Analysts at the Federal Communications Commission appear to agree with forecasts that project 90 percent of the U.S. population is likely to have access to broadband networks capable of peak download speeds in excess of 50 Mbps as cable systems upgrade to DOCSIS 3.0. See
http://www.broadband.gov/download-plan.
But FCC analysts also estimate that about 15 percent of the U.S. population is likely to be able to choose between two providers, both cable a telco. At first glance, this would seem to be a problem for most telcos other than Verizon.
If in fact a large percentage of the U.S. broadband customer base does decide to buy 50-Mbps services, or even faster services, many telcos are going to be at a huge disadvantage, if one assumes broadband access will be the foundation service for most telcos.
As necessity typically is the mother of invention, one wonders whether ways of using fiber-to-neighborhood networks will be capable of upgrading to speeds not possible so far, much as cable operators are working on new ways to boost their own broadband speeds. One should not discount the possibility, or the incentives for suppliers to come up with such solutions.
On the other hand, "headline" speeds, as important as they are for marketing purposes, might not necessarily correspond to consumer buying preferences in the near term, or even in the medium term. So far, few U.S. consumers have decided 50 Mbps access services were valuable enough to buy them, where such services are available.
If that remains the case, services offering 20 Mbps or 25 Mbps might be good enough, at least for the medium term, and urban fiber-to-neighborhood networks ought to be able to reach 40 Mbps, as Qwest already offers in Denver, for example.
Telcos with lower density serving areas and longer loop lengths will find it rather expensive to match that sort of speed using any hybrid network (fiber distribution, copper access). But much might hinge on the actual state of end user demand (willingness to pay).
Nor should observers think there is no more speed that can be wrung out of all-copper access networks. A reasonable way of putting matters is that additional copper pairs can be bonded to achieve higher speeds. There are technical issues, of course, ranging from availability of requisite pairs in existing cable, and interference issues within cables. But researchers already are working on ways to create higher-speed circuits by using more extensive bonding.
Oddly enough, the dwindling number of fixed-line voice circuits actually helps to some extent, as it frees up additional copper pairs, in some cases. It isn't easy, but sometimes extensive pair bonding will prove workable. Beyond that, the costs of fiber-to-customer infrastructure continue to improve, especially where either aerial plant or underground conduit are in place.
So it is not clear that cable's current advantages are of a permanent nature. That might be the case, in some areas and perhaps in many areas. But telco executives have powerful incentives not to concede the long-term future.
And since all observers now agree that the goal of 100 Mbps, within a decade, is the aspirational target the market likely will support, technologists and business planners will be looking at any number of solutions. At one level, the issue is technological: how can it be done? At an equally important level, the issue is how to match investment to expected revenues.
One might argue that with multiple 4G wireless networks and growing use of mobile devices, actual end user demand at fixed locations might not grow as rapidly as some forecast. A large number of fast, but not super-fast connections--both mobile and fixed--might well prove quite workable.
That doesn't mean telco planners can avoid the work of figuring how to pay for and build networks running up to 100 Mbps at some medium term point in the future. But the scaling might wind up being more graceful than people sometimes assume.
