Zynga Files for IPO, Bubble Building?

Zynga Inc., a company that sells imaginary tractors and other make-believe goods in online games, for real-world money, plans to go public in a deal that could value it as high as $20 billion, the Wall Street Journal reports. See Zynga Files for IPO - WSJ.com (subscription required).

Those sorts of eye-popping numbers should have the rational person thinking there might be another Internet investment bubble building. Others will make all sorts of arguments about why at least some of the valuations are justified.

Are we in another tech bubble? You will hear lots of people denying that thesis, but they were doing that the last time, and although the refrain last time was "things are different," this time people are saying "Internet assets are not over-valued; the firms have actual revenues" and so forth. What is harder to dispute is that growth expectations are quite high. How high is "too high" is the current question.

Keep in mind what happened in the last tech bubble, though. Lofty valuations crashed hard. From the bubble peak, sometime between 1999 and very early 2001, valuations plummeted to about 10 percent of peak. Valuations too rich by an order of magnitude was the rule. Some of us would say it remains a good rule.