Mobile Advertising Grows 79% in 2010

Some people might say an upside surprise for mobile advertising spending in 2010 means that mobile marketing has broken through to reach the mainstream of digital advertising in 2010. Others would be happy to note the unexpected growth, even if it is still a bit premature to call mobile advertising "mainstream."

This year, U.S. mobile ad spending will be up 79 percent to reach $743 million, eMarketer now forecasts. That growth will slow somewhat to still-dramatic double-digit rates as spending hits over $1.1 billion in 2011 and more than $2.5 billion by 2014. 

Earlier estimates had called for 2010 growth to perhaps $570 million. 

For now, however, text messaging still is the largest channel, with spending of $327 million estimated for 2010. But growth is fastest for video advertising, mobile display and mobile search.

Still, $743 million is a fraction of all U.S. advertising. That is a market worth about $170 billion, so it is a bit premature to talk about how "mainstream" mobile advertising or mobile marketing has become. 

Online advertising is still about 12 percent of total advertising. If you are looking for where the growth is, online and mobile are good bets. But if you are looking at where organizations and businesses spend their money today, mobile would not be one of the largest buckets.

Mobile Ad Spending Up Nearly 80% in 2010

60% of Office Workers Say They Don't Need Their Offices

 A new study funded by Cisco found that 60 percent of workers around the world believe that they do not need to be in the office anymore to be productive. This was especially the case in Asia and Latin America. More than nine of 10 employees in India (93 percent) said they did not need to be in the office to be productive. This sentiment was extremely prevalent in China (81 percent) and Brazil (76 percent) as well.


In fact, their desire to be mobile and flexible is so strong that 60 percent of workers would choose jobs that were lower-paying but allowed work outside of the office over higher salaried jobs that lacked such flexibility. 


According to the study, which involved surveys of 2,600 workers and IT professionals in 13 countries, 13 percent of respondents noted that having the flexibility to work anywhere would dictate their company loyalty, while 12 percent said it would have an impact on their choice of jobs. In fact, two-thirds of respondents said they would take a job with less pay and more flexibility in device usage, access to social media and mobility over a higher-paying job with less flexibility.

A Whale of a Problem

The stage now is set for huge conflict between state public-sector workers and taxpayers, and the reason is pension obligations.

Because almost all states are required to balance their budgets, general fund monies must be used to pay pension obligations if the pension funds come up short. They certainly will do that. The funds are generally underfunded, and make assumptions about fund returns that simply are not credible.

Utah has calculated it will have to commit 10 percent of its general fund for 25 years just to pay for the effects of the 2008 stockmarket crash, for example.

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States use the expected return on the assets in their pension funds as a discount rate. This is often around eight percent, and reflects the performance of the past 20 to 30 years.

However, such returns will be hard to come by in future. Given current bond yields of two percent and a typical portfolio with 60 percent  in equities and 40 percent in bonds, a total return of eight requires a return of 12 percent on equities.

With American equities yielding just two percent to 2.5 percent, that in turn would require dividends to grow by nine percent to 10 percent a year.

That simply is not plausible. In a state such as Colorado, nearly 55 percent of all funds will have to be spent on pension obligations, effectively reducing the amount of money available to fund on-going operations by fully half....IF investment returns come in at an overall eight percent.

That isn't going to happen. Nor do these forecasts take into account financial "black swan" events that destroy huge amounts of equity.

Who would bet that between now and 2022  there will not have been at least one major financial event that wipes out huge chunks of pension plan equity?

These forecasts are not realistic. Colorado will wind up spending most of its general fund revenues to pay pensions, unless something quite dramatic happens, and quite soon. That is not a "political" issue. It is a simple mater of public finance getting severely out of whack. Something will have to be done, and it won't be pleasant.

Either we get an unpleasant fix, or we decide now that in 12 years there is no money to fund on-going state government services.

The Value of an Existing Customer

In most cases, the value of an existing customer is much higher than the value of a newly-acquired customer, for a number of reasons.

(click on the image for a larger view, once to open, and then click on the image again and it gets large enough to read easily)

It is, for example. six to seven times more costly to gain one new customer than to retain one existing customer, Flowtown argues. Also, boosting customer retention rates by five percent can boost profits from five percent to 95 percent.

The Value of an Existing Customer / Flowtown (@flowtown):

Embedded Devices Haven't Sold That Well, AT&T Says

In business and politics, there often are several ways to interpret virtually any public statement, and some comments by David Haight, AT&T vice president of product development for emerging devices, is probably one of those.

On one hand, AT&T itself has had modest success selling "embedded devices," typically netbooks sold at a discount with a two-year mobile data plan costing up to $60 a month.

3G-enabled laptops haven't sold all that well for several reasons. The cost difference between a device that uses Wi-Fi-only for connectivity, and a version using mobile broadband is too great, they're hard to find in stores, and service plans are just too expensive, he argues.

Users are able to figure out on their own that getting at $100 or $200 discount on a $300 device, but then having to pay $60 a month for two years, is not such a great deal. Sure, the user gets $100 or $200 of value upfront, but then pays $1440 over two years in service fees. With the growing availability of "free" Wi-Fi hotspots and at-home and in-office Wi-Fi, that might not seem such a great deal.

AT&T obviously has found, in introducing "no contract" and lower-priced access plans for Apple iPads, that consumers prefer both the absence of contract commitments and lower recurring prices.

AT&T might also be signaling its belief that Verizon Wireless will have little luck bundling iPads with MiFi service, since that is basically what AT&T had been trying to do with its embedded devices. Verizon hopes to prove AT&T wrong, offering plans ranging from $20 to $50 a month.

AT&T Exec: New Laptop Service Plans, More Tablets Coming

Groupon Social Coupons Unprofitable for a Third of Marketers

About a third of the merchants extending Groupon discounts say they have lost money on the deals, a study by Rice University’s Jones School of Business found. Which is to say 70 percent of offers did generate a profit for the firms offering the deals.

The study of 150 businesses running Groupon promotions between June 2009 and August 2010 found that those coupon campaigns were unprofitable for 32 percent of the businesses that ran them. And more than 40 percent of the response group said they would not run another social coupon promotion again.

According to Jones School associate professor Utpal Dholakia, the author of the research, the profitability of a coupon promotion can be measured by two main criteria: whether customers redeeming the coupons spent more than the Groupon amount, and what percentage of those customers came back again to shop without a Groupon offer.

Those survey respondents who said the Groupon campaigns had not been profitable for them reported that only about 25 percent of redeemers spent more than the face value of the coupon. They also said that about 13 percent of those coupon holders came back a second time to shop at full price.

One way to look at matters then is that even when an unprofitable promotion has been run, about 13 percent of customers came back to buy again, paying full retail prices. Whether that is worth doing or not depends on the offers being made. But a campaign that provides sales lift of 13 percent does not, on its face, seem a bad investment. It all depends on how the offers are constructed.

Groupon Social Coupons Unprofitable for One-third of Marketers

Verizon Wireless to Offer $15 Data Plan

Verizon Wireless plans to introduce a less expensive, $15-a-month data plan for smartphone customers, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

The  plan gives customers 150 megabytes of data. Customers who exceed the monthly limit will be charged extra. Verizon Wireless apparently will continue to offer its unlimited data plan for $29.99 a month.

The new $15 plan will be available on Oct. 28, 2010 for new customers, and requires a two-year contract. Existing customers have the option of moving to the less expensive option, or keeping their current plan.

California's $500-billion pension time bomb

The state of California's real unfunded pension debt clocks in at more than $500 billion, nearly eight times greater than officially reported.

That's the finding from a study released by Stanford University's public policy program, confirming a recent report with similar, stunning findings from Northwestern University and the University of Chicago, the Los Angeles Times reports.

Why should Californians care? Because this year's unfunded pension liability is next year's budget cut. For a glimpse of California's budgetary future, look no further than the $5.5 billion diverted this year from higher education, transit, parks and other programs in order to pay just a tiny bit toward current unfunded pension and healthcare promises.

That figure is set to triple within 10 years and, absent reform, to continue to grow, crowding out funding for many programs vital to the overwhelming majority of Californians.

In other words, at some point, virtually all the money in the educastion budget will go towards paying pension obligations, and zero for educating children. Most states have some version of the problem.

Economists talk about government spending crowding out private investment. Now we've got pension obligations crowding out on-going programs. If we aren't careful, we'll relatively soon have virtually all tax collections supporting debt service and pensions. 

California's $500-billion pension time bomb - Los Angeles Times

More Than 20% of Consumer Broadband Lines Now Come with VoIP

Voice over IP is becoming increasingly important to service providers as a bundle component, say researchers at Point Topic.

“Over 22 percent of consumer broadband lines worldwide now come with a Voice over IP service, and in some markets, such as France, penetration surpasses 90 percent.

Point Topic says there are more than 100 million consumer VoIP subscriptions in service, while another 12 million subscribers were added in the first half of 2010,” says Point Topic’s Senior Analyst John Bosnell.

In some cases, the apparent "killer app" status is likely an artifact of how services can be bought. In many countries, a broadband connection requires purchase of a voice line as well. It might be going too far to say voice is the killer app for broadband access. For most people, Internet access likely is that driver. But voice has emerged as a key feature for broadband access packages, at the very least.

More Than One in Five Consumer Broadband Lines Now Come with VoIP

Android Passes iPhone in Revenue, Millennial Media Says

Millennial Media, which claims to have the largest data set of any third-party U.S. mobile ad network, reports that Android revenue exceeded iPhone-only revenue for its network, in September 2010.

Android requests grew by 26 percent from the previous month,and 1283 percent since January.

Anrdoid Passes iPhone in Revenue on Major Ad Network

Pricing Trends in the Web Conferencing Business

Prices for Web conferencing services continue to decline as the technology hits early stage mainstream adoption, say researchers at Frost & Sullivan.

Vendors are offering deeper discounts as they get into larger enterprise deals, bringing the average selling prices down by 10 percent to15 percent annually.

Vendors are addressing the market with a wide range of pricing models, but as the market matures, buyers are moving to named-user pricing. Frost & Sullivan estimates that more than 75 percent of revenues for Web conferencing services come from named-user licenses.

No Jitter | blog | Pricing Trends in the Web Conferencing Market

40% of Small Businesses Use Social Networks

Small business owners increasingly are tapping into social media to reach customers and prospects. Four-in-ten now indicate they use at least one social media platform; Facebook is by far the most popular platform, with 27 percent of relevant businesses on board. By comparison, only one-in-ten business owners a year ago were using online social networking to market their businesses.

Business confidence also seems to be improving, if frustratingly slowly. Over the last eighteen months, business owners have been streamlining business operations and cutting costs. Now, as a result of those tough decisions, many business owners appear to be in stronger financial position to jump on growth opportunities that might materialize.

Fewer report having cash flow issues (53 percent, down from 60 percent this spring), and while hiring plans remain stable overall, the number of business owners who plan to hire full time employees in the next six months has doubled to 10 percent versus spring 2010. That's the good news.

The bad news is that roughly half of small business owners still say cash flow issues are a problem. And 90 percent of small businesses continue to say they have no plans to hire full-time workers in the next six months.

While their confidence in the overall economy declined, more business owners said they thought sales over the next six months would be higher compared to last year (39 percent) and employee morale has shown modest improvements.

Of course, the same survey also can be read as suggesting 61 percent of small businesses do not think sales revenue will be higher in the next six months.

Small Business Owners Poised to Capitalize on Growth Opportunities, According to the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor

4G Revenue Model Still Emerging?

Up to a point, the business model for fourth-generation wireless is "more:" more speed and more bandwidth. Up to a point, the business model also is about "less:" Less cost to deliver end users bits. Beyond those basics, there remains much cloudiness about how additional value--and revenue--can be added.

The wireless industry remains deeply divided on how best to monetize the deployment of next-generation wireless technologies, says Light Reading.

In his opening comments at the event, Heavy Reading senior consultant Berge Ayvazian shared research findings that show how average revenue per user figures flatten out over time unless a mobile data service provider is able to offer value-added services.

It isn't clear whether 4G will be any different than 3G on that score, unless compelling new applications and revenue models can be created.

Light Reading Mobile - 4G/LTE - Revenue Still the 4G Question

Fiber to the Home for Smart Grid Apps

Survey Says: 79 Percent of Consumers Have Experienced Poor Voice Quality with Call Centers

According to a recent survey undertaken by the Customer Experience Foundation on behalf of Empirix Inc., 79 percent of consumers have experienced poor voice quality. The study asked 3,925 consumers about their experiences in dealing with contact centers and identified technology related trends and common problems that are affecting customer service and costing organizations around the world billions of dollars.

The high percentage of global consumers that highlighted poor voice quality as a common problem points to a real issue in the industry.

The study also revealed that poor voice quality drives down sales volumes, increases call lengths and the number of calls that are forced to be redialed. And as a result, churn rates can increase for both customers and staff. The magnitude of the problem is indicative of how much businesses are struggling to come to terms with this issue, while consumers are quickly losing patience."

Survey Says: 79 Percent of Consumers Have Experienced Poor Voice Quality with Call Centers Costing Organizations Billions Globally

http://beconfident.empirix.com/mk/get/ENT-WS-WP-cefpoorvq-092010