Friday, June 11, 2010

51% Mobile Video Growth Since 2009


Nielsen's latest "Three Screen Report" shows 51 percent growth of video watching on mobile phones, with a perhaps-surprising skew of demographics.

About 55 percent of the mobile video audience is aged 25 to 49. Also, the number of people with multi-tasking behavior, where users "watch" TV while using their PCs, was down in March 2010, though the length of time spent was up about 10 percent for people who did multi-task.

More than half of U.S. TV households now have a high-definition television and receive high-definition signals, while HDTV penetration grew 189 percent between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010.

More than a third of homes have a digital video recorder, up 51percent over the last two years.

About 64 percent of U.S. homes now use broadband Internet access while nearly a quarter of households (up 38%
year-over-year) have smartphones. The former trend means more uses can stream or download Internet video, while the latter trend means more place-shifting behavior, as well as some amount of incremental video consumption.

The amount of time spent watching television is still increasing. U.S. viewers watched two more hours of
TV per month in the first quarter of 2010 than in the first quarter of  2009.

The average time spent simultaneously using TV and Internet in the home also grew 9.8 percent, to 3 hours and 41 minutes per month, though the number of people doing so declined.

The number of people who are timeshifting has grown 18 percent since last year to 94 million, with the
average user now timeshifting 9 hours and 36 minutes per month.

The mobile video audience grew 51.2 percnet  year over year, surpassing 20 million users for the first time.

Beyond the TV, technology is helping drive video use on the “second” and “third” screens. The proliferation of broadband access is bolstering online video, creating an alternative mass outlet for distributing television content and “timeshifting” long-form TV.

Similarly, the increased popularity of smartphones has created yet another opportunity for incremental viewing, and Nielsen logically expects smartphone video viewing to keep growing. On top of that are new devices such as tablet PCs that also are expected to increase the amount of mobile video viewing.

Walled Gardens on the Web?

Though it might have seemed a ridiculous notion just a few years ago, the web now is fragmenting into various walled and curated gardens as devices, service provider business deals and even operating system environments begin to favor and curate web services.

Of course, for some users curated environments might be a good idea. Children's use of the Internet, for example, seems an area where parents might welcome more control and curation.

"Now fraught with pornography, scams, spam, fraud, malware, adware, and viruses, the Web has become a dangerous place to raise children or conduct any other form of educational endeavor," says Chris Poley, a financial markets participant and trader.

It is not entirely clear whether most users will prefer curated experiences, and if so, when and where. What seems incontestable is that there are use cases (iPads and smartphones, for example) where curation increasingly is the case and might even be welcomed.

It is a stunning reversal of the trend to openness, though.

O2 Scraps Unlimited Mobile Plans

U.K.-based O2 is ending its unlimited data access plans and is switching to buckets of usage.

Beginning June 24 a variety of plans ranging from 500 MBytes to 1 GByte.

E-Reader Maker IRex Files For Bankruptcy

E-Reader maker IRex Technologies has filed for bankruptcy, citing disappointing sales of its consumer device in the United States.

The firm's DR800SG e-reader was notable because it used an “open” model that gave publishers lots of control over how their content was distributed. Unlike the Kindle, for instance, publishers could set their own pricing. But most observers expected there would be a shake out in the market, and that now has happened.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Apple Faces Another Antitrust Probe

U.S. antitrust regulators--it is not clear whether it is the Federal Trade Commission or the Department of Justice, are reported by the Financial Times to be weighing another investigation of Apple for restraint of trade, this time because of its plans to block rivals from access to its mobile app advertising network.

The ironic point is that regulators continue to bustle about, trying to regulate an access industry fighting simply to replace revenues it is losing, while the arguably-more-important gatekeeper decisions are being made by device and application providers, whose businesses everyone conversely expect will power the businesses of tomorrow.

The latest concern comes less than a month after concluded an  investigation of Google's purchase of AdMob. So powerful is Apple seen to be that the mere presence of Apple in the market with its own iAd network and a suite of "must have" devices was seen by regulators to be enough of a counterweight to Google that there was no risk of anti-competitive behavior.

According to the Financial Times, it is not yet clear whether it will be left to the Federal Trade Commission, which carried out the recent Google investigation, or the Department of Justice to take an investigation forward.

Apple’s latest rules about analytics for bar access to such information by competing ad platforms, third-party analytics firms or companies that compete with Apple in hardware.

Google is saying, and most observers agree, that the rules effectively bar Apple apps from using Google's ad network.

So consider the possible other implications. Perhaps in retaliation for its exclusion from the Apple application ecosystem, Google makes YouTube inaccessible from iPhones, iPads or iPod Touch devices. Or search, or other apps. You get the point: serious gatekeeping happens all over the Internet and broadband ecosystems these days.

Phone.com Mobile Office for Android Devices

Is There a Need for Economic Regulation of the Internet

Two necessary preconditions must be satisfied to justify market intervention in the form of economic regulation on the part of the government, says Dennis Weisman, Professor of Economics at Kansas State University and an editor of the Review of Network Economics and a member of the Free State Foundation's Board of Academic Advisors.

The first one inquires as to whether there is a problem and the second one inquires as to whether there is a solution? Only if both questions can be answered in the affirmative can such intervention be justified.

He says the case for economic regulation of broadband markets is weak at best. The Federal Communications Commission can point to, at most, two cases where things went awry — Madison River and Comcast.

Madison River was resolved with dispatch; and in the case of Comcast, the supposed cover-up was arguably worse than the alleged crime, Weisman says. "There is no offense in reasonable network management practices designed to prevent congestion and maintain service quality," he adds.

Nor is there evidence that the major incumbent telecommunications carriers or the cable companies were earning supra-normal returns that might be suggestive of market power," which might imply there is a problem waiting to be solved. http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1525568

The structure of broadband prices is a problem in the economics of two-sided markets, though. The issue is that it is difficult to determine how the price structure should be changed to enhance economic welfare. "In other words, there can be no reasonable assurance that regulatory intervention to alter the price structure would not do more harm than good," says Weisman.

Google Caffeine Boosts Content Refresh Rate 50%

Google's new indexing engine, Caffeine, is said to provide 50 percent fresher results for web searches than Google's last index.

Google's older index had several layers, some of which were refreshed at a faster rate than others. The main layer would update every couple of weeks, for example. To refresh a layer of the old index, Google would analyze the entire web.

With Caffeine, Google analyzes the web in small portions and updates its search index on a continuous basis, globally. That means fresher information.


Apple Bans Google Mobile App Ads

Apple has changed the terms of its application developer agreement to block apps from using competitive ad networks operated by rivals such as Google.

That's ironic in light of "network neutrality" debates that some claim involve packet blocking, in the "restraint of trade" sense. Others point out that network management and grooming, as well as ability to create value-added services and features, are more the issue.

What is striking are the many ways packets are being groomed, blocked and shaped by application and device providers. Apple blocking Google ad network ads, or Apple refusing to share analytics with some third-party ad networks, are new examples.

Blunt instruments do not work well in a business and an ecosystem that changes this fast, especially when content pay walls, app stores, even operating systems and browsers can favor or deny access to "Internet bits."

UC is Changing Channel Requirements

Channel organizations have faced change ever since IP communications began to displace older voice technologies, principally by increasing technology skills requirements.

The complexity of UC implementations, especially in multi-vendor environments, requires a significant vendor or channel partner implementation and integration expertise, notes Melanie Turek, Frost & Sullivan principal analyst.

Most companies with more than a few dozen employees will deploy UC across technology from at least two vendors. That will involve integration, and since it's unlikely those two vendors are plug-and-play today, that integration will require services, she says.

The nature of channel partnerships also is changing as IT and telecom staffs converge with the shift to software-centric solutions, and with businesses increasingly virtualizing their data centers and communications infrastructures.

http://www.nojitter.com/blog/archives/2010/06/the_channel_is.html

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

T-Mobile May Offer All Phones Free for Father's Day

T-Mobile might be gearing up to offer free phones for Father’s Day.

According to the copy of the script TmoNews apparently obtained, a voice-over says, “Starting early 8 a.m. this Saturday, T-Mobile is putting families first with another first. We’re making every single phone in the store free.”"


Apple Will Bar Google (AdMob) From iPhones, iPads, iTouch Devices

Says AdMob CEO: Apple proposed new developer terms on Monday that, if enforced as written, would prohibit app developers from using AdMob and Google’s advertising solutions on the iPhone.  These advertising related terms both target companies with competitive mobile technologies (such as Google), as well as any company whose primary business is not serving mobile ads. This change threatens to decrease – or even eliminate – revenue that helps to support tens of thousands of developers. The terms hurt both large and small developers by severely limiting their choice of how best to make money.  And because advertising funds a huge number of free and low cost apps, these terms are bad for consumers as well.

Let’s be clear. This change is not in the best interests of users or developers. In the history of technology and innovation, it’s clear that competition delivers the best outcome. Artificial barriers to competition hurt users and developers and, in the long run, stall technological progress.

Since I started AdMob in 2006, I have watched competition in mobile advertising help drive incredible growth and innovation in the overall ecosystem.  We’ve worked to help developers make money, regardless of platform – iPhone, Android, Palm Pre, Blackberry, Windows, and others. In the past four years, AdMob has helped tens of thousands of developers make money and build real businesses across multiple operating systems.

I’ve personally worked with many iPhone app developers around the world, including one who created a fun and simple game in the early days of the App Store. He built the app because he was interested in the challenge. He built this single app into a multi-million dollar advertising revenue stream with AdMob, hired a whole team, and turned a hobby into a real business.

We see these stories all the time.  We want to help make more of them, so we’ll be speaking to Apple to express our concerns about the impact of these terms.

Google Voice to Integrate with Gmail

Google apparently is testing a new feature that makes Gmail chat more useful: users are able to make and receive Google Voice calls from inside the Gmail application, as they would using Skype on a PC.

A new phone icon opens a Gmail chat window with a dialpad, an option to find contacts, a credit balance and a call button.

Sprint’s HTC EVO 4G Sold Even Where There is Only 3G

Sales of Sprint Nextel Corp.’s HTV Evo smartphone did well even in markets that don’t yet have access to the company’s new super-fast 4G wireless network, the company’s CFO told analysts Wednesday. Considering there is a $10 monthly surcharge for the 4G network feature, paid by all HTC Evo users, whether they have access to the network or not, that's something.

Bob Brust, appearing at a New York analyst event, said that first-day sales of the HTC EVO 4G on Friday “did really well across the country, not just in 4G areas” and that the Overland Park-based company was “working hard to remedy” a rash of stores that sold out of the devices.

Is Sprint Finally Turning Its Business Around?

"Assuming it can execute on its current plans, the worst is behind it," says Yankee Group analyst Carl Howe.

Sprint is winning back consumers the old-fashioned way: with hard-nosed cost management, good customer service, and simpler and cheaper services, says Howe, despite a tough period since about 2005 when the Nextel deal and then operational issues caused huge customer defections.

Sprint Nextel’s annualized customer churn rate in the first quarter of 2008 was 38.2 percent, one of the highest in the wireless industry, and a disproportionate share of those losses came from the Nextel portion of the customer base.

In the first quarter of 2008, in fact,  Sprint posted a $29.7 billion write-down of the $36 billion it paid for Nextel. It isn't clear what might have happened had Sprint not purchased Nextel, but it seems clear now that it was a mistake.

But Sprint has been clawing its way out of a hole for the past few years. Annual churn is down to about 33 percent, which is higher than Sprint probably wishes it were, but is a vast improvement.

Based on our North America Mobile Carrier Monitor, annualized customer churn at Sprint has fallen to just over 33 percent.

And though some might view the segment as unappetizing, Sprint has focused much of its marketing efforts on prepaid plans, the fastest growing segment of the mobile phone market.

Sprint has improved its customer satisfaction significantly since 2008 as well. Howe says the average satisfaction of Sprint customers is 7.3, just slightly higher than the industry average of 7.2, and higher than AT&T according to the May 2010 American Customer Satisfaction Index.

While not yet profitable again, Sprint has been slowly and steadily improving its financial performance.

And while some might scoff at the model, Sprint also is restructuring its business as wireless providers in some other markets (India and Europe) also have done, focusing on marketing and outsourcing technical elements of the business.

Basically, Sprint is trying to externalize all functions non-core to service differentiation, customer acquisition and retention. It has spun off network operations management, though not ownership, to Ericsson AB.

That agreement moved 6,000 Sprint employees to Ericsson, while reducing Sprint’s operational expense.

Spirnt also is sharing mobile infrastructure. In 2008, Sprint sold off more than 3,000 of its mobile towers to TowerCo and agreed to lease these towers back for its operations. By leasing instead of owning the towers, Sprint was able to free up capital.

The operator also has roaming agreements with Verizon, giving Sprint the flexibility to exchange operational cost for coverage when it doesn’t feel capital expenditures for coverage are warranted.

While Verizon and AT&T are swapping maps and million-dollar advertising budgets fighting to capture postpaid customers, Sprint has no fewer than four brands focusing on prepaid subscribers: Assurance for government-subsidized plans, Common Cents for Walmart shoppers, Boost for voice-focused consumers, and Virgin Mobile for data-oriented young consumers.

With the postpaid wireless market saturated and prepaid plans now accounting for the majority of growth in wireless, Sprint is focused on serving customers that the other carriers aren’t.

Sprint also was first out of the gate with a fourth-generation network, though some might now say it faces a switch of air interface again from WiMAX to Long Term Evolution.

It is not completely clear whether consumers will see WiMAX, Wi-Fi features Sprint is emphasizing and its approach to retail pricing as the differentiators Sprint hopes they will be, but there is no question Sprint is trying.

Any consumer considering a higher-end smartphone purchase these days probably will find Sprint's approach a lot easier to understand, as users now must decide how many voice minutes they want, how many text messages they need, whether they want or need multimedia messaging service, which data plan is best, and so forth. It simply is more complicated to buy a device and service today, than it used to be.
Sprint is trying pretty hard to simplify all of that.

Yankee Group believes that it will rebound this year more strongly than its competitors might think, says Howe.

Will ChatGPT Ever Make Money?

A study by Epoch AI illustrates the monetization issue faced by language model developers , where continual needs to invest in the next ite...