Zynga Files for IPO, Bubble Building?

Zynga Inc., a company that sells imaginary tractors and other make-believe goods in online games, for real-world money, plans to go public in a deal that could value it as high as $20 billion, the Wall Street Journal reports. See Zynga Files for IPO - WSJ.com (subscription required).

Those sorts of eye-popping numbers should have the rational person thinking there might be another Internet investment bubble building. Others will make all sorts of arguments about why at least some of the valuations are justified.

Are we in another tech bubble? You will hear lots of people denying that thesis, but they were doing that the last time, and although the refrain last time was "things are different," this time people are saying "Internet assets are not over-valued; the firms have actual revenues" and so forth. What is harder to dispute is that growth expectations are quite high. How high is "too high" is the current question.

Keep in mind what happened in the last tech bubble, though. Lofty valuations crashed hard. From the bubble peak, sometime between 1999 and very early 2001, valuations plummeted to about 10 percent of peak. Valuations too rich by an order of magnitude was the rule. Some of us would say it remains a good rule.

Google, Among Others, Considering Bid for Hulu

Google apparently is among the companies that Hulu advisors have reached out to as they begin to hunt for a bidder, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Yahoo apparently also is interested in potentially bidding. Hulu's bankers were setting up meetings with a wide array of technology and media companies, though, and it remains unclear whether Hulu's owners would be interested in seeing Google, with its YouTube ambitions, get the asset. At the same time, some would argue that Hulu is essentially hobbled, strategically, because its media owners do not agree on strategy, and in any case remain profoundly "conflicted" about how aggressive they ought to be in encouraging online and over the top distribution.

What seems clear enough is that only an owner primarily interested in distribution alone could give Hulu the marketing push it might require. Right now, Hulu can't clearly push the service as hard as others might, because it would like to succeed, but not too much; wants to grow new channels and protect existing channels.

Google, Among Others, Considering Bid for Hulu - WSJ.com (subscription required)

The US Group Buying Universe

When it comes to social shopping, group buying or "deal of the day" services, there doubtless are doubters. "Just a fad," some will say. The argument for why social shopping is not a fad is that it actually might represent the next generation of the local advertising and local promotion business, functions that already exist, already are sizable and would seem to be poised for redefinition as mobile phones, location services and mobile payments become more popular.

As always, being "too early to market" can be fatal. Woot, founded in 2004, currently has over 1.4 million unique monthly visits. Groupon, founded in 2008, has 29.1 million unique monthly visits. . Mercata, another early mover, was shut down in 2001.

LivingSocial is around half the size of Groupon, at 14.3 million unique monthly visits, with 301 US cities to Groupon’s 182. Yeah that’s about five percent of the US population visiting the site monthly.

The US Group Buying Universe

"Owned" Media is Media

Content marketing is a bit like the television business. Any single person might have regular access to hundreds of channels, but most will watch only a handful, perhaps six to seven on a regular basis, and possibly a dozen, including those channels watched only occasionally. Most people never dwell at most of the hundreds of channels.

Keep in mind that “audience” creates the revenue opportunity. Viewers create the advertising opportunity, because viewers are potential customers. For most brands, the analogy is that paid, earned and owned media are attempts to get access to an audience that consists of potential buyers.

From an owned media perspective, the issue is how to become one of the few sites prospects turn to, daily, weekly or frequently, to get information about the issues, opportunities and context of the business they are in. In that sense, a content marketing effort has to try and operate like any entertainment video channel.

If your prospects are going to spend a limited amount of time with any content site in their business segment, you want your “channel” to be among the handful of places a prospect regularly goes to learn things. That doesn’t mean what those prospects typically want to learn about are the specifications for your latest product.

What they are most likely more interested in is the news flow that alerts them to opportunities and threats to their own business, not the brand’s opportunities.

"If you think about your online patterns, you have a tendency to only visit a couple of various websites every day,” says consultant Pat Miller. “While you may stray from these sites ever so often and look at other webpages while doing a search or aiming to waste time, for the most part your web content history is mostly focused around twelve or so pages which you visit religiously.”

“This isn’t a fluke, it is because of just one sound truth: you enjoy and depend on such sites,” he notes. Read more here. That’s as important a truth for brand content marketing as it is for traditional media outlets. People are busy and will create a habit of seeking out information from a relative handful of trusted sources on a regular basis. So the key is create a habit about returning to your own site.

“Folks stay with websites that they like,” Miller says. “They also follow websites they feel protected on,” in the sense of  not having to worry about phishing attacks or other dangers.

“Having said that, we have come to only rely on websites that have professional looking articles and a professional looking design,” Miller says. “That’s the basis behind web content marketing."

Intuit Buys Mobile Money Ventures

Intuit Inc. has acquired mobile Web banking technology assets from Mobile Money Ventures, a global solutions provider of next-generation mobile financial solutions. The deal supports Intuit Financial Services' position as a leading online and mobile technology provider to financial institutions, Intuit said.

The deal allows Intuit to directly manage customer support, and have full control over the design of its mobile Web banking solutions.

Customers of more than 320 U.S. banks and credit unions use Intuit's existing mobile Web technology, which was provided by MMV. Intuit also provides text message and downloadable application solutions to enable financial institution customers to conduct their critical banking tasks from virtually any mobile phone." Intuit Press Release - Intuit Buys Mobile Money Ventures Platform to Bolster Mobile Banking Capabilities.

Mobile Money Ventures, based in San Mateo, Calif., was formed in 2008 as a joint venture that combined the strengths of Citigroup, a leading, global financial services company, and SK Telecom Americas, an early-stage technology innovator. As an Intuit partner, MMV provided a proven mobile Web banking solution currently reaching more than 400,000 consumers. MMV's offering is optimized for all major handsets and screen sizes, making it right for all customers - regardless of their mobile device.

Mobile Money in Asia

Asia Eyes Growth in Mobile Money

Why Mobile Money is Important in Developing Regions

For many, mobile money transfers are intriguing not because they represent a new business and industry, though that is important. Making mobile phones function as a virtual bank or ATM in places where the banking infrastructure is under-developed is important as an economic development tool.

Visa outlines ‘digital wallet’ vision

Visa’s head of mobile innovation, Bill Gajda, says mobile devices are becoming “true digital wallets.” That's an interesting way of putting things, as you might have been thinking Visa is mostly interested in the "payment" or transaction part of the mobile money business. It is, of course. But the related businesses, ranging from advertising, local commerce and credentials management to loyalty and marketing programs are not areas Visa might see as outside the scope of its extended ambitions.

Referencing what he described as “the convergence of mobile and payment networks,” Gajda’s vision for a mobile wallet focuses on “mobilizing existing Visa accounts, extending mobile banking to payments, enhancing the consumer payment experience, enabling customer control, and offering new transaction types."

Visa outlines ‘digital wallet’ vision; signs up 100,000 payWave users in Korea

The History of Money According to Barclay's

Barclay's takes a look at the history of money, as it promotes new mobile money ventures.

Egypt Mobile Operator to Launch Mobile Money Transfer Service

Mobile phone operators in Egypt are planning to launch money transfer services. Of the country's some 80 million inhabitants, analysts estimate that only about 10 percent of the population owns and uses a credit card. Mobile money transfer services, which recently received an initial green light from authorities in Egypt, could assist the millions who don't have access to a credit card or bank account, while also helping line the pockets of mobile operators.

"In a country where a small number use credit cards, there's a potential for mobile payment as an alternative for the circulation of cash,"said Hassan Kabbani, chief executive officer of the Egyptian Co. for Mobile Services, better known as Mobinil, the country's biggest mobile operator by subscribers. Read more..

The launch date for mobile money transfer services, or MMTS, in Egypt, is still to be determined, but comes at a time when similar systems started in Africa have proved a raging success."

Apple, EMC, Ericsson, Microsoft, RIM, Sony Share Nortel Patents

Nortel Networks Corporation has sold about 6,000 patents to a consortium of bidders including Apple, EMC, Ericsson, Microsoft, Research In Motion and Sony. Google is not on the list.

The sale includes more than 6,000 patents and patent applications spanning wireless, wireless 4G, data networking, optical, voice, internet, service provider, semiconductors and other patents. The extensive patent portfolio touches nearly every aspect of telecommunications and additional markets as well, including Internet search and social networking.

Given the amount of patent infringement activity in the mobile business these days, the deal essentially means Apple, Microsoft, RIM and Sony Ericsson have gained some protection against such lawsuits, the typical resolution being cross licensing between the parties. But a firm needs a trove of patents to have something to trade.

The sale increases the likelihood of patent infringement suits against Google, because Google will not be seen as having sufficient protection in the form of intellectual property to cross license.

Nortel Announces the Winning Bidder of Its Patent Portfolio for a Purchase Price of US$4.5 Billion - MarketWatch:

Smart Phones Outsell Feature Phones in U.S. Market

It was only a matter of time before sales of smart phones eclipsed sales of feature phones, and according to Nielsen Wire, that time is now. It will take a while before the installed base of smart phones becomes a majority, but that, too, is inevitable.

$4 Billion North American Backhaul Market in 2015

The market for wholesale backhaul services in North America will grow from $2.45 billion in 2010 to $3.9 billion in 2015, with the majority of this growth coming from Ethernet backhaul, according to Yankee Group analyst Jennifer Pigg.

Average macrocell backhaul requirements were 10 Mbps in 2008 (seven T1s, five E1s). Today’s requirements are 35 Mbps in 2011, and by 2015, Yankee Group predicts they will demand 100 Mbps.
The Yankee Group analysis suggests 66 percent of rural cell towers support at least two mobile operators while suburban towers house up to six antennas, while urban towers can house 12 to 20 antennas, belonging to multiple operators and networks.

LightSquared GPS, Aeronautical Communications Interference Could Easily be Fatal

If you have been around spectrum policy long enough, you will early have learned that existing licensed users have enormous political leverage. So the fact that LightSquared interferes with both aeronautical communications and the GPS system could be a fatal problem. A spectrum owner simply will not be allowed to launch a new service that is shown to disrupt existing users, and given the public safety angles to both GPS and aeronautical communications, the demonstrated interference to both types of applications will continue to face a very-high burden of proof.

LightSquared believes it has solutions, but it will have to prove those solutions work to the satisfaction of the existing users who want certainty there will be no interference. Vacating spectrum closest to the GPS frequencies should help, in principle. The issue is that the transmitted power differences between LightSquared signals and GPS satellites is so enormous that even that protection could be problematic.

If adjacent signals transmit at equivalent levels, filters and spacing are effective. The issue for LightSquared is highly unequal transmitted power levels. Cellular networks such as LightSquared's transmit at much higher power than do satellite-based systems, as much as one billion times as high, according to some critics. In tests, the LTE network overwhelmed GPS receivers, such as in-car navigation systems, that were trying to lock on to weaker signals coming from GPS satellites.

GPS device sales total $20 billion per year, and about $3 trillion worth of commerce each year relies on the U.S.-built system, said Roy Kienitz, under secretary for policy at the U.S. Department of Transportation.

One initiative that would be endangered by LightSquared is NextGen, a new air traffic control system designed to improve safety that relies on GPS, Kienitz said. The Federal Aviation Administration and airline industry have already invested $8 billion in NextGen, he said.

LightSquared faces more turbulence over GPS - Computerworld

"Insane Demand" for Google+

Google wants a controlled launch of Google+, its suite of social applications. On June 29, 2011 it was allowing some users to give "invites" to people. Apparently so many people were signing up that Google had to close the invite process.

“We’ve shut down invite mechanism for the night. Insane demand,” Google’s head of social Vic Gundotra said. “We need to do this carefully, and in a controlled way.”

Google launched on June 28, 2011 to a small cadre of users. That the demand was strong enough for Google to turn off invites is telling. For Google, a company that has previously failed with social projects like Buzz and Wave, it’s a sign that consumers haven’t yet written it off when it comes to social services.

Google opens up, then closes Google invites due to “insane demand” | VentureBeat