Friday, August 13, 2010

"Nothing Bad Happens If Net Neutrality Fails"

There's a missing element in discussions about network neutrality, says Dan Frommer, Deputy Editor of Business Insider. "No one has convincingly and realistically explained what would happen that's so bad if ISPs were not forced to observe net neutrality, and if they were allowed to sell faster access to the highest bidders," Frommer says.

"The reality is that nothing really bad would happen," he maintains. Some think the internet access providers cannot be trusted. To be fair, everybody agrees with that, up to a point. The reason Adam Smith said we can rely on markets is that greedy, avaricious behavior by any actor is met in the market by offers from competitors who will offer a better deal. "Greed" is met by competition, and competition restrains greed.

Any ISP that behaves badly will quickly be met by a rival response from competitors eager to take that ISP's business and customers.

"If anything, things could get even more expensive for consumers if net neutrality is enforced," Frommer maintains. Why?

ISPs operate in competitive markets. They aren't perfectly competitive, only workably so, given the high barriers to entry.  If ISPs lose revenue opportunities because of net neutrality, they certainly will look elsewhere for new revenues, and raising effective prices is an obvious path to take.

There is an argument that if quality-assured tiers of service are allowed (something the Google-Verizon deal precludes), better-capitalized firms will be able to pay, and start-ups will not. That's mostly true.

But bandwidth costs are not the major cost item for new software upstarts. To the extent that "more bandwidth" fixes some latency issues, even real-time services can continue to use the best-effort Internet as bandwidths continue to climb.

The vast majority of Internet businesses won't pay for priority bandwidth, if it's ever available. And the ones who do will figure it into their costs of doing business, the same way they do with rent, staff and health insurance, for example.

Some will not agree. Market power is an issue in business. But competition is the natural restraint. Innovation will occur in the presence of, or despite, network neutrality rules. And the Google-Verizon agreement ensures that all application providers have exactly the same prospects in the Internet access part of the ecosystem.

If other ISPs adopt the same framework, fixed network access will remain a "best effort" service offering no advantages to any single application provider.

link

iPad Users Change Reading, Browsing, Gaming Habits

If results of a U.K. consumer poll are any indication, tablet PCs are about to change Web browsing, gaming and reading preferences.

According to survey conducted by Cooper Murphy Webb, Apple’s iPad is the preferred method of reading newspapers and magazines among consumers already owning the device.

The poll also found that a plurality of iPad owners prefer the device for reading books and gaming. Perhaps surprisingly, respondents indicated they used their dedicated gaming consoles and iPads about equally when gaming. If that holds up, it could mean trouble for game console suppliers. 

And a significant percentage prefer the iPad for Web browsing as well. That finding is less surprising, if one assumes the tablet device is designed to be used as a content consumption device.


Cooper Murphy Webb  polled 1034 U.K. iPad owners.


It's hard to tell at the moment whether the behavior of early adopters will be the same, or similar to, habits of more mainstream users.


The results, if they are replicated by other surveys, suggest the tablet has potential to disrupt and replace user behaviors for any number of other consumer electronics devices. Mobile phones and MP3 players are probably safest. PCs, notebooks, netbooks, ebook readers and game consoles would seem to be most at risk.


That's a rather broad base of devices threatened by tablet devices.

Skype Files For IPO, Only 6 Percent Of Users Pay

Skype’s proposed initial public offering may offer a bit of insight on the future of international voice revenue. According to TeleGeography, Skype represents about 13 percent of global long distance traffic.

As of June 30, Skype was averaging 124 million users a month, with only 8.1 million of those paying users (out of a total of 560 million registered users). So 6.5 percent of Skype users are paying for services.

As a rough calculation, free Skype minutes of use therefore represent about 12 percent of global traffic. If the ratio of paid to non-paid use does not change, and if Skype keeps growing, the percentage of non-paid international calling, texting and video sessions will keep growing as well.

Paying Skype users, however, pay an average of $96 a year. Skype’s strategy is to keep growing its overall number of users and convert more of them to paying customers.

At least for the moment, most international trafiic represents a revenue stream for some service providers. But the percentage of non-paid traffic seems bound to increase. At the same time, the average revenue any single session represents likely will keep falling.

This implies that voice revenues will get cheaper, on a per-minute basis, while more traffic will move to the "free" category.

Skype revenues for the first six months of 2010 were $406 million, with a net income of $13 million. But a big portion of that was from interest income. That is a three percent net margin, overall.

Its income from operations was only $1.4 million for the six months, though margins on that business are 51 percent.

Typical Smartphone User Consumes 230 Mbytes of Data a Month

 
The typical U.S. smartphone user consumes about 230 megabytes of data in a month, up about 50 percent over the last six months, says wireless consultant Chetan Sharma. 

Also, although it often is said that the U.S. lags some other world markets in terms of adoption of advanced services, this is not true for mobile broadband, where the U.S. market has become the hothouse observers in other markets are tracking, says Sharma. 

U.S. consumers will be among the very first to test, in volume, fourth-generation networks and the most-advanced 3G networks as well. 

Cox Launches 50/5 Internet Speeds in Connecticut

Cox Communications has launched residential "Ultimate Internet" service in Connecticut, providing customers three unique IP addresses, 10 e-mail addresses, and 50 hours per month of remote dial access for $99.99 per month.

What's Next for Google Voice?

 What's coming next for Google Voice? Possibly voice-activated text message creation and handling. Maybe application programming interfaces so third party developers can embed Google Voice in their applications.

Better transcription of audio into text is possible. Those of you who have used transcription in Google Voice might say it is required.

Voice-controlled actions might also be ported to platforms other than Android.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

80% of Enterprises Plan Mobile Websites

Of the 80 percent of enterprise respondents who indicated they had plans to create, or already had created mobile websites as part of their mobile marketing plans, promotion was the most-popular planned activity. But commerce applications were planned by more than 60 percent of firms.

(Click on image for larger view)

get a full copy of the study here

DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....