Friday, December 17, 2010

Online Video Will Probably Follow the Early Steamship Model

Over-the-top video clearly resonates with consumers. The big challenge is figuring out a revenue model for the content owners and providers that supplies the content people want, at prices they are willing to pay.

Some might predict that the interim business model will essentially be the same as was adopted by sailing ships as the "age of steam" arrived. At first, sailing ships were outfitted with boilers, and used both methods of propulsion. Only later did virtually all ships convert to steam-only propulsion.

That's probably going to happen with entertainment video as well.

Verizon's "Flex View for FiOS" is one example, as is "TV Everywhere." FiOS subscribers can rent or purchase on-demand content and watch it on up to five devices.

Netflix takes a somewhat similar approach, allowing consumers to rent either DVDs or stream content, all as part of a single subscription.

One suspects that is going to be a dominant pattern, for the time being. Content owners and networks will not want to move too quickly to essentially cannibalize one existing revenue stream while trying to grow the new one.

Not Enough Competition in U.S. Broadband Market?

Many people believe there is not enough competition in U.S. broadband access markets, which will come as news to the firms that actually compete in the market. But it's always easier to criticize somebody else's business than your own, one might observe. read more here

Sometimes the argument is that the alleged "lack of competition" means slower access speeds in the U.S. market, compared to some others. And the U.S. does feature typical speeds than some other nations do. With no exceptions, those nations are territorially small, have high population density and also tend to have had heavy financial sponsorship. The first observation means any advanced network can be built faster; the second and third observations mean any advanced network can be built more affordably.

The simple fact is that no large country, especially not any country with continental size, ranks in the very-top of broadband speeds. And there are simple reasons for that situation: Very-large networks, covering very large areas, with highly-varied population density, cost much more to build, and simply take longer.

Despite those background factors, the United States ranks about where you would expect, in line with the United Kingdom, France and Germany, for example, in most measures of broadband speed or coverage. The United States is not at the top, and likely never will be. The United States never ranked much more than 14th globally for fixed-line voice, either, and nobody seems to think voice service has been an impediment to economic growth, social equity or anything else.

The other issue is consumer demand. Broadband penetration in the United States in right in line with PC ownership. About a quarter of U.S. homes do not seem to own PCs, making broadband a rather useless product. Now that broadband adoption is up around the 70 percent level, most people who own PCs buy broadband.

The other angle is consumer demand for various speed tiers. There just isn't much demand for the fastest tiers of service, with most buyers purchasing services virtually all surveys indicate they are happy with. In other words, U.S. consumers choose services offering moderate speeds, and moderate prices, not the fastest speeds sold at the highest prices. Unless you think people are irrational, that sort of makes sense: people buy services that meet their needs, not "just because" faster speeds are available.

The FCC also notes that 66 percent of U.S. consumers already are buying access services running at bandwidths between 3 Mbps and 10 Mbps. Most service providers will tell you that this represents the bulk of current buying behavior. Will people buy services of higher capacity in the future? Most people think so. Are they likely to pay much more than they do now? Perhaps, but only if some other part of their current budgets can be shifted. There is little, if any, evidence that the percentage of household spending devoted to communications changes very much from year to year, running about 2.3 percent or so of budgets, and growing very slowly over time.

Broadband access is a means to an end. People might want the Apple iPad because it, in itself, is seen as having high value. Price has not been an impediment to robust adoption. But broadband access isn't that sort of product. There isn't the same "need" to buy the fastest service, as there might be to buy a Lexus.

One might argue that 3 Mbps is good enough for most people who pay with their own money. The Federal Communications Commission's latest report on the state of U.S. broadband access services took a look at locations by zip code, and estimated that 48 percent of U.S. households had, at the end of 2009, the ability to buy downstream service of at least 3 Mbps and upstream service of more than 200 kbps from at least three fixed-network providers. You might not say that is fast enough, or that three providers are not enough. Fair enough, but that's a value judgment.

read more here

Some 44 percent had the ability to buy such service from at least two fixed-network providers.

About 22 percent of househoulds could buy service of at least 6 Mbps/1.5 Mbps from at least two providers, while 57 percent could buy from at least one provider. Some 20 percent of U.S. households could buy service of at least 10 Mbps from at least two providers, while 58 percent could buy service from at least one provider. Some work needs to be done there, but upgrades are on-going, and those gaps will be closed.

If one adds in wireless providers, the FCC found that 58 percent of U.S. homes could buy wireless service of at least 3 Mbps/200 kbps from at least three providers, while 35 percent could buy from at least two providers and six percent had at least one provider.

But what makes a market workably competitive? That might not be a tough question in the abstract. Most people would probably agree that multiple competitors in any market are good for competition, and therefore good for consumer welfare. read more here

Matters are tougher when looking at capital-intensive industries. But how much facilities-based competition is actually possible in the wireline or mobile broadband industries?

Some would argue from experience and study that much more than two or three facilities-based competitors in a fixed-neetwork business, in a large market, is about as good as it gets. read more here



Salvation Army Android App

The Salvation Army's “The Daily Cup” app allows users to make a $10 donation from your Android device.

The Salvation Army used Didmo’s Magmito Application Creator to create the app, and distributes through Getjar. You can download the app here download it HERE now

Thedroidguy.com

Whether Content or Distribution is King Depends on Who You Are

Pundits and participants always have argued about whether "content" or "distribution" is king in the media ecosystem. The truth is, both are essential for a completed value chain and revenue model. But at any point in time, the question can only be answered concretely, based on who the actor is.

Large, powerful content creators and networks (networks are also distributors of content) tend to have more power, and one generally can say that in those cases--ESPN for example--it is the content packager that is "king." But ask any of the lightly-viewed small networks carried on cable, telco and satellite networks whether content or distribution is "king," and you are likely to get a much-more-nuanced answer. Small networks have to fight to get distribution, and might well say distribution is king.

To become a top 1,000 website you need at least 4.1 million visitors per month. To become a top 500 website you need at least 7.4 million visitors per month. See http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/07/05/what-it-takes-to-be-a-top-100-website-charts/ for more detail.

To become a top 100 website you need at least 22 million visitors per month. To become a top 50 website you need at least 41 million visitors per month.

For most websites, distribution would appear to be "king." In every case, if you are one of the small number of market leaders, content is king. For most organizations, distribution is going to appear to be the bigger business issue, and so distribution would remain king.

PayPal Black Friday: Mobile Payments Climb 300%

PayPal says "Black Friday" shopping results showed a 27 percent increase in total payment volume on Black Friday 2010, compared to the previous year.

PayPal saw an approximately 310 percent increase in mobile shopping on Black Friday. as well.

Dwolla Enters Payment Business on National Level

Mars Cafe, a Des Moines restaurant, is testing an in-store payment system powered by Dwolla. People can use their smartphones to pay Mrs Cafe right from the phone.
Next to the cash register is another smart phone that tells the clerk the bill has been paid electronically. The clerk provides a receipt and the customer's on his way.

Hulu Subscription Program Working Better Than Expected?

Hulu might be getting more takers for its subscription service than originally expected just a month ago.

Hulu CEO Jason Kilar said he expected the company's 2010 revenues to reach $260 million, up from a $240 million projection he made last month.

The eight-percent gain might be due to higher-than-expected demand for Hulu's new subscription service.

Old Debates Over "A La Carte" Might Not be Relevant in Future

An economist might say the typical video bundle works because it allows distributors to apply scale and scope economics.
 
The corollary is that most networks, which are advertising supported, want to be part of a "no choice" basic tier for business reasons of their own, namely the ability to better sell the advertising that underpins their business models.

According to some studies, relatively few networks actually make a $100 million or more in annual ad revenue, though.

When multichannel video distributors say a bundled approach creates economics that favor smaller, niche networks to thrive, they are right.

Deprived of carriage on a broad "enhanced basic" tier, perhaps 60 percent of networks might find themselves immediately imperiled, as going concerns.

An end to bundling would likely decimate most smaller, more-lightly-viewed networks. To the extent that content and program diversity is a desired end user benefit, "choice" in all likelihood would decline in a full a la carte environment, because most people would not buy most channels.

The possible advent of over-the-top TV viewing worries most in the current ecosystem for one compelling reason: "households view less than one quarter of the networks they are forced to buy in the bundle," the Consumers Union noted in an past analysis assuming a 50-channel offering. Even today, with hundreds of available channels, end user behavior does not seem to have changed much.

Most people watch a dozen or so channels on a regular basis.

Cable operators have argued that end-user costs might actually climb in an a la carte environment, for a number of reasons. Higher customer care costs, operating and marketing are likely, cable operators have argued. Part of the argument has been based on the need to supply new decoders to customers who did not previously need them. That is likely not much of an issue these days, as cable operators convert to largely-digital or all-digital services where customers already must be provided set-top boxes.

So perhaps some of the historic objections from a distributor point of view have eroded.

Separate studies by the Federal Communications Commission seem to have concluded that unbundling could save money, or wouldn't save money. See this study. One of the studies suggested “consumers that purchase at least nine networks would likely face an increase in their monthly bills" when buying a la carte.

Likewise, one of the studies suggested bill increases ranging from 14 percent to 30 percent under a la carte, while the other suggests a consumer purchasing 11 cable channels would face a change of bill ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a four percent increase, with a decrease in three out of four cases.

The point is that it is very hard to tell, conslusively, what might happen if providers shifted to a la carte viewing. With online delivery coming to the fore, it might not ultimately matter. A la carte might happen, but on the Internet.


1-Day Number Porting Mandatory on Jan. 31, 2011

Neustar's one-day number porting service for small-to-medium-sized telecom operators now is available. The Neustar "PortXpress" is a cloud-based service that enables operators to reduce the interval for number porting requests to just one business day, enabling them to meet the Federal Communications Commission’s new one-day number porting requirements by the January 31, 2011, deadline without system modification or new capital investments.

Comcast, Level 3 Dispute is Still About Money

Comcast says "Level 3 and Comcast engineering teams held several in-person discussions over the past 48 hours to discuss potential significant revisions to parts of our peering and direct connect architecture."

Comcast says the engineers "developed a potential new and different architectural approach" that Comcast wanted to test with Level 3 as soon as next month. The solution would require both to make a "relatively modest investment" that would allow both companies to better understand the traffic, routing, and economic considerations.

Comcast also offered to keep the economics of the existing newly executed agreement at 'no cost' until the companies learned the actual costs of the new approach during this trial.

"Level 3 chose to leave the meeting when we wouldn't agree to a 'zero cost' outcome," Comcast said.

The Tron Trailers are Gorgeous

My mom didn't like the original, and I don't think she'll like this sequel, either. But take a look at the visuals.

http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/disney/tronlegacy/

Are Web Apps the Future of Websites?

Web apps, it is argued, will displace browser-based apps. What seems a fairer statement is that apps will displace some browser-based content and app access.

If you have used both browser and mobile apps on a smartphone with a good touch-based browser, for example, you might not be so convinced that apps are better than web pages in all cases. You might have discovered that self-executing applications such as navigation programs, work best as traditional apps.

In other cases, if you want content richness, an app can provide a leaner experience than the main news page of a content source you are interacting with.

Test of T-Mobile HSPA and Sprint WiMAX Networks

One has to take mobile broadband speed tests with a bit of circumspection, as experienced throughput can vary enormously at any single location, at any point in time, when using only one device.

But in a recent test of the T-Mobile myTouch 4G and Samsung Epic 4G in Philadelphia and Trenton, N.J., the T-Mobile USA and Sprint WiMAX networks performed virtually the same in Philadelphia, with the Sprint network performing much better in Trenton, N.J.

The tests also showed differing speeds at various test points in each city, as well. You probably can argue the merits of each network (HSPA+ and WiMAX) based on these tests. They do suggest that HSPA+ can offer comparable throughput to WiMAX, at some times and places.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Social Contact Centers

Social software is starting to be deployed both in the contact center and the enterprise, says Blair Pleasant, COMMfusion owner.

Enterprises basically are starting to treat Twitter and Facebook posts just like another media channel for the contact center.

MetroPCS Eyes TerreStar Assets - WSJ.com

MetroPCS Communications is exploring a purchase of assets of mobile-communications business TerreStar Networks Inc. out of bankruptcy court, the Wall Street Journal reports.

TerreStar's most attractive assets are government licenses to use spectrum for mobile satellite applications. MetroPCS, the fifth-largest U.S. wireless carrier by subscribers, has been on the hunt for spectrum that will help it become a national operator.

It isn't clear whether the spectrum could be "re-purposed" for terrestrial fourth-generation networks, but LightSquared has been able to get such authority, as Terrestar has customers already making use of the satellite communications network.

MetroPCS also could use wholesale capacity from the proposed LightSquared network, as well. MetroPCS might also bid on spectrum Clearwire wants to sell. 

AT&T's "Satellite Augmented Mobile Service" uses the TerreStar network and dual-mode handsets that use both cellular and satellite networks.

The TerreStar "Genus" smartphone operates with terrestrial mobile as the primary default mode and satellite access capability as a secondary option for voice, data and messaging.

The access to the TerreStar satellite network enables wireless communications coverage in remote areas for government, energy, utility, transportation and maritime users, as well as backup satellite communications capabilities for public safety agencies, first responders and disaster recovery groups.

Netflix Encounters Complexity of Content Rights

Netflix said some of its deals with studios and other content providers prevent it from offering its streaming video service on TiVo DVRs distributed by Suddenlink Communications and other multichannel video programming distributors.

"Only those TiVo units sold in the retail channel are licensed to offer the instant streaming functionality from Netflix," Netflix spokesman Steve Swasey said.

TiVo apparently does not have the rights to offer Netflix on the boxes provided to Suddenlink because Netflix agreements with numerous content providers don't extend to devices distributed by cable companies and perhaps others.

It is likely similar issues will develop as more providers enter the streaming video business, and discover the complexity of rights agreements.

Twitter Illustrates Pareto Distribution

The "long tail" distribution is a standard Pareto distribution, popularly thought of as the "80/20" rule, where a disproportionate share of just about anything comes from a fraction of the causes.

Twitter followers in December 2010 show a clear Pareto distribution, as do people that Twitter users "follow."

The clear implication for things such as market share in any sphere of business will also have a Pareto distribution.

The implications for businesses and organizations that use Twitter as a social tool is that, in all likelihood, modest expectations should be watchword. It is highly unlikely most companies and organizations will ever appear at the head of the tail. Those spots normally are held by celebrities of one sort or another.

That isn't a reason not to use Twitter, just a reminder to be realistic about expectations.

Stuxnet an Instance of Cyber War?

Damage from the Stuxnet virus has apparently set back the Iranian nuclear program by as much as two years, according to a German security expert interviewed by the Jerusalem Post, and may be an instance of cyber warfare.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=199475

Stuxnet is a Windows-specific computer worm first discovered in July 2010 by a security firm based in Belarus, according to Wikipedia. While it is not the first time that hackers have targeted industrial systems, it is the first discovered worm that spies on and reprograms industrial systems.

It is said to have been specifically written to attack Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition systems used to control and monitor industrial processes.


Stuxnet includes the capability to reprogram Programmable Logic Controllers and hide its changes.The worm's probable target is said to have been high value infrastructures in Iran using Siemens control systems.

Will 2011 Be Decisive for Clearwire?

Among the wireless issues to watch in 2011 is what happens with Clearwire. Though in principle the company could go bankrupt if it does not raise some billions of additional funding later in 2011, a more-reasonable bet might be some "change of control" event.

Clearwire could, in principle, be bought, merge with another firm or perhaps even become a firm without a full national footprint. The last option would be complicated, but might involve Clearwire selling off assets in markets it has not built, or finished building, to another firm that would finish the construction. That would seem the least likely of all outcomes, though.

Mobile Charges Based on Time and Apps?

In principle, there is no reason broadband access plans cannot be created for a few favored applications, perhaps Facebook, for example. Jonathon Gordon, Allot Networks marketing director, sees no reason why mobile operators could not create such plans, much as they offer specific plans for text messaging, rather than full access to the mobile web.

Application-focused packages might allow users to buy more-modest mobile broadband plans specifically oriented to a few, or just one, lead application.

Will the 2026 World Cup Create Any Long-Term Economic Benefit for Host Nations?

World Cup long-term economic effects will be negligible, economists at Goldman Sachs say. That might seem unlikely, given the 2026 FIFA Wor...