US Tablet Sales Will More Than Double This Year

Forrester Research has revised its estimate for U.S. consumer tablet purchases for 2010 upward to 10.3 million units, and the firm expects sales to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units.

Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012.

One major assumption that changed in the Forrester Research model is the replacement rate, which the firm now believes will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs.

Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be "lifestyle devices" at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC.

Forrester Research, though originally optimistic about tablet prospects, says it underestimated demand. I'd have to say I was not so sure about them, at first. There typically are two fundamental paths for a PC type device to establish a permanent place in the market. The devices must displace an existing category, or must create a brand-new category. So far, there remain elements of both types of activity.

But the longer term trend seems to be that a new category actually is being created, more akin to MP3 players than PCs. For consumers who mostly want a content consumption device, the tablet can replace a PC.

For users who must create content and "do work," the tablet represents an additional category of devices to own and use.

US Tablet Sales Will More Than Double This Year | Forrester Blogs