Wireless Overtakes Wireline This Summer

Mobile voice volume will overtake fixed in Western Europe by mid-year, researchers at Analysys now predict. The proportion of call minutes made from mobiles has increased by 1.4 percentage points each quarter over the last year.

In the United Kingdom, where patterns of consumption are close to the European average, mobile voice usage should overtake fixed voice in the second quarter of 2008.

In France, mobile voice usage has already surpassed that of fixed voice, and keeps growing despite the widespread availability of practically free voice over broadband.

On the other hand, mobile voice is not expected to overtake fixed voice in the Italian market until the first quarter of 2009. The German market will not experience this phenomenon for about two years.

Portugal, having the lowest voice consumption in Western Europe, was the first country in which mobile overtook fixed, while Sweden, which has one of the highest, will be among the last to change, Analysys researchers say.

For mobile providers, price is the trick. Once wireless calling costs are low enough, users seem well able to act on the relative value-price perceptions wired voice and wireless represent. In many cases, those users show a strong preference for mobility.

Cell Phone Recycling: 10 to 34%

During the fourth quarter of 2007, U.S. consumers buying new mobile handsets recycled their old phones at double the rate that they did in the third quarter. Still, that's just 9.4 percent of devices, says iSuppli Corp.

But recycling behavior might be higher than that, if all sources of reuse are considered, and if respondents are being truthful. Considering phones given to friends or family members, donated to a charity or returned to a phone retailer, about 39 percent of phones are recycled or reused.

The easiest way to recycle a phone is simply to take it to your provider's retail store. In most cases they'll supply you with a postage-paid mailing envelope, which you then drop in a postal box. Some Best Buy outlets have permanent recycling bins for PC batteries, ink cartridges and mobile devices (phones or personal digital assistants).

About 36.8 percent of respondents polled by iSuppli simply stick the old phones in a closet or drawer. That presumably means the devices later are tossed into the trash, which is where they shouldn't be.

About 15.5 percent of U.S. consumers gave away their old mobile handsets to a family member or friend. Another 8.5 percent of consumers donated their handsets to charities.

About 5.7 percent said they returned their old phones to the retailers where they originally bought them. Some 3.1 percent sold their old phones.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates Americans discard 125 million phones each year, creating 65,000 tons of waste.

So Maybe Verizon is Bidding Against Itself

After round 40 of the Federal Communications Commission's auction of 700 MHz airwaves, Verizon might be bidding against itself, in a sense. Observers say it is possible for Verizon to bid directly on each of the eight regional allocations that make up the national C block. And if any contestant has the highest bid in a region, it wins the spectrum even if some other entity has the highest overall bid for the entire C block.

In this scenario Verizon would simply have to ensure that its regional bids were high enough to top the amount any other player submitted for the entire national spectrum. Clever.

FCC Auction: Who's Bidding on C Block?

At the end of round 39 of the Federal Communications Commission's auction of the national C block of 700 MHz spectrum, it appears at least two entities continue to bid.

The top bid now is a bit over $4.83 billion, up from the prior high of $4.7 billion at the end of round 38. Some of us think Google has halted its bidding, and most of us think Verizon Communications intends to win the C block. So if all that is true, at least one other company continues to bid against Verizon. Curious.

It's hard to picture at&t bidding for C block spectrum, as observers have predicted it would focus on filling in holes in its 700 MHz spectrum by bidding on local chunks of the B block.

AOL to Cleave Access from Ads

So it looks as though AOL will be split, separating out the Internet access business from the emerging advertising business. The thinking is that it will be easier to do something with each of the assets that isn't so easy right now. Presumably a buyer such as Google might want to pick up AOL's portal for the ad business.

But what can be done with the access assets? Even though AOL lost 3.8 million subscribers in 2007, it still has something on the order of 9.3 million U.S. subscribers.

EarthLink has something of a similar problem. It has a declining customer base but still has 4.2 million access customers.

The issue is what sort of buyer might exist for the Internet access customers AOL and EarthLink now are serving. Most of them are dial-up customers and are likely prospects for broadband upgrades. But the customer base is scattered all over the U.S. market.

So any potential acquirer would want a ubiquitous broadband access footprint (cable modem, wireless or Digital Subscriber Line). Only the leading wireless providers have any real shot at national coverage. Verizon, at&t or Comcast would have immediate coverage issues. Smaller ISPs might want to buy, but can't raise the money.

Does anybody have a rational business plan for rolling up the EarthLink and AOL access bases? Not one we've heard so far, even assuming all the other assets are cleanly separated.

at&t to Add 80 Cities to 3G Network

at&t Wireless will extend its third-generation (3G) wireless broadband network to more than 80 additional cities in the United States this year. About 270 communities already have 3G service available.

Most major metro areas already are covered, but you'd be surprised at the number of suburban communities even around the major markets that only have the slower EDGE data network. That's one reason, aside from battery life, that the Apple iPhone initially was available only in an EDGE network version.

By the end of the year, nearly 350 leading U.S. markets will be served by the 3G network, including all of the top 100 U.S. cities. The 3G initiative requires the building of more than 1,500 additional cell sites.

The at&t 3G network now delivers typical downlink speeds ranging between 600 and 1,400 kilobits per second, as well as uplink speeds ranging from 500 and 800 kilobits per second, though the network is not yet completely equipped for the higher upstream capacity at all sites.

People often underestimate how long it takes for a national network to be created, even if it is a wireless network. Back in the regulated days of telecom, for example, a sizable telecom company would expect to upgrade or replace only about 10 percent of total plant in any single year.

So access plant changed slowest, though switch replacements could occur more quickly. And it isn't just "physical" networks that have to be built. A large carrier might operate 50 to 100 "logical" networks, as each separate service often required its own hardware, software, provisioning and billing systems.

Likewise, consider that Verizon Wireless has invested $300 million in 2007 to enhance its networks in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia alone, largely related to broadband upgrades, spending $6.5 billion investment nationwide.

"Reliable wireless networks are not built overnight," says Tami Erwin, Verizon Wireless regional president.

From an at&t Wireless perspective, it will take a year to light 80 communities, using 1,500 towers, to create a 3G network in those areas. And there will be more work next year.

Verizon, at&t Take Different Approaches to Bandwidth Caps

For an industry that in decades past has tended to move in lockstep, it is refreshing to see an ever-increasing divergence in strategies and marketing positions. Consider the matter of bandwidth caps and content filtering.

at&t has decided to filter non-authorized content on its broadband access networks. The move is an attempt to reduce the peer-to-peer bandwidth load on its networks.

Verizon, on the other hand, doesn't want to do so and says it will not. Many policy advocates will cheer that stance.

One might credit Verizon's decision to move to a fiber-to-home network for that laudable move. Simply, Verizon has a lot more headroom than at&t will to support today's heavy users, and ultimately, heavier use by nearly all users as more video moves to Internet delivery.

Beyond the policy stance differences, and the customer goodwill Verizon will garner, the notable difference stems from fundamental decisions each carrier has made. Verizon made a risky bet in the face of nearly-universal investor opposition. at&t took a less-risky path that was rewarded by investors.

But each of those decisions now has repercussions in other areas where technology now conditions the marketing decisions each company can make. I've said it before and will say it again: Verizon did the right thing sticking to its FiOS program, in the face of intense financial community pressure.

In the years to come, that technology and financial decision is going to give Verizon many options other contestants may not have.