Do Service Providers Earn Back Their Cost of Capital?

To the extent that all U.S. broadband networks rely on private capital to invest in new broadband facilities, the question of financial return for such investments is fundamental. After all, telcos, cable companies, satellite and wireless providers go to private markets for the funding to build their broadband networks, and those investors have lots of choices.

If the financial return, and the risk, of broadband facilities investment do not roughly match or exceed what is available from alternative investments, those investments will not be made, and it won't matter much how much people scream about what they can't get.

In that regard, it is fair to note that many investors no longer consider telecom an especially desirable investment. It is rare these days to find a venture capitalist willing to consider backing a new telecom equipment supplier, for example. To the extent that interest remains, it is centered on mobile and mobile applications.

And there are reasons for that investor caution. Any perusal of industry statistics or quarterly or annual financial reports, at least in developed markets, will show stress around the traditional revenue sources most communications or video suppliers rely on. 

Growth rates are down, subscriber trends are negative in many cases, profit margins are lower than has been the case historically, and there is more competition and a shift of value elsewhere in the Internet, broadband and wireless ecosystems. 

In fact, Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett argues that, over the last decade, the returns on invested capital in communications networks in U.S. markets have been anemic, at best. He argues that economic value creation has been, in aggregate, barely positive.

Wireline networks have the weakest returns on invested capital with a 1.5 percent gain over the last decade. Wireless networks had a meager return of 0.3 percent. Cable garnered a 2.5 percent return. Satellite networks had the best return on invested capital at 5.5 percent. Others, including AT&T, Comcast, Dish,Sprint and Verizon, have negative returns, Moffett argues.

You might argue that though low, those are positive numbers. True enough. But there are borrowing costs, and in many cases the cost of "good will" associated with acquisitions. Add those in and returns can go negative pretty quickly.

It probably goes without saying that potential end user shifts in the direction of over the top video entertainment do represent a threat to subscription video revenues now earned by telcos, cable and satellite companies.

A new study by Edelman suggests U.S. consumers are are disenchanted with their entertainment choices. Only about 17 percent of respondents think entertainment sources today provide “very good” or “excellent value.” That should send up a warning flag about the latent potential demand for different video and other entertainment options. 

Declining entertainment value obviously creates a gap that competing providers might be able to exploit. Unlike many other businesses, though, the video entertainment business is unusually controlled by content creators and distributors, rather than distributors. DirecTV, for example, recently had unusual success with its “Sunday Ticket” service delivering National Football League games, says Michael White, DirecTV Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President.

Those sorts of issues mean there is potential for alternative distribution methods, so long as content providers are willing to cooperate. For fixed-line access providers, there are other issues, beyond a threat to existing video service revenues, though. Some would argue that fixed networks already have trouble earning a return on invested capital that justifies deploying that capital.

Whether or not a provider of goods and services can remain in business is not a consumer's problem, of course. But the apparent difficulty of making money in the fixed-line service provider business is a key concern for service providers, naturally. 

Beyond that, to the extent fixed access networks are seen as a key underpinning of economic growth, and a "national resource," there are key public policy issues. Specifically, if robust and high-speed broadband access is a "public good," inability to earn a return on invested capital is a broader problem. 

Is "4G Plus DirecTV" a Viable Alternative to FiOS?

Verizon Wireless seems to be cooking up an out of market “video plus broadband” plan, working with DirecTV. During its recent quarterly earnings report, Fran Shammo, Verizon Communications EVP said that the company was working on such an effort.

“You're going to see that come in the fourth quarter with the what we now call the Cantenna, which is not a commercial name obviously, but it's the antenna that we actually trialed with DIRECTV, which was extremely successful,” said Shammo.

Some will legitimately wonder whether that approach might even wind up being used in some Verizon markets where FiOS has not already started to be deployed. LTE plus DirecTV

There are some significant Verizon markets including cities like Boston, Buffalo, N.Y, Baltimore and Alexandria, Va. where FiOS construction has not started.

The obvious new question is the rational approach Verizon should take to upgrading its fixed-line network. There isn’t much doubt about optical access media being more resistant to some weather-related impairments than copper networks, nor is there much doubt that new optical facilities cost less to maintain than older copper networks.

But the business question is how much incremental investment ought to be made in the fixed network,  if video and broadband services can be provided using the wireless network. One might rationally argue that the cost of maintaining the fourth generation wireless network is lower than the cost of maintaining the FiOS network.

Obviously, if that is true then the avoided capital investment in new optical facilities is significant as well. That isn’t to argue that fixed and wireless networks are in any way equivalent in terms of absolute bandwidth. But there is a financial question.

If the expected revenue and operating cost advantage of FiOS, compared to 4G, does not provide the optimal financial return, then a wireless solution might be the most-rational way to invest new capital.

The problem is that voice is a negligible contributor to incremental revenue on a FiOS network, while video, though an important contributor of revenue, is not such a great contributor to profits. That leaves broadband, and revenue upside is tough.

That is not to say fiber to home facilities are unimportant, merely to say that they might not be the best use of capital for a provider that also is investing heavily in mobile broadband.

In fact, there is an interesting bit of data in the latest report from Akamai on global Internet usage. The global average fixed-line connection speed was 2.6 Mbps, and the global average peak connection speed was 11.4 Mbps.

Looking at mobile broadband connections, average connection speeds on known mobile providers ranged from 5.3 Mbps down to 209 kbps, while “average” peak connection speeds ranged from 23.4 Mbps down to 1.2 Mbps.

The interesting observation is that wireless broadband has the higher peak speeds, about double that of fixed line connections, with a variable “average” speed that in some cases also is twice as high as fixed-line connections, though such sessions are highly variable. When mobile broadband is slow, it is an order of magnitude slower than fixed line connections. Global broadband speeds

Consumer Satisfaction With Video, Wireless Up, Sprint Gains Most

Customer satisfaction with cable and satellite TV rises to its highest level in 10 years, up five percent, with nearly all companies registering improvements, according to the American Customer Satisfaction Index.

Sprint Nextel seems to have made the largest gains over the last two years, jumping by double digits for each of the past two years. That's important as Sprint Nextel's customer service was widely seen as the cause of its high churn over the past several years. The improvement in customer satisfaction is mirrored by steadily better churn performance over the last couple of years.

Both Verizon’s FiOS and AT&T’s U-verse lead the way with scores of 73 and 72, respectively. Satellite TV still leads over traditional cable, with Dish Network soaring 11 percent to 71 to overtake rival DirecTV for the first time since 2005.

DirecTV fell four percent to 68 as aggressive pricing promotions by DISH, coupled with a price increase by DirecTV, has the two satellite TV providers moving in opposite directions.

All four of the largest cable providers show some improvement. Charter Communications makes the biggest leap, gaining 18 percent to 60. The company is now statistically tied with Comcast and Time Warner Cable, both up three percent to 61.  Cox Communications gained two percent to 67 to lead all traditional cable companies for a seventh straight year.

“Having enjoyed near-monopoly status in most areas for many years, cable companies had little incentive to provide quality services at a good price,” says Claes Fornell, founder of the ACSI.  “Now that satellite and fiber-optic TV providers have created a competitive challenge to cable, the cable companies have started to step up customer service and realize some gains in customer satisfaction, but they still remain far behind both satellite and fiber-optics.”  

Traditional local and long distance service improved four percent to 75, the highest level in more than a decade.  AT&T is on top after a six-percent surge to 75, followed closely by Cox Communications, unchanged at 74, and Verizon, up three percent to 73. CenturyLink and Comcast round out the bottom of the industry, with CenturyLink gaining three percent to 70 and Comcast rising two percent to 68.

Customer satisfaction with wireless telephone service set a new all-time high for the second consecutive year, rising four percent to 72.  T-Mobile gained three percent to 73, tying for the lead with Verizon Wireless, which declined one percent.

AT&T Mobility improved three percent to 69. Two years after the iPhone was introduced as an exclusive product, AT&T seems to have made strides to relieve some of the strains on its network caused by the rapid influx of iPhone customers.

Sprint Nextel had the largest improvement, gaining 11 percent to 70 a year after a similarly large 13 percent jump, pushing the wireless carrier from well below to very close to the industry average.

Perhaps the most-intriguing bit of commentary provided by ACSI was the brief note that "with wireless looking to be the future of telephone service, providers are ramping up efforts to provide new services, simplified usage plans, and better pricing." Note the language: "wrieless looking to be the future of telephone service."

Are Broadband, Voice, TV and Mobile Services Really Commodities?

Both industry executives and consumers might sometimes be accused of viewing mobile, voice, broadband and multi-channel TV services as "commodities." Whether that is true, and to what extent, is, and ought to be, a matter of debate, not certitude.

Consider Verizon and DirecTV, for example. You might say that both provide services that other key competitors also provide, and that the features and prices are, at some level, comparable and even similar.
But their offerings are not identical with the offerings of their key competitors, and that appears to be by design, not accident.

DirecTV is the biggest satellite pay-TV provider in the United States and competes with other satellite and cable providers.  But that doesn't mean it competes for an identical set of customers, even though there is much overlap.

The company is not exceptionally distinct in aiming to grow revenues in the future by focusing on average revenue per user growth more than growth in the number of subscribers. Indeed, virtually every provider expects to do that.

Nor is DirecTV distinct in that regard. In a competitive, multi-product market, virtually every provider seeks to get more revenue by selling more things to existing customers, not simply adding new customers.
But DirecTV and Verizon seem to be focusing on higher-spending customers, compared to the other competitors in each of their markets.

DirecTV focuses on "higher-quality" subscribers who tend to pay extra for its advanced services like high-definition and digital video recorder  service. In the fourth quarter of 2009, about 70 percent of new DirecTV subscribers signed up for HD and DVR services, for example.  Overall HD-DVR penetration amongst DirecTV’s subscriber base amounting to about 60 percent.

Some observers expect DirecTV’s HD-DVR penetration to increase to 80 percent by about 2016.
DirecTV plans to offer new services include mulit-room viewing and new broadband applications as well. DirecTV Cinema is a movie service that will allow subscribers to watch certain films through DirecTV as soon as they are released on DVDs.

Verizon likewise tends to focus on higher-spending customers as well.

The point is that even as broadband, mobile, voice and multi-channel TV services are highly competitive, they are not, in the strict sense, "commodities." It might not matter whether a sugar product was made from beets or sugar cane. It can, and often does matter, that a firm's customer service, features, devices, packaging or pricing are distinct.

DirecTV Sees No Signs of Consumer Retrenchment

Despite the widespread conventional wisdom that consumers "must be" dropping a wide variety of communications and entertainment services, the most-recent DirecTV Group Inc. financial results do not support the thesis. DirecTV added 301,000 net subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2008, the most net subs it has added in more than three years.

DirecTV also had what it called its "best year ever," as the company added 861,000 net new customers in 2008. Net subscriber additions of 301,000 in the fourth quarter were nearly 10 percent higher than last year's fourth quarter.

We'll have to see what the company reports for the first quarter of 2009.

DirecTV Awaits Satellite Launch

Satellite launches always are dangerous things. But, should the DirecTV 11 broadcast satellite be launched successfully on March 12, DirecTV will be able to provide 150 national high-definition channels and will be capable of supporting spot beams carrying 1,500 local high-definition channels, typically useful for beaming retransmitted local broadcast station signals back into the local markets.

In February 2007 a Zenit-3SL rocket on the Sea Launch platform, the same one DirecTV is using, exploded on the platform. It happens from time to time.

The odds of a Sea Launch satellite launch will fail are about one in 8.5. Of roughly 25 attempts to date, the company has experienced a failure rate of 12 percent. That's no particular slam on Sea Launch. Launch failures have been part of the industry's reality since the beginning.

Lots of SMEs Now Buy Video

Entertainment video of the sort delivered by cable, satellite or telephone companies often is thought of as a consumer application. But there's new evidence that lots of small and mid-sized businesses and organizations buy video services. To be sure, bars have long been a key business customer for video services.

What is striking is the degree to which lots of businesses now want to have video services available at the workplace. Whether for employee benefit or keeping up with the news (branch offices of financial services firms, for example), SMEs now appear to be far more willing than formerly to buy entertainment video services.

EchoStar, Dish Now Separated

EchoStar has completed the spin-off of its set-top box business into a new a company called EchoStar Holding Corp. The parent company, which now consists primarily of its satellite TV broadcasting business, will change its name to DISH Network Corp., and keep DISH as it stock symbol.

The transaction makes Dish a pure-play video entertainment provider, and arguably a cleaner asset for an acquirer or merger partner. There has been much speculation about an at&t purchase, but that seems unlikely given at&t's recent decisions about its stock buybacks, acceleration of its U-verse deployment and dividend increases.

The earlier proposed merger of Dish with DirecTV didn't pass regulatory muster, in part because the market was defined as "satellite TV" rather than multichannel video entertainment. At some point, as telcos gain more video market share, that argument might not be so compelling, and Dish and DirecTV might be allowed to merge.

Given that the consumer market increasingly is dominated by triple play, dual play and quadruple play providers, and where each of the services markets increasingly are saturated, regulators might take a fresh look at allowing the two satellite providers to merge.

The Dish Networks separation from the the EchoStar set-top manufacturing operations will help.

Qwest Really Isn't Interested in IPTV

Qwest Communications International Inc. no longer will pursue cable franchise agreements with Colorado cities or build community-wide TV service in areas where it's recently won franchise approval. That's more confirmation of Qwest's strategic direction in video, which is to rely on its partner DirecTV for linear TV services.

Though Qwest plans to upgrade its broadband capacity in 10 major markets and 10 smallers ones in the company's 14-state service area, that is solely for the purpose of broadband-based services other than entertainment video.

Qwest still supports the idea of statewide television franchises. But it won't seek such a franchise.

Digital TV Transition: Not Y2K

In February 2009, all over-the-air analog TV broadcasting will be shut off. Some observers are concerned that consumers aren't acutely aware of the coming changes, resulting in massive disruption of the TV experience on the day of the analog broadcasting shut off.

Maybe not. The only potentially-affected customers are those who rely solely on over-the-air signal reception. Customers of cable, satellite or telco TV services won't have to do anything. To be sure, cable, satellite or telco TV providers will have to supply a new digital decoder if one is not already in place. But the point is that the providers will take care of their own customers, and that's 85 percent to 90 percent of all TV viewers.

Of those customers who have over-the-air connections, those who have bought TVs with digital tuners will not notice anything other than universally-better pictures. So the real issue lies with a single-digits number of viewers who have analog-only tuners.

By the time the transition nears, every mass market electronics retailer will have taken steps to push the sale of digital decoders. So this will not be anything like a feared "Y2K" event.

Qwest Plans No Major Acquisitions or IPTV

After completing a months-long stratgic review, Qwest Communications essentially has decided to "stay the course." There will be "no major shifts" in Qwest's basic approach to the market.

People shouldn't expect major acquisitions or a massive move into IPTV, for example. Instead, Qwest seems to be focusing on a balance between capital investment and shareholder return issues, such as reducing debt load, buying back shares and supporting the payment of dividends.

Partnerships are the way Qwest will provide new services in areas such as video and wireless. That's good news for Sprint, who provides Qwest mobility services, and DirecTV for video entertainment. It also means Qwest will be receptive to other partnerships as well.

"We are looking at partnerships to help us with offerings in the home," Mueller says. "Partners will be a huge part of our success, going forward."

But Qwest will not be looking to make major acquisitions, or dramatically change the rate at which it invests in broadband access, undertaking a major fiber-to-home initiative, for example, though it is increasing its "fiber-to-node" efforts in a relatively controlled way.

Qwest expects by 2011 to increase its broadband penetration to increase from 23 percent to 40 percent, with higher access speeds and a nominal increase in operating costs.

The fiber-to-node deployments are not, Mueller emphasized, related to IPTV, but rather to data services. "Qwest doesn't have the scale" for that, Mueller says.

But fixed-mobile products will be launched in late 2008, to leverage the broadband access investments.

Overall, Qwest will attempt to balance capital investment with returns to shareholders, as one would conclude given Qwest's resumption of dividend payments.

Capital run rates now set at about $1.8 billion are a "good run rate for us," Edward Mueller, Qwest CEO says. "We are trying to minimize capex where it doesn't drive growth," he says. "We will try, in the network operation, be picky and minimize capital expenditures in the outside plant where it doesn't make a reasonable return for us." There also will be a bigger emphasis on "success-based" capital investment, in the enterprise space, for example.

Qwest will focus in 20 markets, including its 10-largest markets, for the FTTN upgrades. Those upgrades might include support for gaming services rather than entertainment video, with the 20 Mbps downstream access capabilities the FTTN upgrade will support. Qwest earlier had said it would spend an incremental $175 per home passed to put the FTTN network in place for 1.5 million homes.

Qwest says it will focus its wholesale efforts on "profitable expansion," suggesting a "success-based" approach to out-of-region enterprise services. The hosting part of our business has promise, Mueller says.

at&t to Drop DirecTV

at&t will stop offering DirecTV services to its customers toward the end of the first quarter. The not-unexpected move came as at&t found itself reselling both DirecTV and Dish Network services as a result of its acquisition of BellSouth, which had been a DirecTV partner. In its own territory, at&t has been partnering with Dish Network.

The Dish Network contract itself expires at the end of 2008, but at&t's longer business relationship with EchoStar, which offers the Dish Network service, probably is decisive.
DirecTV has to have anticipated the decision and has to be expected to roll out new channel and direct sales efforts early next year, to compensate for the loss of sales momentum from at&t.

It will have a lot of work to do. By some estimates, at&t accounted for an estimated 15.2 percent of DirecTV's gross additions but 58 percent of net subscriber growth. And though DirecTV probably will end 2007 with strong subscriber growth at the same level it saw in 2006, 2008 obviously will be more challenging.

Cable Squeezed on Both Ends

Most observers expect telco-delivered video to gradually take market share from cable operators, though modestly over the next couple of years. Most observers also think satellite-delivered services have crested, and will be lucky to hold onto their current market shares.

But one suspects there will be more change, longer term, than most observers now expect. For starters, video demand itself could shift to other IP formats, including at least some forms of Web video. So far, there isn't all that much evidence of shift. Consumers haven't embraced any of the devices and services that port video over to TV screens, though there continues to be evidence of a lessening of interest in linear television on the part of younger consumers.

Nearer term, satellite providers remain aggressive about high-definition TV services and pricing, and most consumers seem pleased with their satellite service.

And as compelling as many consumers find triple-play or quadruple-play services, not all buyers will find the pricing the most-compelling attraction. Some services, networks or suppliers are going to be picked as "best of breed" by some portion of the market, despite the fact that a bundle can be purchased from two providers in a market.

That will continue to put some incremental pressure on cable providers, who are using bundling, as telcos are, to lock in and protect the current customer base.

700-MHz Auction: EchoStar to Bid; DirecTV Won't

EchoStar Communications will bid for wireless spectrum in the Federal Communications Commission's auction of cho8ice 700-MHz spectrum on Jan. 24. DirecTV won't be bidding. Though the opening bids are set at $4.6 billion, the final price could range between $10 billion and $15 billion, some observers suggest, making an EchoStar win an unlikely event.

The fact that both at&t and EchoStar are bidding in the auction prohibits both of them from discussing a potential merger, so it isn't clear where the rumored at&t purchase of EchoStar might stand. The only thing that is certain is that any such talks must be on hold at the moment.

DirecTV Adds Broadband Over Powerline

DirecTV will wholesale broadband over powerline broadband access services from Current Group no later than the beginning of 2008. The move gives DirecTV the ability to create a triple play bundle of voice, video and high-speed data access in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, reaching 1.8 million homes and businesses over the next several years.

The move shows the necessity of providing a triple play offering in the mass market, whether one approaches that market from the legacy voice or legacy entertainment video business. Both DirecTV and EchoStar have been weighing their terrestrial options for some time, though both have marketing deals with the leading incumbent telephone companies as well.

DirecTV might have additional concern about those relationships since at&t bought BellSouth, which had been a DirecTV partner. It isn't clear yet whether EchoStar or DirecTV will continue to be at&t's partner in the future, but EchoStar's longer history with at&t (formerly SBC) should carry weight.

Interesting bit of trivia: The just-launched Hughes Network Systems Spaceway satellite was originally supposed to be the third bird in the fleet of IP-enabled spot beam satellites. But when DirecTV was sold off to News Corp. by the holding company that still owns HNS, the first two birds went to DirecTV.

Perhaps sadly, those two birds are used for conventional TV broadcasting rather than the mesh networking applications the satellites originally were designed to support. Linear TV, including the high-definition sort, obviously is the foundation for businesses consumers consider important.

For some of us, though, broadband Internet access is the most important application, if one could only choose a single service remain available (and that includes landline voice, mobile phone, television and fax). The spot beam and on-board router capabilities of the first two of three "Spaceway" birds wound up in the dustbin.

I don't know that the owners of those two birds would have made more money, or garnered more strategic advantage, if all three Spaceway satellites could have been used for their original intended purpose. I will say that given a choice between devoting scarce spectrum to television, when it can be used for communications (including IP and Web applications), seems like a suboptimal choice.

That said, there's little question but that DirecTV has used the capacity provided by those two former "Spaceway" satellites to shore up its competitive position in the high-definition TV area, compared to its cable competitors. "Highest and best use," I believe property assessors call it.