24% of Landline Users Would Consider Abandoning Landline Service

As many as 24 percent of landline users would consider abandoning those lines in favor of mobile-only service, a survey by In-Stat sugggests. And some think that forecast is too conservative. Citigroup analyst Michael Rollins argues that by 2010, wireless-only households should rise to 27 percent, up from 13 percent last year and an estimated 17 percent this year.

In fact, the cord-cutting trend seen among younger U.S. wireless users might be hidden to a certain extent, as many teenagers may now be quite comfortable with the idea of using a mobile as the voice appliance, and simply haven't yet had a chance to make their preferences known in the broader market.

To be sure, the typical cord cutter is under 35 years old with a small household and a lower income than the traditional phone user, In-Stat says.

“The largest number of current cord cutters—those who do not have a landline, but rely solely on their mobile phone—are those one might expect: young, single, living alone, or sharing quarters such as a dormitory or rooming house,” says Jill Meyers, In-Stat analyst. “In many cases, these are people who are the least-likely candidates to have a landline phone.”

To nobody's surprise, current cord cutters, who have no landline service, use 22 percent more mobile minutes than the average user, and 40 percent more mobile minutes than those not interested in surrendering their landline.

As you also might suspect, potential cord cutters frequently are on family or group mobile rate plans. That is to say, they are teenagers or college-age adults whose bills are paid by other family members. They also are users who simply are accustomed to communicating using a mobile device rather than a "home phone."

Potential cord cutters also are heavy users, since nearly all their calling and texting is concentrated on a personal mobile device. Their spending averages $111.41 a month. Most estimates peg cord cutters at about five to eight percent of users. Analysts at the Yankee Group think the trend will keep growing, and reach 15 percent in several years.

As a parent with three young adults on a such a plan, I can attest that per-capita spending is much higher than for the parents also on shared plans. Way higher, and in line with the In-Stat findings.

More SOA-Based Voice, Text from BlueNote Networks

BlueNote Networks has launched a pair of new application program interfaces for its SessionSuite communications platform. The new APIs for BlueNote's SessionSuite SOA Edition, which allows developers to embed voice within SOA applications running on IP networks, make it possible to add outbound notification and interactive response to business applications.

For example, the ON-SF allows users to add account activity notification or stock alerts, prescription renewal notifications, flight delay or cancellation notifications within the framework of existing business applications.

The ON-SF goes beyond voice notifications to reach intended message recipients through multiple channels. It enables not only voice notifications, but e-mail and text message notifications as well.

The announcement provides more evidence that communications are being embedded within the context of Web and enterprise applications.

Good Reason to Buy a Wi-Fi-Equipped Smart Phone

On Dec. 11, JetBlue Airways Corp. will begin a trial of free in-flight e-mail and messaging using in-cabin Wi-Fi. If passengers respond positively, the airline said it could install the service across its entire fleet, according to Citigroup analyst Jim Suva.

The in-flight Wi-Fi service will be welcomed by many notebook PC users and owners of Wi-Fi-equipped BlackBerrys or iPhones, since some people travel with a BlackBerry, iPhone or some other smart phone and leave their notebooks at home. That's not me, but other people do it. The relevant BlackBerry devices include the 8210, 8820 and 8320 Curve. You are out of luck if you have service from at&t, though, as at&t blocks Wi-Fi usage on its Curve. T-Mobile supports Wi-Fi on the Curve.

Of course, there apparently is just one single aircraft involved in the JetBlue test. But if it proves popular, and one suspects it will, we can hope other carriers eventually will move to equip their cabins for Wi-Fi.

Of course, the danger is that people will start using VoIP over Wi-Fi, even if cabins aren't equipped for mobile phone use, an idea that many of us absolutely detest. As annoying as mobile phone etiquette now is, it will be unbearable when you can't escape the audio pollution created by your seat mates.

International Long Distance: Merger Wave Coming

Look for a wave of mergers and outsourcing in the international long distance business in 2008. The issue is that voice traffic growth is slowing sharply after decades of rapid growth. That means more volume is needed to keep a business cash flow positive or profitable. Not every global carrier will be able to attain that level of scale, so executives are going to have to consider buying wholesale capacity and abandoning operation of their own networks.

That, of course, is a business opportunity for wholesalers with the ability to handle a large amount of additional traffic.

International voice traffic grew approximately 15 percent annually, from less than 18 billion minutes in 1986 to just under 300 billion in 2006. But international calls grew only 10 percent in 2006, and signs point to continued sluggish growth in 2007.

Skype and other computer-based voice services are a key reason for the slowdown. "Skype only accounts for a small share of international calls, but the volume was enough to cut global growth in half," says TeleGeography analyst Stephan Beckert.

France Telecom: Flat Organic Cash Flow for '08

In confirming its 2007 organic cash flow target of 7.5 billion euros and setting the same level for 2008, France Telecom executives also point out how hard it is for large incumbent service providers to achieve organic growth inside their present service territories, without expanding out of region.

France Telecom says it will achieve organic cash flow at this level as long as it also hits the same operating margin and maintains investment expenditure at about 13 percent of revenues and maintains the same 2007 dividend distribution rate at between 40 and 45 percent of organic cash flow.

Growth will occur "beyond 2008 and over the medium term," France Telecom executives say.

But growth might not be a problem only the largest incumbents have. SureWest Communications has acquired an out-of-market broadband provider, Everest Broadband, in Kansas City, marking SureWest's first-ever move outside its metro market, aside from the competitive local exchange carrier operations SureWest conducts in the broader Sacramento market, where it competes with at&t.
Growth, despite a management team's best efforts, seems now to be a matter of expanding out of territory. The corollary might be that internal, organic growth is stalled. Presumably, internal new services initiatives will have time to catch on while most companies look to acquisitions to fuel near-term growth.

Text Messaging Growing 37% a Month

U.S. text messaging (SMS) traffic volumes have increased at least 37 percent a month since 2003, according to CTIA researchers. Usage also is significant across many age categories as well. About 19 percent of users are 18 to 24; 24 percent are between 25 and 34; 22 percent are between 35 and 54 and 19 percent are between 45 and 54.

As of December 2006, over 18.5 billion text messages are sent every month and that number has grown by 250 percent each year for the last two years.

Verizon Wireless anticipates the number of text messages sent by their users on their network to grow nearly five times from 400 million per month in July 2005 to over two billion per month next year.

Apple to Gain Share

Apple's Macintosh computers are poised to make sizable market share gains in the coming months, according to ChangeWave Research.

ChangeWave says it sees continuing momentum for Apple's Macs among both consumer and business customers.

ChangeWave recently conducted two surveys that gauged PC-buying plans over the next 90 days, a period running from the holiday shopping season into first-quarter 2008. It polled members, who tend to be more tech-savvy and have higher disposable incomes than the general public.

The latest poll found that 29 percent of likely notebook and desktop PC buyers in the next 90 days are planning to get a Mac. That's higher than consumer purchase intent for HP laptops (21 percent), HP desktops (24 percent) and Dell laptops (28 percent).

Two years ago, 16 percent of likely notebook PC buyers and 11 percent of desktop PC buyers planned to buy Macs. Demand for Macs has risen steadily ever since.

More consumers are buying Macs because they're turned off by PCs using Microsoft's Windows operating system, Changewave analysts say.

A separate ChangeWave poll of corporate PC buyers found increasing demand for Apple as well. For companies planning to buy computers next quarter, seven percent of laptop buyers and six percent of desktop buyers plan to get Macs. That's up from four percent of laptop buyers and three percent of desktop buyers two years ago.