider can optimize performance of all applications and devices, while at the same time delivering better user experiences. Apple has excelled, on that score.

But Apple's recent decision to ban Google Voice from the iPhone App Store is a salient reminder that the ability to optimize user experience can come at a cost.

To be sure, nobody is quite sure who was the driving the ban. AT&T obviously has incentive to protect its existing voice business. If Apple drove the decision, the reasons are more difficult to discern.

Google Voice allows free domestic calling and texting and cheap international calls, and will in the near future provide number portability. That AT&T wouldn't be too happy is obvious. But why would Apple support such a move, beyond the clear interests of its partner?

Could perceived competition between Apple and Google, which traditionally has been quite well mannered, be moving to a new stage more analogous to the ways Microsoft and Google now compete?

In what might be a related move, Google Latitude for iPhone and iPod touch. available as a Web application running in Safari, might have been "forced" to operate in a more restrictive way than the same app runs on other mobiles.

Gooble says it worked closely with Apple to bring Latitude to the iPhone in a way Apple thought would be best for iPhone users. But afterwards, Apple requested that Google release Latitude as a Web application "in order to avoid confusion with Maps on the iPhone, which uses Google to serve maps tiles.".

"Unfortunately, since there is no mechanism for applications to run in the background on iPhone, which applies to browser-based web apps as well, we're not able to provide continuous background location updates in the same way that we can for Latitude users on Android, Blackberry, Symbian and Windows Mobile," Google says.

Again, there are reasonable user experience reasons for Apple to avoid user confusion. But one suspects there might be more than that going on here.

Skype in Patent Dispute

eBay says in a regulatory filing that it is set to go to trial on June 10, 2010 on what appears to be a key VoIP patent dispute with Joltid Limited, which licenses peer-to-peer technology to Skype..

Skype has begun to develop alternative software to that licensed through Joltid.

EBay wrote in the quarterly filing that it recognized that pending litigation over the technology behind Skype could ultimately have an "adverse result," so it had begun to develop alternative software to the technology it licenses from Joltid Ltd for Skype.

In its regulatory filing, which contains the typical disclaimers about the potential damage if eBay's position is not upheld, eBay made the statement in typical legalese that if the company is not successful, it might have to shut Skype down.

That could, in a worst-case scenario, lead to Skype being shut down, but that typically is not what happens. The parties come to some sort of settlement. Remember the wave of patent infringement lawsuits back in 2007 that started with Vonage?

One way or the other, this will be settled. Joltid doesn't win if its customer goes away, and eBay is developing alternate methods in any case.

Watch for Fireworks in Prepaid Wireless Later This Year

Watch for shake-ups in the U.S. prepaid wireless market later this year. The obvious example is what Sprint Nextel might do with its 10 million customer strong Boost-plus-Virgin Mobile business.

Now that unlimited prepaid plans have been successfully launched by MetroPCS and Leap Wireless, for example, other contestants are likely to have to rethink packaging and pricing. Products, after all, are positioned in relationship to other products, not in the abstract. In fact, when a produce cannot be valued and priced in relationship to other known products, consumers are likely to resist buying.

In context, the prepaid market will look different to typical buyers when the range is "unlimited for this price" compared to "buckets at other prices." The value equation is changed, even if, as a practical matter, for most uers the difference between "truly unlimited" and "a big bucket" is indistinguishable.

Were Sprint Nextel to announce an unlimited prepaid, it wouldn't be unusual, given its similar "Simply Everything" postpaid offers, or the fact that major competitors already have proven market receptivity to prepaid "unlimited" offers.

That would not be Dan Hesse, Sprint Nextel CEO's style. He will want to do something more potentially disruptive. Since I have been predicting the emergence of smart phone prepaid plans, I might as well suggest that would be something Hesse would consider.

Traidtionally, major carriers have tried to protect their postpaid bases by restricting handset access available to prepaid users. But given heightened competition in the overall mobile market, the growth of demand for prepaid and the leading role of smart phones in creating a base for new data services and revenue, smart phones inevitably must move to prepaid, as well as being more heavily pushed on the postpaid side of the business as well.

So one possibility is a major push by Boost Mobile and Virgin Mobile USA to offer unlimited plans with access to devices such as the Palm Pre, reversing the age-old policy of allowing prepaid resellers access only to older handsets.

As for why Sprint Nextel might have wanted to buy Virgin Mobile USA, there are a couple of possibilites. Undoubtedly Sprint Nextel has concluded that prepaid is due for significant growth. In that case, one might as well start growing faster than other competitors.

Perhaps Sprint Nextel is preparing for a disruptive move in prepaid. In that case, heft makes sense. Perhaps Sprint Nextel simply wants the better economics that accrue to scale.

Also, Virgin Mobile might simply have reached the point where it typically makes sense for a larger player to buy out a smaller player. That point ideally comes when the target company customer base is highest, churn is lowest, costs have decreased, and demand has increased.

At the end of the first quarter, Virgin Mobile's base was at 5.2 million subscribers from 5.1 million in the year ago quarter and had gross adds of 630,259, falling from 795,575 subs. That suggests a peak has been reached.

Virgin Mobile’s churn at 4.8 percent was flat sequentially and down from 5.1 percent in the first quarter of last year. And its earnings of $19.1 million were up from $4.7 million in the prior quarter.

Basically, the acquisition profile was right.

And there are competitive considerations. It appears Verizon is looking at a possible expanded move into retail prepaid. T-Mobile already is a significant player in prepaid, and in recent quarters has seen most of its net growth in prepaid. AT&T says it is watching the market, though prepaid only represents about four percent of AT&T's market, and the company is wary of cannibalization of its postpaid base.

All of that is an explosive set of circumstances. I'd be watching for fireworks that will redefine "prepaid" later this year.

Verizon Offers Free Nationwide Wi-Fi to its Wired Broadband Customers

The public Wi-Fi hotspot model seems to be morphing again.

Verizon now is offering most of its broadband customers free access to more than 13,000 Wi-Fi connections across the United States, partnering with Boingo Wireless.

Other providers offer similar Wi-Fi services, including Cablevision Systems, which offers such free access for its cable modem customers, and AT&T, which does the same for its high-speed access customers at 20,000 locations, in partnership with Wayport.

To get the free Wi-Fi access, new Verizon FiOS Internet customers must order a 25 Mbps downstream / 15 Mbps upstream or faster connection and DSL customers must order 3 Mbps/768 Kbps or faster connection.

Barnes & Noble bookstores now offers free Wi-Fi access at tis retail locations, as do hotels and other public locations, at least in part, as a customer amenity, not a revenue driver.

The Wi-Fi business model has been through several iterations over the past several years, with most local providers discovering it isn't much of a business as a stand alone. That's one reason Verizon, AT&T and Cablevision essentially use Wi-Fi access as a customer acquisition and retention tool, not a stand-alone business.

Nor have municipal Wi-Fi projects fared well. Most have found the retail revenue insufficient to support service.

Hotels and airports often use it as an amenity. For Starbucks, the business model is coffee. For Barnes & Noble, the business model will likely include sales of e-book content.

The Barnes & Noble eBookstore launched with 700,000 titles, and since the Barnes & Noble e-reader will not be available until later this year, the only way the retailer can sell is to wireless-connected PCs or other Wi-Fi-enabled devices such as the iPhone, iPod touch or Wi-Fi-enabled Blackberries.

So far, retail models have relied on a mixture of wholesale service sold by one provider of infrastructure to another provider with a retail business model, for-fee use by retail users and product sales such as e-book content. Over time, it seems likely the wholesale model will expand, as retail opportunities are limited, given the growing use of 3G and 4G mobile connections.

Brands are Media, These Days

Because of the Internet, blogs and social networking, marketing really is changing. It has been clear for some time that where brands once relied on media companies to get their messages across, using public relations and advertising, new forms have arisen.

Many firms, perhaps most, now divert spending from advertising to bolstering their own Web sites. Many, because of real simple syndication, recommendation engines and other sharing tools, can become "media" in their own right. That is not to say the new tools completely replace the older channels. It would be more accurate to say the new tools more often supplement the older channels.

Most firms likely still would see more value in a story in the Wall Street Journal than on their own blogs and content sites. But most firms can use "earned media" (non-paid attention as compared to for-fee advertising, for example) to a growing extent.

Whether the goal is "branding" or "direct response," earned media seems to be assuming a greater role. But the business models are different. Where "professional" media have relied on a revenue model where attention is converted to advertising or subscription revenue, "earned media" relies on converting attention to sales of hardware, software or services.

That means many of the proxy measures used by professional media to measure success have less relevance. Where volume metrics such as visits, clicks or views are a way of demonstrating "attention," those same metrics may or may not have as much direct relationship to brand sales activity, especially in businesses with long sales cycles.

Attention still is important. But the attention a brand wants is the sort that contributes to sales of the firm's products, not advertising or other revenues. So far, this is a metric nobody seems to have figured out. Perhaps it is not directly measurable.

What does seem clear is that attention created by brand-sponsored content can lead to peer recommendations. And studies of influence do suggest that peer recommendations are more powerful, by far, than traditional or even most "new" media messages.

So far, this more art than science. But brands believe it works. Some studies show firms are switching spending away from advertising and towards their own Web sites and content. This will have big implications both for marketing and for the media.

http://blog.hubspot.com/blog/tabid/6307/bid/4897/Be-a-Publisher-But-Don-t-Use-the-Publishing-Industry-s-Metrics.aspx

Verizon Wireless Unveils Cross-Network, Cross-Device, Cross-OS App Store

Up to this point, "application stores" have been device specific. But Verizon Wireless is launching the first cross-device, cross-network application development effort and store. Specifically, developers can create apps running across four different mobile providers and operating systems ranging from Research in Motion, Android, Windows Mobile, Palm and Symbian operating systems.

The “Joint Innovation Lab” is a consortium consisting including Verizon, China Mobile, Vodafone and Softbank. That platform, which will push common standards for developers, will allow those developers to reach a billion customers on all four networks.

The consortium will offer its own software developer kit and open up handset and service application programming interfaces to developers.

This is important: until now, developers have had to design apps to work with the dozens of handsets supported by each carrier. Now, however, Verizon says it will offer tools so developers can write one app that will work on all handsets developed under the JIL standard.

The JIL will feature common application access management standards, including for things such as billing and common application management standards.

The app store will be run by Qualcomm. The storefront will be available on the Internet, mobile web and through a portal on the handset, and is expected to be operational by the end of 2009.

Many obstacles must be surmounted, of course, but the effort is qualitatively different from all prior app store efforts, in offering cross-network, cross device and operating system capabilities.

http://deals.venturebeat.com/2009/07/28/verizon-promises-developers-access-to-a-billion-customers-so-there-apple/

Sprint Buys Virgin Mobile

Sprint Nextel Corporation is acquiring Virgin Mobile USA for $483 million, Sprint already owns 13.1 percent of Virgin Mobile, which has been a mobile virtual network operator customer.

The move illustrates the growth of prepaid as a segment within the mobility business, as well as the maturation of the mobile business overall. Organic growth is harder to come by, making growth through acquisition a more reasonable tactic. But the biggest take away is the growth of the prepaid segment, which traditionally has been a segment major operators have shyed away from.

Broadband Stimulus: Let the Bellyaching Begin!

Not a dime of broadband stimulus money has been awarded but the carping will begin in earnest once the first round of awards are made. That is almost inevitable, given the vastly greater number of potential "losers" compared to the actual award winners, the range of contestants already locked in fierce competition with each other and the predictable complaints that incumbents got too much of the money.

The Rural Utilities Service portion of the program arguably faces more challenges. The National Telecommunications & Information Administration likely will have an easier time since that is where many training, public computing center and other projects can legitimately be funded.

Almost by definition, rural broadband communications is capital intensive enough that if one is not already a service provider, becoming one would be prohibitively difficult. Beyond that, running a service provider business does require some organizational skills and capabilities even experienced entrepreneurs have found challenging.

If the nation learned nothing else from the massive expansion of investment in competitive service providers in the late 1990s, it is that most such ventures without continuing "high cost" support will fail.

One example of such "incumbent bias" is Viaero Wireless, a Fort Morgan, Colo.-based wireless company providing services to residents and businesses in eastern Colorado and western and central Nebraska.

The company was formerly known as NE Colorado Cellular Inc., prior to which the company was known as Cellular ONE of Northeast Colorado.

Viaero is seeking as much as $150 million in stimulus funding to expand its operations, says Mike Felicissmo, company VP. That presumably would include an upgrade to a 3G network, though the company already provides EDGE services.

Wired telecom companies might not be too happy facing the new competition, though. And some will not be happy if such incumbent firms get funding. Of course, that is what RUS traditionally does.

http://www.fortmorgantimes.com/ci_12922308

Satellite Gains 3.5%, Cable Flat, says Centris

Satellite TV providers have gained 3.5 percent more subscribers, while cable TV operators were essentially flat for the period, say researchers at Centris. And while some have noted sluggishness in ownership of Blu-Ray video players, adoption grew 71 percent over the last year.

There were 7.2 million Blu-Ray households in the first quarter of 2008 and 12.3 million Blu-Ray households in the first quarter of 2009.

Some 32 million households now subscribe to satellite-delivered multi-channel TV service, up from 30.9 million a year ago.

Nearly 63 million households have cable TV, but pay-per-view is quite flat. In April 2009 Centris reported that 12.6 million households ordered PPV in a typical month, unchanged from 2008.

In the first quarter of 2009, about 64 percent of all US households access the Internet each month, up nine percent over 2008, and representing growth of about nine percent.

About 80 percent of all homes accessing the Internet did so using broadband, a 17 percent increase over 2008. The percentage of homes using broadband has grown at about a 17-percent rate over the last three years, Centris says.

Where Did AT&T Prepaid Accounts Go?

AT&T's prepaid results were weaker om the second quarter. "Obviously we had a net loss of customers of about 400,000," AT&T CFO Richard Lindner says.

So what happened? Did those users stop using their mobiles? Other evidence suggests not. Few users in recent surveys claim to have terminated their mobile services entirely.

So the most-logical explanation is that other prepaid mobile providers picked up those 400,000 customers. And Lindner doesn't dispute that view. "Certainly we’re seeing impacts from other competitive offers in the market," he says.

Prepaid represents about four percent of AT&T wireless service revenues and less than that amount as a percentage of total earnings. So AT&T is not likely to push too hard in the prepaid direction for fear of cannibalizing its more-lucrative postpaid business.

But that will mean growing opportunties for providers of prepaid wireless.

"Obviously we recognize there’s certainly some opportunities for us there in that portion of the market and so you’ll see us continue to address that and make some tweaks and changes to our product offers," says Lindner.

"But one thing that I think we feel is important is we are not going to put offers in the market that we don’t feel will be profitable or earn a reasonable return," he adds. "And we won't do anything obviously that would impact or cannibalize our postpaid base."

AT&T, Verizon: Business Segment Suffers Worse than Consumer

Verizon Communications and AT&T arguably took bigger hits to their enterprise than consumer segments as a result of the recession, second quarter financial results suggest.

Revenue from Verizon’s global enterprise business dropped 6.7 percent while the wireless customer segment revenue grew 27.7 percent. Even consumer wired services revenue grew 13.7 percent in the second quarter.

AT&T also reported that the deepest economic impacts in the second quarter came in the business services segment.

AT&T CFO Richard Lindner likewise says total business revenues, including enterprise, wholesale, small and mid-sized customers, were down 5.6 percent year over year. Excluding equipment sales, business revenues were down 4.3 percent, Lindner says.

Wireless revenue was up 10.1 percent, on the other hand, while total wireline consumer customer revenues were $5.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with $5.7 billion in the year-earlier quarter and essentially flat, down only $11 million, versus the first quarter of 2009.

"We’ve seen pressures across business product lines but the largest impacts are volume related in traditional voice and legacy data products," says Lindner. "The sectors where we’ve seen the most impact, as you would expect, are in finance, transportation, and manufacturing."

Consumer broadband and video are helping both AT&T and Verizon, while it appears legacy business products are suffering. Newer services including Ethernet, VPNs, hosting, IP conferencing and applications services grew 15.2 percent year over year.

In an economy where consumer spending drives roughly 75 percent of activity, one might have suspected consumer revenue would be harder hit. Instead, it appears massive job losses have crimped business segment spending the most.

50% to 60% of New Prepaid Wireless Users Will Never Go Back to Post-Paid

Prepaid wireless clearly is growing. In the first quarter, for example, about 61 percent of the new net customers T-Mobile added were prepaid accounts. In the fourth quarter of 2008, T-Mobile added 57 percent prepaid accounts. In the first quarter of 2008 T-Mobile added 25 percent prepaid customers.

So the big question is what those customers might do once the recession is over and there is less need to watch spending on mobile and other communications and entertainment services.

Wireless analyst Chetan Sharma thinks it is possible that "it is quite likely that 50 percent to 60 percent of such consumers don’t go back to postpaid."

For major wireless providers, this will mean a decline in average revenue per user. For prepaid providers, the trend will mean continued opportunities to take market share from postpaid providers.

The other trend is that although prepaid traditionaly has been viewed as a niche segment for lower-income customers, that could be changing. Lots of customers who traditionally have used postpaid plans might find they can get along quite nicely using prepaid.

Over time, even smart phone customers will find they are able to buy prepaid service that allows them to use higher performance, later model devices with prepaid plans.

Mobile Streaming Video Grows 58% Last Quarter

Worldwide mobile data bandwidth usage has grown 30 percent during the second quarter of 2009, says Allot Communications. Asia leads the growth with 36 percent; Europe posted 28 percent growth and the Americas 25 percent.

Heavy data users do not distinguish between their fixed and their mobile networks and seem to expect the same service from the Internet, irrespective of their access method, the report says.

That is going to be a problem, for the same reason a small percentage of heavy users create performance issues for all other users, one might reasonably conclude. The other issue is that the fastest-growing traffic type is streaming video, which grew 58 percent during the quarter. Since streaming video requires 100 times the bandwidth of a voice call, you can imagine what the problem is.

The other issue is that mobile traffic is not evenly distributed: some locations get dramatically more demand than others. Peer-to-peer traffic, for example, accounts for 42 percent of bandwidth utilization in the busiest cells on the network, but only 21 percent in the average cell.

Since mobile licenses are awarded in ways that mean usable bandiwidth in any one location is limited, fancier engineering, higher network cost and more-sophisticated traffic engineering are required at some cell sites, though others might manage just fine.

Internet Rivals TV as Top Leisure Pursuit

The Internet now rivals TV as a favorite leisure activity, say researchers at Frank Magid Associates (click image for larger view). And computer or game consoles are not far behind.

Broadband Adoption is Not Just about Availability

Some observers think broadband adoption is primarily a matter of availability. It is important, but it is not the only important factor.

Even if every home and business in every OECD country were wired with a broadband connection, the United States "per capita" rank would actually fall to 20th, because of differences in the size of households in each of the countries.

In other words, "America would be 100 percent broadband saturated and yet our standing would plummet because the OECD ranks on a per capita basis rather than per household," says Federal Communications Commission Commissioner Robert McDowell.

In Spain, for example, 28 percent of people flatly say they "do not want" broadband. About 15 percent of homes do not own a computer.

About 13 percent of surveyed consumers say they do not find the Internet "useful."

S0me 12 percent say they do not have time to use the Internet and 10 percent say they do not know what the Internet is. Only four percent of non-users say it is "too expensive."

So the main reason non-users are not buying broadband access services is that they do not see the Internet's usefulness and value.