Monday, August 23, 2010

Dark Fiber, Wavelengths, Capacity Issues

Abovenet’s Bill LaPerch, Zayo’s Dan Caruso, Allied Fiber’s Hunter Newby, USMetroTel’s Frank Mambuca, and CityTel’s NiQ Lai talk about long-haul and metro wholesale, dark fiber and high-bandwidth access in this webcast. 
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=147513&eventID=3291152

Facebook Buys Hot Potato, Expertise is Key

Facebook had been rumoured to be looking at location-based service Hot Potato since July and chose Friday - two days after the Facebook Places launch - to confirm the deal.

Hot Potato is a halfway house between Foursquare, Twitter and Facebook Like. Users share what they are doing - whether a venue, activity, song, game or TV show - and the site lists trending terms. Its original focus was more on events, but it later broadened to any activity.

Facebook apparently is after experienced personnel to build and support its new "Places" feature.

Netflix Complementary to Cable?

As cable has lost video subscribers, Netflix has been racking them up: It had 15 million subscribers at the end of June, up 42 percent from a year earlier.

But according to Netflix chief content officer Ted Sarandos, the service ultimately is a complement to cable, not a killer: “Our product is like a motorcycle. Cable TV is like a car. If you price one cheap enough you can have both.”

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Internet Infrastructure Capex Set to Climb?

According to tech research firm PacificCrest, the global technology buildout is a $200 billion opportunity over the next five years.

The infrastructure needs include $100 billion to relieve congestion and $50 billion for boosting networks by upgrading Internet protocols. PacificCrest also estimates $54 billion is needed for new routing systems to improve data flow.

During the last cycle (2004-2008) the top five Internet firms spent roughly $15 billion on infrastructure, but that figure is expected to jump to $28 billion over the next four years.

How Do You Segment When Users Carry Multiple Devices?

You might wonder how application and service providers are going to have to refine their customer segmentation assumptions in a world where users carry multiple mobile devices with them as a matter of course.

It's bound to be a growing question. According to a recent survey by Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, 97 percent of users carry at least two mobile devices.

Perhaps more significantly, 49 percent carry three or more mobile devices. That tends to suggest the old "business" or "consumer" distinction is woefully inadequate.


Up to a point, some things remain constant. Customers still can be sorted by age, lifestyle or perhaps brand preference. The issue is that behavioral measures probably will be more important. Even users within a single age demographic, socio-economic bracket or lifestyle segment might differ radically based on the number of devices they typically carry, as well as by what applications they use.

The most-obvious potential change is that a single-device user might not have too many qualms about flat-fee pricing for broadband access on a device basis. A user with multiple devices almost certainly is going to have greater resistance to uniform pricing of that sort, and should be more receptive to an integrated access plan that provides access to multiple devices in less expensive and more flexible ways.

In fact, it might actually simplify segmentation in some ways to consider "number of devices used" as a key driver of packages and features.

Mobile Video Growth Means CDN Demand

Consumers are demanding more personalization and entertainment content on their mobile phones, driving mobile video revenue to exceed $3.5 billion in 2008, according to recent research by MultiMedia Intelligence.

By 2012, the mobile video and mobile TV market will exceed $15 billion, including direct customer payments and advertising. But most of the money is in subscriber fees. Total Mobile TV and Video advertising revenue will exceed $1 billion by 2012.

If that is the case, demand for content delivery networks will grow as well, with or without the ability to prioritize video content streams, by either access or content providers. In fact, CDNs might be more important if "best effort" delivery remains the only type of service consumers can buy.

Slowing Mobile Broadband Uptake?

Mobile broadband services and revenues include several different revenue components. Data access for smartphones is one driver.

But so are broadband "dongles" and "cards" that allow users to use 3G or 4G networks with their PCs, notebooks, netbooks or tablets.

Then there are a growing range of uses for specialized sensor networks, e-book readers and other devices that might use mobile broadband access occasionally.

It appears dongle revenues continue to climb, but possibly at a slower rate compared to 2008, at least in some markets. Yankee Group researchers say growth is slowing in France, for example.


Comparing the second quarter of 2010 with the second quarter of  2009, growth rates were 6.5 percent and 22.4 percent respectively. "We see the same trend if we compare performance during the first half of 2010 and the second half of 2009," says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

Orange, Vodafone, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telekom Austria and KPN results showed the same trend.

During the first half of 2010, mobile broadband users increased by less than 12 percent. Even allowing for seasonal buying patterns, this compares unfavorably with a growth rate of 42 percent during the second half of 2009, Lonergan says.

Will Generative AI Follow Development Path of the Internet?

In many ways, the development of the internet provides a model for understanding how artificial intelligence will develop and create value. ...