Big Smartphones, Small Tablets

One wonders how big smartphone screens can get, and small tablet screens can get. The Sprint HTC Evo 4G and Verizon's Motorola Droid X have huge screens of about 4.3 inches and 4.4 inches, respectively.

The Evo 4G measures 4.8 by 2.6 by 0.5 inches and has a 4.3-inch touchscreen. T-Mobile's HD2 phone, also built by HTC, has similar dimensions--4.7 by 2.6 by 0.4 inches--as well as a 4.3-inch display. The Droid X, slated to debut next week, is even bigger than the Evo 4G or HD2, and has a 4.4-inch screen. By comparison, Apple's new iPhone 4 is relative petite with its 3.5-inch LCD.

The Dell Streak, an upcoming tablet device, will feature a 5-inch touchscreen. While the Streak will have 3G broadband and Wi-Fi, as well as a front-facing camera for video chat, it's definitely not a smartphone, according to Dell.

There are boundaries for how big a phone can be, and still be usable, though. One might argue the same thing is true of tablets. There is some point at which they likely are too small to be highly useful. Right now, it's hard to say where the line is, though.

Weight and battery size are other issues. To drive a larger screen you need a bigger battery. That adds both heft and weight to any device, but especially for a phone.

Supersized Smartphones: How Big Can They Get? - PCWorld

FCC Votes to Open Title II Reclassification for Broadband Access

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has taken the first step toward imposing limited regulations on broadband providers by voting Thursday to launch a notice of inquiry exploring the change.

The commission voted three to two to launch the notice of inquiry, which asks for public comment on a proposal by FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski to reclassify broadband as a common-carrier regulated service. It might be an expensive proposition, if the FCC proceeds.

Proposed regulation of high-speed Internet service as a "common carrier" service could cost the U.S. economy at least $62 billion annually over the next five years--a total of $310 billion--and eliminate 502,000 jobs, according to a study released by the Advanced Communications Law & Policy Institute at New York University Law School.

The report estimates that broadband providers and related industries may cut their investments by 10 percent to 30 percent from 2010 to 2015 in response to additional regulation.

At at 30 percent reduction in investment, the economy might sustain an $80 billion hit, according to Charles Davidson, director of the law school's Advanced Communications Law & Policy Institute.

"There will be follow-on effects in the whole ecosystem," said Bret Swanson, president of technology researcher Entropy Economics in Zionsville, Ind., who co-authored the study with Davidson. "A diminution of investment by the big infrastructure companies will reduce network capacity, new services, and investment by all the ecosystem companies."

These investments would spur capital expenditures by others in the ecosystem. A five-percent incremental increase in capital expenditures by the rest of the  ecosystem companies could boost investment by approximately $18 billion per year between 2010 and 2015--about $90 billion over five years--and yield an additional 450,000 jobs created or sustained.

One might ask whether it makes sense to place further burdens on a business whose revenue steadily is declining as a percentage of total end-user communications spending. It wouldn't be the first time the FCC or Congress has moved to essentially disrupt industry structure in hopes of spurring higher consumer welfare.

In the Telecommunications Act of 1996, voice services were liberalized. What nobody apparently anticipated is that wireline voice would suddenly reach its zenith, and begin a long, steady decline. The background assumption was that the business was a "growth" business, rather than a "declining" business. But common sense suggests that different policies are needed when a business is shrinking, than when it is growing, when a business can grow faster because of more competition and when it will simply decline faster because of new constraints. $310 Billion Economic Loss, Over 5 Years if Title II Rules are Imposed

Is Email Going Away?

Lots of people, including Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, think email is fading away as a communiation activity. "Only 11 percent of teens email each day," Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg says. "Email is probably going away."

Part of that behavior pattern can be explained by the fact that teens are not in the work world in the same way as older users are, and email remains highly important in the work world.

This is good news for Facebook and online advertising in general, she argues.
People are more comfortable seeing ads directed at them in their Facebook "News Feed" than they are in their email inboxes, she argues.

While ads in an inbox are called "spam," Facebook users will even sometimes click "Like" on a brand's Facebook page and volunteer to receive messages directly from advertisers.

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Mobile Advertising Growing, But Revenues Still Modest

Mobile advertising will continue to be a modestly-sized segment of the digital media ecosystem as long as different segments of marketers have alternative media vehicles which better meet their business objectives, say researchers at MagnaGlobal. But mobile commerce and mobile marketing are destined to grow.

Global online advertising will rise by 12.4 percent in constant currency terms during 2010, to $61 billion dollars globally. Accounting for actual and expected changes in currencies over the course of 2009 and 2010, online advertising will grow during 2010 by 13 percent in U.S. dollar terms or by 21 percent in Euros.

Paid Search has quickly become the most important component of online advertising, and in 2010 this segment will account for nearly $30 billion, up by 16.5 percent over 2009 totals on a constant currency basis, and about 49 percent of total revenues.

Google is the global leader in paid search, but in the paid search markets of China and Russia, the leading paid search providers are domestic players Baidu and Yandex.

All other online advertising will account for $31 billion, up by 8.7 percent in constant currency terms.

Advertising networks retain their importance to advertisers given their ability to aggregate and monetize vast quantities of inventory in an inexpensive manner. Social networking sites such as Facebook capture a large and growing share of audience time.

These trends should continue over the next five years, and the report expects online advertising to collectively grow by 11.7 percent in 2011 and by an average rate of 11 percent through 2015. At this time the global industry will generate $103 billion dollars in constant dollars.

The ongoing global economic recovery has contributed some modest uplift to the expectations of growth, but secular factors are the primary cause of this rapid and sustained pace of development. Importantly, says the study, industry growth is not directly caused by increasing numbers of consumers online nor by rising levels of time spent online.

Instead, growth is driven by businesses, many of them small, that find online media to be the single most effective platform to accomplish their business goals.

PC Sales Up by 52% Next Five Years, Forrester Says

Apple CEO Steve Jobs has compared the PC to a farm truck, saying that when America was an agrarian economy, “all cars were trucks because that’s what you needed on the farm."

The analogy is that PCs will be displaced by new devices such as the iPad.

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, obviously does not agree. “I think people are going to be using PCs in greater and greater numbers for years to come," he said. "The PC as we know it will continue to morph form factor."

Semantics aside, there still is a question: is the iPad something new, a new market, or simply a new PC form factor? Steve Jobs may not view the iPad as a PC, but we do, says Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst.

"Our view is that the consumer PC market in the United States is indeed getting bigger," she says. "Over the next five years, PC unit sales across all form factors will increase by 52 percent."

Desktops are the only type of PC whose numbers will be fewer in 2015 than they are today, she argues.

Growth will come from new form factors like tablets, but laptop sales will increase steadily also.

Tablets will, however, cannibalize netbooks, outselling netbooks starting in 2012.

In 2015, 23 percent of all PCs sold to consumers in the US will be tablets.

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A Contrarian View on iPhone?

It takes a brave constitution to suggest iPhone is losing its "cool" factor, especially given iPhone's success in the very-tough Japanese market, where foreign-made devices tend not to succeed.

Enterprises Will Spend $12.5 Billion on Tablets, Other MIDs in 2015.

Tablet devices such as the iPad are getting most traction in the consumer market, but will get traction in business markets as well, according to ABI Research. The firm predicts worldwide ultra-mobile device adoption will average 55 percent per year as businesses find many uses for such devices.

In addition to tablets, the research company also puts other devices in the UMD category, including netbooks, smartbooks and mobile Internet devices.

“Businesses will be attracted to these devices for the same reasons as consumers – their larger screens, LAN and WWAN connectivity, and most importantly, low cost," says Dan Shey, enterprise practice director. The firm predicts businesses will buy $12.5 billion worth of tablets and other MIDs in 2015.

ABI Research: Enterprise adoption of ultra-mobile devices to hit $12.5 billion by 2015

Why Some AT&T Customers Might Want to Stay Away from "MicroCell"

It appears there are at least two distinct customer segments where it comes to use of AT&T's new femtocell offering.

Users who really cannot get decent macrocell coverage in their homes or offices probably will welcome the "MicroCell."

But users who do not have that problem, and want to offload their data traffic to the in-home network, will be better off avoiding the Microcell.

The reason is that data consumed on its MicroCell femtocell will be included in subscribers' newly capped monthly data allowance.

Any 3G data traffic running over the AT&T MicroCell will count towards a user's monthly data limits, just as making voice calls over the Microcell counts towards a user's monthly bucket of minutes.

It is possible to get unlimited calling on the Microcell for $19.99 per month, but this is only for voice calls, not data.

In contrast, Wi-Fi usage does not count towards a subscriber's monthly data limit, even though both access methods use the customer's own fixed broadband connection. Of course, AT&T has to invest capital to acquire, deploy and support the femtocells, so relying on the customer's own equipment makes sense, where possible.

The 3G MicroCell complements Wi-Fi by providing enhanced in-home voice coverage and reliable data when Wi-Fi may not be available -- but it is primarily intended for voice calls.

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Will Sprint Buy the Rest of Clearwire?

TownHall Investment Research Analyst Gerard Hallaren says Sprint management has made comments that leading some investors to believe the company iss actively considering a bid for the rest of Clearwire.

"As best we can tell, the speculation is based on a perceived desire by Sprint control its own destiny by owning its 4G network and on synergies created by combining the two companies," says Hallaren.

Some people will contest the notion, as it flies directly against the rest of Sprint's recent initiatives to outsource operations that are not directly customer facing, and concentrate on marketing and customer-facing operations. It is worth noting, however, that Sprint has not acted to divest its actual ownership of facilities, with the exception of tower sites.

The Sprint "4G" marketing platform seems to be getting a lift from the HTC Evo launch, and that appears to be prompting the speculation about whether full ownership of Clearwire (Sprint now owns 57 percent) would add value.

Despite some possible strategic logic, namely the ability to use the Clearwire network anyway it wishes to, there would be obstacles.

Given Sprint's weak financial position, a dilutive equity deal would be required. Hallaren suggests a reverse takeover might be considered.

One issue is that the other Clearwire joint venture partners bought most of their stock at far higher levels, around $17, or $10 higher than the current price.

The public owns only 10 percent of Clearwire, while Intel (11 percent) and Comcast (nine percent) are the largest holders after Sprint. Time Warner owns five percent, Google three percent, Brighthouse one percent, Eagle River four percent.

Perhaps the bigger issue is the different business models. Clearwire is mostly a wholesale provider, though it has some retail operations. Sprint really is a retailer with some wholesale operations. It isn't clear how much more Sprint benefits from increasing its 57-percent stake.

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"The World Has Changed," or Has It?

"The world has changed," Orange Business CEO Says

Speaking to an audience of enterprise executives, Orange Business Services CEO
Vivek Badrinath noted that the world has been changed forever as a consequence of the economic crisis.

"The world is not the same as it was two years ago in terms of what's expected in this room," he noted. The logical question is what those new things are that seem to have changed the market so vastly. The answers aren't easy to figure out.

"New collaboration and social networks for customers and employees are emerging and we now need to work around multiple interactions with our end customers," he says. Sure, but hardly a need that was "transformed" because of the economic crisis.

"We have both the obligation to provide Sarbanes-Oxley compatible, efficient, protected environments for our customers and we have to face the challenges of openness," he says. Yes, but that was true before the economic crisis.

"You're asking us to be faster because the world is moving fast," he says. Agreed, but hardly something new.

"Our ambition is to become the leading developer of applications; to establish ourselves as a true integrator of services," he says. That is the more-shocking statement, perhaps.

Specifically, Orange plans to add a new layer of services that would, for example, enable CIOs to manage all BlackBerrys (password management, policy management), no matter what network they are on.

Services underpinned by the core network expertise seem to be the direction Orange wants to go. "Telecom can get commoditized but its the customer experience, with the services and systems we bring, that defines the value that we bring to this market," he says.

All worthy goals. But one suspects Badrinath was engaging in a bit of enthusiastic hyperbole. I see nothing here that speaks to a "world that is not the same."

It is an ambitious, worthy goal to aim to become the leading developer of applications, and to own the customer experience. Badrinath is right to note the huge change this would represent in a new world with many third-party experience providers. It just isn't entirely clear this has changed much because fo the global recession.

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How to Get Rid of the "Buzzing" When Watching the World Cup

 Tired of the "buzzing" sounds fans are making at the World Cup? The vuvuzela is responsible, but the sound of those long horns can be muted if you have access to an equalizer on the device you are using to watch the action.

If you are watching the games on any device with an equalizer you can control, muting four specific frequencies will eliminate the buzzing while leaving the game sounds and commentary alone.

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Global Broadband Access Market Up to $414 Billion by 2020

The global broadband access market, including both fixed and mobile modes, will increase from $274 billion in 2010 to $416 billion in 2020, an increase of 52 percent, according to the Telco 2.0 Initiative and Disruptive Analysis.

More than half the revenue growth will come from wholesale and “two-sided” fees for improved access capacity and quality. This could include fees paid by business partners who want access to network service provider features and services.

By 2020, mobile broadband will be worth $138 billion, or 32 percent of the total broadband access industry revenues.

The analysts predict growth of “bulk wholesale” revenues, where capacity might be purchased by a third party as a component of some other service. Services provided to electrical utilities or other parties with telemetry needs are other examples.

“Comes with data” business models such as used by Amazon Kindle to sell content also will play a bigger role. Here, a product vendor or service provider contracts for data capacity with the broadband provider, and bundles it in a combined offer while the user does not have a subscription or direct relationship with the telco.

“Slice and dice” wholesale is more complex, and more controversial. This involves operators selling data capacity in fine-grained “parcels” to parties other than the user, who is typically also paying for some level of access.

This type of “two-sided” business model could involve deals with consumer electronics vendors for extra high-quality streams over existing broadband lines, or to content or application providers where they pick up the bill for data transmission rather than the end-user.

Any way one looks at the matter, it appears that various wholesale or enterprise revenues are going to be a bigger part of the overall mobile revenue stream in the future.

AT&T: iPhone 4 Pre-Order Sales Were Ten Times Higher Than First Day 3GS Sales

AT&T says sales of the iPhone 4 were 10-times higher than the first day of pre-ordering for the iPhone 3G S last year.

AT&T also said that they are suspending pre-ordering today in order to fulfill the orders they’ve already received.

AT&T: iPhone 4 Pre-Order Sales Were Ten Times Higher Than First Day 3GS Sales

Apple Apologizes For iPhone 4 Pre-Order Failure

Apple on Wednesday said that it saw the largest numbers of iPhone 4 pre-orders the company has ever taken in a single day, with 600,000 devices sold already.

Apple confirmed widespread reports that order and approval systems have failed, faced with the pressure of iPhone 4 demand, and apologized for the technical hiccups. Too much success can do that to a provisioning and ordering system.

Apple Apologizes For iPhone 4 Pre-Order Screw Ups - PCWorld

U.S. Mobile Broadband Will Grow 36% to 2014

According to a new International Data Corporation forecast, the U.S. mobile broadband market will grow from 6.5 million subscribers in 2009 to 30.2 million in 2014, which accounts for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.1 percent over the forecast period.

Carrier-subsidized netbooks and tablet devices such as the Apple iPad are driving the trend.

IDC - Press Release - prUS22380410