Will 13% of Video Subs Cut All or Some of Their Services This Year?

It probably would not surprise you if the Yankee Group suggested that younger people are more likely to stop subscribing to cable, satellite or telco video services.

It might surprise you to learn that Yankee Group believes 13 percent of current subscribers will cut all or some of their video services within 12 months.

That would be unprecedented in the history of multi-channel video.

Keep in mine that Yankee Group says the forms of "cord cutting" might take the form of terminating premium channels or halting use of video-on-demand services, as well as terminating all service entirely. Still, that would be a stunning development.

Remember When Netflix Was "Toast"?

Remember when Netflix was supposed to be "toast"? You remember the arguments: Physical media was
out, online was in; Netflix was wedded to a dying business model. Online distribution, by YouTube or
Hulu, was going to destroy Netflix.

That hasn't happened. Quite to the contrary, investors have bid up Netflix's stock by nearly 100 percent
since January 2010, in part because Netflix shows every sign of being a contender in online video. And now Hulu has announced a "paid" access model that puts it in head-to-head competition with Netflix to some extent.

True, Netflix often is thought of as primarily offering movie fare, while Hulu's content leans heavily towards TV shows.

Netflix has 14 million paying subscribers, while Hulu has about 40 million unique viewers, but so far zero paid subscribers. And that is the test for Hulu. Most observers think perhaps five percent to 10 percent of Hulu users might choose to buy the new paid service, suggesting a potential base of two million to four million paid subscribers.

If one assumes four million subscribers, at a monthly fee of $10, that implies $480 million worth of annual revenue. That's interesting, but not terribly interesting.

Location Ads Work, Study Finds

A new survey conducted by the Mobile Marketing Association suggests very-high rates of user response to advertising based on location information.

"Nearly half of those who noticed any ads while using location-based services took at least some action," MMA says. That compares to 37 percent of text message advertising and almost twice the rate of Web browser ads (28 percent).

Ten percent of the cell phone owners surveyed use mobile location services at least once a week, while 63 percent of Apple iPhone owners use location services at least once a week.

Respondents said they use these services most frequently to “locate nearby points of interest, shops or services.”

U.S. Consumers Significantly More Likely To Respond To Location-Based Mobile Ads Than Other Mobile Ad Types | Mobile Marketing Association

Developer Interest now is a 2-Horse Race: Apple and Android

Apple and Android are at the top of developer interest as development platforms, an Appcelerator poll of 1,028 developers suggests.

In fact, developer interest largely is a two-horse race between Apple and Google. The  "true game changing news" is Android, Appcelerator says. In fact, sentiment has swung fairly quickly towards Android as the clear "second choice" for developers, after Apple.

In January 2010, 86 percent of developers were interested in iPhone and 68 percent were interested in Android, an 18 point spread. That spread has closed to just six points now (iPhone 88 percent, Android 82 percent).

About 80 percent of developers say they are interested in developing for the iPad.

Developers indicated they were most interested in developing eBooks, entertainment/media applications, business applications, medical applications, and education applications.

Why Product Management Doesn't Work Anymore

Service provider product managers essentially have lost control of their products, says Al Brisard, Vertek VP. Instead, product managers essentially have been reduced to setting service definitions and pricing. Operations and finance pretty much control the rest. As often is the case, that isn't necessarily the best way to match features with end user demand.

If you want to know why service providers sometimes cannot create compelling new products, much less get them to market quickly, perhaps this is one reason why.

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Even App Store "Marketing" Apps Must be Marketed

Despite the hype about mobile apps, it remains difficult to "monetize" them, for several reasons. Most apps sell for low prices, so a developer needs huge volume. But volume means getting noticed, and simply creating an app and listing in on an app store does not guarantee attention.

That increasingly means a successful app not only has to provide value, but has to be promoted. And that means all the traditional thinking about traditional marketing still holds. Developers have to take affirmative steps to promote their apps; they won't sell themselves.

"The App Store is not a marketing vehicle; it is a distribution vehicle," said Raven Zachary, president of digital creative firm Small Society.

Of course, not all apps are sold. Some are themselves marketing vehicles. But an iPhone app can cost $50,000 or more for an agency to develop. So even the marketing vehicle must be marketed.

The U.S. Mobile Voice Market Is Saturated: So What?

The Cellular Market In The US Is Saturated – 24/7 Wall St

Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile have almost 260 million wireless subscribers. The U.S. population is 305 million people and some of those are too young to need or use a phone. Others don’t want one.

During the last quarter, Verizon added only 423,000 new contract subscribers and AT&T only 512,000 customers, rates that are lower than has been the case in past quarters.

So what does that mean? What it always means: providers will have to create new products to sell to a base of existing customers, rather than selling more of the existing product to new customers. In the cable and telecom business, that has meant both getting into new lines of business as well as "bundling."

For wireless providers, the new product is wireless broadband, immediately in the form of more smartphone data plans, but over time more use of wireless to support sensor networks of various types.

But there are wider policy implications as well. U.S. regulators sometimes behave as though nothing they do will seriously impede the ability of U.S. service providers to continue to invest and innovate. But both the wireline and wireless segments of the communications business face huge challenges. Existing growth models are exhausted and competition is growing.

Instead of behaving in ways that essentially are punitive, perhaps regulators should ask what they can do to allow the fastest-possible transition to new business models as the old models continue to waste away.

Telecom is not a growth industry; that should be obvious to all observers. The big challenge is to foster a transition to a sustainable model that will support continued investment in state-of-the-art facilities. Telecom, to put it bluntly, is not an industry that needs to be punished; it needs to be fostered.