Will Google Shatter U.S. Mobile Ad Forecasts for 2012?

Could Google grow its mobile advertising to $6 billion in 2012? Here's the math. If Google's present rate of sales were extrapolated for the next 12 months, it would represent about $2.5 billion. But the growth rate seems to have accelerated sharply of late.

Google CEO Larry Page says mobile revenue has grown 2.5 times in the last 12 months.


If that rate were to continue for the next 12 months, Google would then reach a run rate on the order of $6.25 billion by the end of the period.


Actual revenues would be shy of that figure, since the highest quarterly revenue would be seen only at the end of the year. Such growth would cause analysts to dramatically revise their forecasts By some estimates, all U.S. mobile ad revenues will reach only about 1.6 billion by 2012.

Will Google See $6.25 Billion In Mobile Ad Revenue Next Year?

Google To Launch 25 YouTube Channels

YouTube has said it would start creating some professionally-produced video channels and has invested  more than $100 million in cash advances to get some of the content produced, the Wall Street Journal reports.


YouTube thinks the new channels will allow it to create a better environment for advertisers who have been reluctant to advertise around user-generated videos. Google is expected to share ad revenue with channels at some point. YouTube to launch 25 channels 

The 25 or so new channels that will offer professionally produced news, information and entertainment. Partners expected in the the first round include Warner Bros., ShineReveille, BermanBraun, FremantleMedia and skate boarder Tony Hawk.



Additional potential partners include Everyday Health,  Iconic Entertainment and DECA, which creates online-video content for women.

Verso Entertainment may produce content for YouTube related to sports.  YouTube to Launch 25 Professional Video Channels


It might be premature to start thinking of YouTube as a "cable TV" distributor, anymore than it makes sense to think about Hulu or Netflix currently representing such an alternative. But things are heading that way, some would say. 

Google Fails Fast, Often: That's a Good Thing

It might be going too far to say that Google "celebrates" failure. But Google's "beta" culture can be seen as a good thing. The Next Web took a look at 251 Google products released since 1998 and found that 90, or 36 percent, had been cancelled.

TNW notes that there were among these products eight "major flops" and "14 major successes." It is hard to say that what Google learned from the failures lead to the 14 successes.

Google fails 36% of the time

U.S. Mobile Companies Will Notify Users About Usage Caps

AT&T Inc., Verizon Wireless and other mobile service providers have agreed to begin sending alerts to customers who are approaching monthly voice, text or data limits.

The aim is to help them avoid hefty additional charges that cause what consumer advocates call bill shock.

Under the voluntary industry guidelines, companies also would send alerts when customers exceed their plans' limits and are subject to overage charges. Customers traveling abroad would be warned that they are about to incur often pricey international roaming fees, according to Federal Communications Commission officials.

The alerts will be free to customers, who will automatically receive them unless they choose not to. Service providers to send text alerts

Free texting could kill SMS business

A survey of 1143 Australian smart phone users found 44 per cent had a free instant messaging application on their devices, Telsyte telecommunications analyst Foad Fadaghi says. So far, unlimited text messaging plans have blunted displacement of SMS by over the top messaging alternatives.

Some "53 per cent of mobile instant message users in our survey indicated they have not changed the amount of SMS messages they send and receive due to mobile IM," he said.

Fadaghi said that using services like Skype to replace phone calls had been limited due to 3G network reliability issues, but many were using it to save costs on overseas calls.

In the United States, more than two trillion text messages are sent each year, generating more than $20 billion in revenue for the industry. SMS revenues account for about a third of Verizon's operating income, in fact.

Free texting could spell doom for SMS

New study quantifies the impact of broadband speed on GDP - Ericsson

A new report, conducted jointly by Ericsson, Arthur D. Little and Chalmers University of Technology in 33 OECD countries, quantifies the isolated impact of broadband speed, showing that doubling the broadband speed for an economy increases GDP by 0.3 percent.

Other studies, such as a 2009 study by the World Bank, suggest similar relationships.

A 0.3 percent GDP growth in the OECD region is equivalent to $126 billion. This corresponds to more than one seventh of the average annual OECD growth rate in the last decade.

The study also shows that additional doublings of speed can yield growth in excess of 0.3 percent (e.g. quadrupling of speed equals 0.6 percent GDP growth stimulus)

Both broadband availability and speed are strong drivers in an economy. Last year Ericsson and Arthur D. Little concluded that for every 10 percentage point increase in broadband penetration, GDP increases by one percent.

Broadband impact on GDP

Content Ecosystems are Unstable: Watch Amazon

Most observers, looking at the matter of online or over the top video, and its potential impact on cable TV, telco and satellite video providers, will grasp the potential for disruption in the video business. Music and print content businesses already have been "disrupted." Could books be next?

Some will argue, with the rise of Amazon.com, and the demise of Borders, that the disruption already has happened. But some think additional far-reaching disruption is coming. After all, changes in distribution are one thing. But new patterns in product development and creation are perhaps more fundamental.

In Amazon's case, some would argue that the Amazon.com brand, back office, logistics operation and now Kindle devices allow Amazon to become a publisher, not just a distributor. To use the analogy, perhaps Apple iTunes becomes a music publisher; Google becomes a media company; Comcast becomes a studio; Verizon Wireless becomes a bank or TV network.

That should immediately strike you as a dangerous example of growing channel conflict, and you'd be right. Amazon has the distribution network and growing success in e-book publishing building blocks in place. Above all, the trade publishing houses seem to lack Amazon's ambition, some might say. Amazon might want to make money from the entire publishing chain, not just distribution.

Indeed, one reason content ecosystems are unstable is that as revenue and profit margins compress, expanding into an adjacency in any ecosystem starts to make more sense. There are potential conflicts, to be sure. But the lure of incrementally-important revenue and the ability to raise margins can be irresistible. 

Does Amazon Want to Monopolize The Entire Publishing Chain?