Enterprises Probably Have to Support Macs

Forrester Research analyst David Johnson says "it's time to repeal prohibition and take decisive action" and support Mac PCs in enterprises. Forrester says enterprises have t support Macs

"Mac users are your HEROes and you should enable them not hinder them," he says. Forrester uses the acronym HERO for Highly Empowered and Resourceful Operatives, what it finds are "the 17 percent of information workers who use new technologies and find innovative ways to be more productive and serve customers more effectively."

One might say that enterprises lost the battle decisively with the advent of the iPad, which is a tool enterprise workers are demanding and using in growing numbers.


The iPad once viewed as simply a consumer device for media consumption is gaining traction at the enterprise level. Some of the largest companies in the world already use or plan to use the device as an enterprise tool. The rate of enterprise adoption in Fortune 100 companies is reported to be 65 percent according the Wall Street Journal and 80 percent according to Network World. High enterprise iPad adoption

Forrester Finds Most Enterprises Still Buy Phone Systems, Not Hosted IP Telephony

A recent Forrester Research survey of 567 enterprise and smaller business users that already have adopted IP telephony shows that most buyers so far have chosen premises-based solutions.

Just four percent of respondents say they have adopted a 'hosted' IP telephony service. Another four percent reported they had adopted a 'telephony as a service solution. About five percent said their IP telephony solution was outsourced. Taking all three as a group, just 13 percent of IP telephony solutions were hosted, cloud-based or outsourced.

That might make a great deal of sense. The economics of IP telephony tend to suggest that small users can benefit from hosted or cloud-based solutions, while enterprises often can justify owning their own solutions.

The study lends credence to the cable operator strategy of targeting businesses with 20 or fewer employees, as those are the venues where the economics of buying a service are best, compared to buying a premises-based solution.

About 71 percent said their IP telephony solutions were self maintained, while 16 percent said they owned their solution, but that it also was managed by a third party.

Forrester Finds Most Enterprises Still Buy Phone Systems, Not Hosted IP Telephony - Thoughts on Carrier Evolution - Carrier Evolution

US Tablet Sales Will More Than Double This Year

Forrester Research has revised its estimate for U.S. consumer tablet purchases for 2010 upward to 10.3 million units, and the firm expects sales to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units.

Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012.

One major assumption that changed in the Forrester Research model is the replacement rate, which the firm now believes will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs.

Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be "lifestyle devices" at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC.

Forrester Research, though originally optimistic about tablet prospects, says it underestimated demand. I'd have to say I was not so sure about them, at first. There typically are two fundamental paths for a PC type device to establish a permanent place in the market. The devices must displace an existing category, or must create a brand-new category. So far, there remain elements of both types of activity.

But the longer term trend seems to be that a new category actually is being created, more akin to MP3 players than PCs. For consumers who mostly want a content consumption device, the tablet can replace a PC.

For users who must create content and "do work," the tablet represents an additional category of devices to own and use.

US Tablet Sales Will More Than Double This Year | Forrester Blogs

How Big is European Demand for Fiber-Based Access Services?

European consumers value reasonable prices and high bandwidth access services. The issue is that they seem to value affordable prices more than they do higher speeds.

At least that is the conclusion one might draw from a new survey of 13,764 European online users.

When asked about the most-important considerations when choosing a new Internet service provider, 87 percent indicated "price" was important.

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About 62 percent said the speed of the connection was important. Most other issues, ranging from technical support, installation fees and type of connection were cited by 31 percent to 35 percent of respondents.conducted by Forrester Research.


Telco fiber services might lag the headline speeds offered by cable. Ian Fogg, Forrester Research analyst, suggests that where cable might offer 100 Mbps, telcos might offer 40 Mbps to 60 Mbps.

The issue is whether the "speed gap" will matter much. One would think it would. But in other markets where very-fast services are available, at higher prices, consumers do not seem to be buying them in large numbers. "Fast enough at a lower price" seems to be the winning formula.

Enterprises Dominate Mobile Ad Spending

More than a third of interactive marketers have implemented or plan to pilot mobile search and display advertising in the next year, according to Forrester Research analyst Melissa Parrish. And just about everyone believes such spending will grow.

For that reason, Forrester Research expects that interactive marketer spending on mobile search and display will grow at a 28 percent compound annual growth rate over the next five years.

Forrester expects that mobile Internet usage will increase at a compound annual rate of 12.7 percent, with 117 million people — 36 percent of the US population — searching and browsing while using their mobile devices by 2015, Parrish says.

Mobile marketing opportunities will grow as more people use the mobile Internet, of course. At the end of 2007, only 10 percent of U.S. adult subscribers used the mobile Internet. In 2010, mobile Internet usage is up to 27 percent of mobile subscribers, representing 64 million consumers in the
United States market.

Mobile Internet users also are learning to use their mobiles to make purchases. And they aren’t just looking for the nearest coffee house; they’re buying airline tickets, researching cars, and receiving coupons for products like coffee or detergent.

Forrester forecasts that mobile search and display dollars will grow to $2.8 billion by 2015, at a
28 percent CAGR.

But critical mass still is lacking. Though mobile Internet usage is increasing rapidly, marketers still can’t get enough eyeballs on content to justify spending big bucks in the space, says Parrish.

Currently, 78 percent of the US population access the Internet at least monthly while only 21 percent access the mobile Internet. By 2015, mobile Internet usage is expected to reach 43 percent of total desktop Internet usage, making the mobile medium a much more viable channel.

Inability to track performance against spend. More than half of interactive marketers feel they have no capability to measure the ROI or brand impact of their mobile marketing campaigns.

Interactive marketers prefer performance-based campaigns and are willing to pay more for these metrics. Vendors like Google and Bing offer cost-per-click pricing for click-to-call and click-to-get-directions type activities, but mobile display is still largely based on potential impressions, an unsatisfactory metric to most marketers.

Additionally, the holy grail of mobile is location-based marketing, but it’s still unclear how the connection between location-marketing efforts and in-store purchases will occur. Vendors must develop the tools for marketers to track performance and then help marketers understand the value and how to use these new tools.

·Spending by small and mid-sized business is not having too much impact, says Parrish. Forrester’s data suggests that fully 95 percent of mobile advertising dollars currently come from companies with more than $100 million in revenue.

Though the value of mobile advertising is highly relevant to small and mid-sized businesses, which benefit greatly from local and location-specific advertising, smaller budgets and less marketing
expertise will make the percentage of overall spend from SMBs consistently less than eight percent of total mobile spend.

Concerns over privacy, specifically location and carrier information, could provoke a backlash among consumers, leading to some caution as well. Consumers consider mobile phones personal devices to a greater extent than PCs and, for that reason, might continue to expect greater privacy in a mobile context, Parrish suggests.

Is the iPad Really a PC?

"The iPad is a new kind of PC, argues Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst. If so, it might be said to be so in the same way that a high-end smartphone also is a PC, which is to say an iPad both "is" and "isn't" a PC.

The iPad’s features don’t line up with what consumers think they want. The top features that consumers say they want in their next PC — DVD drives and burners, CD drives and burners,
and Webcams — are all absent from the iPad.

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The features that the iPad does have, such as a touchscreen, are lower on the list of features buyers say they are looking for.

Two-thirds of U.S. online consumers say they want a DVD drive in their next PC, while only 22 percent want a touchscreen. This doesn’t mean that consumers won’t buy the iPad without these features, but it does mean that Apple will need to teach consumers that they can live without them in the device.

So a question yet to be answered is whether people will figure out "what" the tablet PC is, and how it can be used. Form factor might be important as users try to figure out what a device between a smartphone and a PC looks like, and what it must do to be useful.

CEOs, Managers Using Social Media for Work

You might be surprised to learn that social media is being actively used by business managers, including CEOs, to keep track of news and conduct research, in addition to keeping up with friends.

In a recent survey of 337 social media users in North America and Europe, about 84 percent of social media users indicated they use it to keep up to date on news, while 78 percent also indicated they use social media "to get ideas to help me in my job," says Nigel Fenwick, Forrester Research analyst.

"Video Will Replace Voice and Text" for Business Communications in 5 Years"

Video will become the new business norm for communication and collaboration over the next five
to 10 years, says Henry Dewing, Forrester Research analyst. In fact, says Dewing, "video will replace voice and text communications as the preferred method of communication in business and personal life."

Those of you accustomed to technology projections might agree that the direction is right, but the timing is probably wrong. Still, three years ago, most buyers and users perceived the predictions of impending video traffic as all hype, says Dewing. But a combination of technology maturity, end user demand and competitive pressures are driving interest.

As often is the case, the initial business case starts with saving money on travel costs. "Every business case for video starts with time and travel savings and describes the more effective communication possible with video, but the real value is in improving the way firms operate and conduct business with their clients to build competitive advantage without breaking the bank, says Dewing.

But if you are familiar with the business case for IP communications and IP telephony, it was the same there. People understood they could save money. But all the other advantages remain a bit unclear.

Hard dollar savings like travel costs are being used to pay the bills for all types of communications and collaboration solutions, he says. "Many businesses we speak with struggle to define the value of video beyond travel savings from implementing videoconferencing," he notes.  "The value of digital signage, video blogging, broadcast state-of-the-company speeches, and even video-enabledcollaboration is still fuzzy in the minds of IT planners today."

The hurdles might be even worse than that. Business owners might not be able to measure the "soft" advantages from collaboration very well, if at all, as generally is the case with IP communications, where, no matter what anybody tries to say, still is seen as a cost-reducing innovation.

Business video use will ramp steadily over the next five years as employees who experience video at home will demand it at work. After successful deployments at work, employees will demand more video solutions and make video a standard mode of communication, Dewing says. Follow-on deployments will occur rapidly when use is easier, when resolutions deliver more lifelike images, and when reliability makes video dependable.

Resistance is Futile: IP PBX Has Killed TDM

Forrester Research recently interviewed 516 landline voice decision-makers in North America and Europe and found that enterprises plan to increase budgets for IP telephony or IP PBX systems and services during 2007.

This is not surprising, nor shocking. It is getting hard to buy systems based on older platforms, just as it now is very hard to buy a new PC that doesn't have Vista loaded as the operating system.

New shipments of IPT outpaced those of traditional PBX systems three years ago, and the installed base of IPT lines is expected to outnumber traditional PBX lines within the next few years.

North American and European enterprises indicated that in five years most will have completed their migration to IPT. All of which continues to create a window of opportunity within which non-telco providers can sell hosted VoIP services into the consumer and smaller business markets without fear the telcos will massively convert to VoIP.

Someday, when they have lost enough share, telcos indeed will stop offering POTS and themselves become VoIP providers. But only after VoIP has completely reshaped customer expectations about what a voice service is, and how it should be packaged.

The SME customer segments remain the most promising opportunities for most competitive providers, though the cable companies have real advantages in the consumer markets.