Net Subscriber Growth Falls 36% at Major U.S. Service Providers in First Quarter 2012

The largest U.S. mobile service providers experienced a 36 percent year-over-year fall-off of wireless net additions, causing a 32 percent decline in revenue-generating unit (RGU) additions during the first quarter of 2012, according to Fitch Ratings.

Some would argue that points to the maturation or saturation of the U.S. mobile market. 


The largest telecommunication service providers added approximately 2.7 million RGUs during
the first quarter of 2012, led by approximately 2.5 million wireless subscriber additions, according to Fitch Ratings.


Fitch estimates the largest wireless service providers activated approximately 6.8 million smart phones during the first quarter of 2012, reflecting a 19 percent decline relative to the smart phone activation activity during the year earlier period.

1Q 12 Subscriber Analysis	Contract	No contract	Wholesale and Connected Devices	Total
AT&T	187,000 -530,000	125,000 -34,000	414,000 -1,207,000	726,000 -1,771,000
Sprint	(192,000) -353,000	489,000 -18,000	785,000 -169,000	1,082,000
T-Mobile	(510,000) +196,000	249,000 +29,000	448,000 +487,000	187,000 +713,000
Verizon Wireless	501,000 -706,000	223,000 -29,000	*	724,000*
Leap Wireless		258,000 +79,000		258,000 +79,000
Metro PCS		131,000 -66,000		131,000 -66,000
US Cellular	(38,000) -18,000	4,000 -3,000		(34,000) -21,000
Clearwire *		49,000 +18,000	537,000 -367,000	586,000 -287,000
Tracfone * (MVNO)		369,000 -124,000		369,000 -124,000
Total	(52,000) -1,711,000	1,897,000 -86,000	1,815,000 -266,000	4,029,000 -1,694,000

source

Apple Hasn't Yet Chosen its Mobile Payments Strategy

Apple hasn't made a move yet, in mobile payments, though its Passbook mobile app does provide the "wallet" or "credentials storing" function of a mobile wallet service. Whether mobile payments will be a feature or the foundation for a new category of devices is a reasonable question. 


Apple historically has done best when it creates a new device category, or at least transforms an existing category. So far, it does not appear Apple is satisfied it can do either of those things in the mobile payments space, yet. But expect Apple to move, sooner or later. 


But only after it has figured out the value proposition, revenue model and business approach.

Prepaid Business is Shifting

According to NPD's Mobile Phone Track, 33 percent of phones bought are for no contract plans. And though much of that demand is driven by cost-conscious consumers, a new segment seems to be growing, namely purchases by consumers who simply do not want service contracts, though they otherwise could afford a post-paid plan. 


You might argue there now is a growing "pay as you go" segment, in addition to the traditional prepaid customers. 


Most larger mobile service providers are not especially fond of prepaid retail plans, for the simple reason that postpaid average revenue per user is higher. On the other hand, many mobile service providers who have targeted cost-conscious customers, and most mobile virtual network operators, tend to rely on prepaid packaging.


The latest wrinkle is a growing willingness on the part of service providers to consider ways of reducing handset subsidies. One way to accomplish that objective is to sell phones at full retail, without contract. 

And if that sounds like the "prepaid" model, it is. In fact, some believe a growing number of consumers are going to opt for "bringing their own phones" and buying service without need of a contract. 

But it is complicated. Carriers might not like paying handset subsidies, but they do like the churn-reducing contracts. Carriers might prefer the higher operating income from lower subsidies, but they also like the greater predictability of contract revenue.

In fact, AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets President CEO Ralph de la Vega has said the growth opportunity in this country is in postpaid data, not in prepaid voice. AT&T's revenue growth of over $1.2 billion in 2010 for example, was more than twice the revenue growth for the entire U.S. prepaid industry. 

But consumer demand for prepaid continues to grow. In the U.S. wireless market, mobile service providers appear to have lost subscribers from contract-based plans for the first time in the first quarter of 2012.

That doesn't mean demand for mobile service is declining, only that demand is shifting towards prepaid plans.

The seven largest U.S. phone companies, representing more than 95 percent of the market, lost a combined 52,000 subscribers from contract-based plans in the January to March period, according to a tally by the Associated Press.

According to The NPD Group, prepaid now is a major reason even smart phones are gaining traction.

Top U.S. Smartphone Manufacturers	Q1'12
Apple	29%
Samsung	24%
HTC	15%
Motorola	10%
LG	7%
RIM Blackberry	5%

The rise of the pre-paid market contributed to Samsung’s growth in the first quarter of 2012. Android devices accounted for 79 percent of the prepaid smartphone market in the first quarter of 2012, for example.


NPD analysts have compared the end user cost of a a Virgin Mobile prepaid account and a similar contract-based offering from parent Sprint. The no contract solution shows a consumer cost saving starting in the 11^th month, NPD argues. 

NPD data also shows a steady growth in prepaid plan purchases, with a drop in indivisual postpaid plans. 

Verizon Filing Highlights Regulatory Chaos

It has been obvious for some decades that traditional methods of "regulating" distinct industries was going to become complicated as virtually all services and media could be carried over a single infrastructure, by firms that once were in distinct businesses, with different regulatory frameworks.

Verizon now is testing those frameworks, as it argues that network neutrality rules violate its free speech rights under the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

In the past, newspapers and other media have been essentially "unregulated." TV and radio broadcasters have had more regulation, as have video service providers, while telecom companies have had the most extensive regulation.

So Verizon now argues that broadband providers have "editorial discretion" to give priority to their own Web content, and the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's net neutrality rules limiting that discretion is a violation of providers' free speech rights.

That is the same framework that governs cable TV and other video service provider services, so the argument is not unusual.

"Just as a newspaper is entitled to decide which content to publish and where, broadband providers may feature some content over others," Verizon argues.

The debate is not likely to end there, though, no matter what the courts rule. Today, contestants that provide identical services, such as cable TV and telco entities, are regulated under distinct and different frameworks. Beyond that "unfair" treatment, there is the broader issue of how to reconcile the "media" model of "no regulation" with the common carrier "heavy regulation" models, when a single company provides services in virtually every regulatory bucket.

When Will Amazon Become a Service Provider?

Some think it’s just a matter of time before Amazon starts reselling wireless data services on its own, under its own brand name.


Offering prepaid cellular service wouldn’t be a huge stretch for Amazon. The company has offered its “WhisperNet” service since the very first Kindle, which uses Sprint’s EVDO network to offer anytime data connectivity to its e-readers, some would argue.


The objective likely would be to encourage more users to buy Amazon-branded tablets and smart phones, growing the potential audience for sales of Amazon digital and offline products.


The notion that Amazon will become a service provider seems less and less unusual. 

1/3 of U.S. Homes Have Cut Voice Cord

Some 34 percent of U.S.  homes used only mobile devices for phone service during the second half of 2011, an increase of 2.4 percentage points since the first half of 2011.

One might also infer that perhaps half of all U.S. homes might be candidates for going “mobile only,” as nearly one of every six American homes (16 percent) received all or almost all calls on wireless telephones despite also having a landline telephone, according to the July–December 2011 National Health Interview Survey of household communications.

In addition to those mobile-only households, among households with both landline and wireless telephones, 29.9 percent received all or almost all calls on mobile phones.

During the second six months of 2011, approximately 41 million adults (17.8 percent) lived in wireless-mostly households. This prevalence has remained largely unchanged since January 2010.

Hispanic adults (43.3 percent) were more likely than non-Hispanic white adults (29 percent) or non-Hispanic black adults (36.8 percent) to be living in households with wireless telephones only.

Among all wireless-only adults, the proportion aged 35 and over has increased steadily. In the second six months of 2011, half of wireless-only adults (49.6 percent) were aged 35 and over, up from 40.3 percentin the first 6 months of 2008.

What remains to be seen is whether different packaging and pricing of voice services could, or will, halt the landline slide. At least in principle, the new Verizon Wireless pricing of network access, which includes unlimited domestic texting and calling, could guarantee that use of voice and texting does not drop without end.

Amazon Smart Phone Could Eventually Lead to Key Industry Change

Rumors about an Amazon.com smart phone have been circulating, off and on, for a couple of years. They are circulating anew, suggesting that Amazon does want to field a branded smart phone, Bloomberg  reports.

Foxconn International Holdings, the Chinese device manufacturer, reportedly is working with Amazon on the device.


The interesting angle, some of us might say, is "why" Amazon wants to market its own smart phone. It doesn't especially care about voice or texting. What it wants is one more widely-deployed screen that can be the foundation for selling digital books, songs and movies. 


As with tablets, the smart phone now is viewed as a primary content consumption appliance. Of course, at some later point in time, service providers that make their money providing voice, texting and mobile broadband access might have to contend with something new, namely competitors with a different revenue model. 


In other words, mobile service providers might someday face competitors who would consider "giving away the product you sell," as they will have another revenue model, namely content and other sales. 


Amazon and Apple both have shown no hesitation to merchandise something to sell something else. In Apple's case, content is merchandised to sell gadgets. For Amazon, gadgets are merchandised to sell content and products. 


Someday, that might even encourage those firms, or others, to offer connectivity as well as gadgets and content, with the likelihood that connectivity revenue is merchandised to sell either gadgets or content or products. 

Will Apple iOS Platform Match or Eclipse Windows?

Historically, Windows has sold multiples of Apple devices. But that was when "devices" mean personal computers. These days, tablets and smart phones are seen by many as changing the equation. 


By some estimates, the Windows device lead peaked in 2004. So if one counts smart phones, tablets and PCs as the "universe of devices," Apple iOS might reach parity with Windows soon. 

New Bubble Metrics

Five years after the "dot.bomb" or Internet bubble, some would argue, investors already were at it again. Though many had suggested unprofitable technology companies with less than $100 million in revenue would not be able to "go public," that was happening.


By 2005, in other words, what had been "learned" in the aftermath of the Internet bubble were lost. In fact, some would argue matters are worse today, than in 2000 and 2001. 

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One Derecho Wrecks "Availability" Performance for the Whole Year

All it takes to degrade a 99.999 percent availability is a hurricane, derecho or other widespread weather or natural event. That "five nines" standard means annual outages of about five minutes, 26 seconds. 


Verizon says it continues to gain ground in restoring services to its wireline customers following the highly destructive June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho that caused power outages to about three million homes and business locations, for at least some period of time. 


Verizon's wireline repair load currently is running two to three times normal levels. Many customers' voice, Internet and TV services are coming back as commercial power is restored, and Verizon crews are spread across the region to replace poles, re-hang downed lines and repair customers' services. As of July 5, 2012, field forces are responding to 156 downed utility poles and 897 downed copper or fiber cables in the region.

Uptime	Uptime	Maximum Downtime per Year
Six nines	99.9999%	31.5 seconds
Five nines	99.999%	5 minutes 35 seconds
Four nines	99.99%	52 minutes 33 seconds
Three nines	99.9%	8 hours 46 minutes
Two nines	99.0%	87 hours 36 minutes
One nine	90.0%	36 days 12 hours

If Facts Don't Fit the Theory, The Theory Probably is Wrong

Facts sometimes don't fit theories that purport to explain those facts.When that happens, it is likely theory is wrong, in some way.That might appear to be the case for one theory about the strategies any industry has to embrace at any stage of its lifecycle.


Of course, some of you will look at the chart and sense a huge anomaly. The telecom industry is over 150 years old and long ago would have passed beyond the "scale" stage, for example.


One observation might be that the theory "fits" non-regulated industries, but does not fit very well for highly-regulated industries such as utilities. Others might note that airlines, which were deregulated in the 1980s, have had 30 years of mergers already. The theory suggests the entire process of moving through all four stages should take about 25 years. 


Note also that the theory claims to apply for any industry that is formed, or is deregulated. Aviation has been a distinct business for much longer than 50 years. 


Of course, it is always possible to force the facts to fit by artificially changing the definition of what an industry is. One might argue that "smart phones" represent a different industry that that of feature phones, or voice-only phones, or analog phones.


One might argue the older telecom business using step switches was different from the business using electromechanical switches or digital switches or now IP switches. 


But that's probably a case of straining to make the facts fit a theory, rather than acknowledging there is something wrong with the theory. 

Best Buy Will Use Mobile Payments Inside New Stores

The heart of a test store near Best Buy's headquarters here is a "Solution Central" help desk, rimmed with chairs and manned by the company's black-tied Geek Squad. It strongly resembles the Genius Bar at Apple's stores.


Best Buy says the new smaller stores are focused less on displaying every conceivable gadget and more on connecting customers with employees who can answer questions or help program equipment.


As part of that change, customers will be able to buy products from just about any Best Buy associate, on the spot, without going to a designated "check out" location, as is the Apple practice as well. That means mobile payments will be the "new normal" at the new Best Buy stores. 

RIM Earns $4 Billion Annually in Service Provider Fees for Email Services; Carriers Want to Pay Less

Research in Motion executives say the company is "not in a death spiral," but pressure is growing. RIM earns $4.09 billion in annual revenue from mobile service providers who provide RIM device email services to consumers.

But AT&T, for one, wants to pay RIM less for the privilege.The fees account for more than a third of revenue at RIM, according to Bloomberg.

“There’s definitely negotiations going on right now to reduce” the fees, said Sameet Kanade, a technology analyst at Northern Securities.

Samba Mobile Launches Free Mobile Broadband Service in U.K.

Samba Mobile is going to test the notion that an ad-supported mobile broadband service can work. Apple iPad users buy a Samba SIM now for £2.99 plus some "packaging" costs and get free mobile broadband service. Other notebook or desktop PCs will require a Samba dongle. 


Samba Mobile will become the latest service provider to try and prove that an ad-supported mobile service can work, though all prior attempts have failed. 


Tablet owners need only the Samba Micro-SIM, though the service is only available on Apple iPads at this stage. Laptop and desktop users must purchase a Samba USB-Dongle and the SIM for £25. 

Samba surfing is compatible with Firefox and Google Chrome but members are forbidden from accessing pornography sites as well as material that breaches copyright or is deemed offensive. 

The company also says it may install cookies to collect information about your “general internet usage”.

One Reason Mobile Service Providers Think M2M Has a Future

The vending machine industry has been fcing declining revenue since 2007, and industry supporters think new machines, using more digital technology, can reverse the trend.

Those changes will require broadband access, many would argue, creating a new type of customer for mobile service connections.