Sunday, October 16, 2011

Content Ecosystems are Unstable: Watch Amazon

Most observers, looking at the matter of online or over the top video, and its potential impact on cable TV, telco and satellite video providers, will grasp the potential for disruption in the video business. Music and print content businesses already have been "disrupted." Could books be next?

Some will argue, with the rise of Amazon.com, and the demise of Borders, that the disruption already has happened. But some think additional far-reaching disruption is coming. After all, changes in distribution are one thing. But new patterns in product development and creation are perhaps more fundamental.

In Amazon's case, some would argue that the Amazon.com brand, back office, logistics operation and now Kindle devices allow Amazon to become a publisher, not just a distributor. To use the analogy, perhaps Apple iTunes becomes a music publisher; Google becomes a media company; Comcast becomes a studio; Verizon Wireless becomes a bank or TV network.

That should immediately strike you as a dangerous example of growing channel conflict, and you'd be right. Amazon has the distribution network and growing success in e-book publishing building blocks in place. Above all, the trade publishing houses seem to lack Amazon's ambition, some might say. Amazon might want to make money from the entire publishing chain, not just distribution.

Indeed, one reason content ecosystems are unstable is that as revenue and profit margins compress, expanding into an adjacency in any ecosystem starts to make more sense. There are potential conflicts, to be sure. But the lure of incrementally-important revenue and the ability to raise margins can be irresistible. 

No comments:

It Will be Hard to Measure AI Impact on Knowledge Worker "Productivity"

There are over 100 million knowledge workers in the United States, and more than 1.25 billion knowledge workers globally, according to one A...