Advertising Hits Tipping Point; Mobile Video Hasn't

It is probably worth noting, with significant attention focused on substitution of mobile and Internet video for traditional packaged multi-channel video, that there's lots of activity, money and attention focused on substitution of other services such as advertising.

And advertising already is at an inflection point: video isn't there yet. That's important for anybody who thinks they may have a chance to build a business based on changes in user behavior.

And inflection points are crucial. Move too early and you die. Move too late and you miss the opportunity.

The analogy: assume firms have a chance to establish themselves when water turns to ice or to steam. Since most major changes in established markets do not occur overnight, the analogy is a gradually rising or falling temperature. For a long time, it appears as though not much is happening.

But then the quantum change occurs. Almost instantly, water changes to gas or forms ice.

That's pretty much what happened to the U.S. newspaper business in early 2009: an accumulation of decades worth of changes produced a quantum change. Video is not there yet. Advertising is, in at least one segment of the business.

Since the tipping point has been reached, we should expect change at a faster rate than has been happening.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/ctialive/story/ctia-scorecard-mobile-content/2009-04-06

Skype Founders Want to Buy it Back

Skype's founders are said to be raising money to buy Skype back from eBay. They sold it for $3.1 billion and eBay appears to want $1.7 billion. Aside from the obvious deal economics, Skype's founders have gone almost nowhere with their follow-on video business.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/11/technology/companies/11skype.html?_r=4&partner=rss&emc=rss

EU Likely to Force Mobile Providers to Permit Skype Use

The European Union (EU) reportedly is preparing to force mobile providers to allow use of VoIP services including Skype over their networks, a move that would not be unexpected. EU Telecoms Commissioner Viviane Reding recently reemphasized her opposition to application blocking of this sort, and that tends to signal action by the EU.

Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile unit currently blocks Skype access from Apple iPhones, for example, though access is possible using Wi-Fi, roughly the same policy AT&T uses.

It is understandable that mobile providers are not anxious to put themselves out of business. But VoIP blocking just isn't the right thing to do.

http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/content-view-42003-118.html

DirecTV Sees No Signs of Consumer Retrenchment

Despite the widespread conventional wisdom that consumers "must be" dropping a wide variety of communications and entertainment services, the most-recent DirecTV Group Inc. financial results do not support the thesis. DirecTV added 301,000 net subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2008, the most net subs it has added in more than three years.

DirecTV also had what it called its "best year ever," as the company added 861,000 net new customers in 2008. Net subscriber additions of 301,000 in the fourth quarter were nearly 10 percent higher than last year's fourth quarter.

We'll have to see what the company reports for the first quarter of 2009.

Investment Incentives Key for National Broadband Plan, McDowell Says

As part of the recently passed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 ("stimulus package"), the Federal Communications Commission must create a national broadband plan.

Commissioner Robert McDowell says “it is essential that our plan give current and prospective broadband network and service providers the proper incentives to deploy new technologies."

"We must also provide entrepreneurs with the flexibility to make full use of all available spectrum, including the television white spaces, to backhaul broadband traffic," McDowell says. "In order to attract investors to fund the build-out of new networks, we must not engage in rulemakings that produce whimsical regulatory arbitrage."

"Rather, we must allow market players to succeed or fail on their own merits and not due to the government picking winners and losers," McDowell says. "In short, our rules must allow network operators to have a reasonable opportunity to pay back their investors. That’s the only way to improve existing networks and build new ones.”

Broadband is Partly an Availability Problem; Partly a Demand Problem

"Predominantly, even in contexts with reliable supply of broadband, it is consumer demand for broadband that is the tallest barrier to adoption and represents America’s competitive vulnerability," says Connected Nation.

It might be worth keeping that in mind as plans for the broadband stimulus program operated by the National Telecommunications & Administration and Agriculture Department's "broadband stimulus" rules are finalized.

There clearly is a physical access problem in rural areas (at least in terms of wired access: though some locations may not have clear line of sight, multiple providers of satellite access are available, and it is possible to supply speeds up to perhaps 5 Mbps using satellite), but broadband availability is not the same problem as lack of adoption. In fact, people have lots of reasons not to buy services they already have access to.

The largest barrier to broadband adoption is a lack of awareness about broadband’s benefits, Connected Nation says. Nearly one-half (44 percent) of those with no home broadband connection say “I don’t need broadband.”

Likewise, the top barrier to computer ownership is also a perceived lack of need. Nearly two-thirds

(62 percent) of those who do not own a computer say “I don’t need a computer,” Connected Nation says.

In other cases, perceived cost is an issue. Nearly one fourth (24 percent) of those who do not own a computer cite the up-front cost as a barrier. Similarly, nearly one-fourth of those without a home broadband connection say broadband is too expensive.

Four out of ten parents with children who are without a home computer see no need for having a computer in the home. And nearly one-third (30 percent) of parents with children who do not have a home broadband connection see no need for a broadband connection.

More than one half (56 percent) of people with disabilities who do not own a computer see no need for having a computer in the home. Four out of ten people with disabilities who do not have a home broadband connection see no need for a broadband connection, Connected Nation says.

Close to one half (42 percent) of rural residents without a home broadband connection say it is because they do not need broadband. This compares with 19 percent of these rural residents who say they do not subscribe because broadband service is not available in their area.

Additionally, 22 percent of these rural residents say broadband is too expensive.

http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0812BROADBANDCHALLENGE.PDF

Internet Video Complementary to Cable, Satellite and Telco Video, Study Indicates

Fears that the recession will encourage more and more people to drop cable or satellite TV service and rely on free online video services appear to be exaggerated, Pike & Fischer researchers say. Some might say grossly exaggerated. In a recent survey, less than half of one percent of respondents indicated they would cancel a multi-channel video subscription.

That said, about 15 percent of respondents said they intend to downgrade to a lower-priced video subscription this year, through such means as giving up premium channels. Both the findings are consistent with consumer behavior in past economic recessions.

Typically, consumers hang on to their subscriptions and do not disconnect. They do however tend to downgrade premium services or postpone upgrades.

About eight percent of respondents said they plan to upgrade their service to receive expanded numbers of channels or advanced services such as high-definition TV.

Although there are no signs yet that the Web is on its way to replacing traditional TV, a substantial number of respondents said they are turning to the Web to watch video, Pike & Fischer says. About 32 percent of respondents to the survey said they regularly watch video from Web sites such as Hulu, YouTube and iTunes.

"The results indicate that consumers appear to be willing to continue paying for cable or satellite TV, despite the fact that they can get a vast amount of shows for free or very low cost on services like Hulu and Veoh," says Scott Sleek, Pike & Fischer director. "But they don't appear to be willing to spend any extra money for premium channels or on-demand movies. And they're increasingly willing to go to the Internet to watch their favorite shows."