It's a provocative question, but looking at adoption of mobile operating systems, you have to wonder whether the smart phone platform wars are just about over. Microsoft would argue otherwise, and lots of people seem to think that is not an empty boast. Research in Motion might say the same thing, but more people are skeptical about a RIM comeback. Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Are Mobile Platform Wars Just About Over?
It's a provocative question, but looking at adoption of mobile operating systems, you have to wonder whether the smart phone platform wars are just about over. Microsoft would argue otherwise, and lots of people seem to think that is not an empty boast. Research in Motion might say the same thing, but more people are skeptical about a RIM comeback. 
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
85% of Mobile Users Will have 3G by 2017
Though fourth generation Long Term Evolution networks tend to get most of the attention these days, third generation GSM will, by far, be the dominant network for most people who use mobile networks or mobile broadband.
By 2017, 85 percent of the world's population will have 3G coverage, Ericsson says.
About 75 percent of the HSPA networks worldwide have been upgraded to a peak speed of 7.2 Mbps or above and around 40 percent have been upgraded to 21 Mbps.
And though, by 2017, 50 percent of the world's population will be covered by 4G networks that doesn’t mean that most people who have access to LTE actually use it. It takes time for new handsets, working with the latest air interface, reach critical mass in any market.
For many people around the world, the mobile phone also will be the only means of accessing the internet. According to Ericsson, 85 percent of the world's population will have internet coverage from a 3G network by 2017, and there will be close to nine billion mobile subscriptions in use, compared to six billion by the end of 2011.
Smart phone subscriptions expected to reach three billion in 2017, about a third of all users globally, and global data traffic to grow 15 times by the end of 2017, Ericsson also says.
Mobile broadband subscriptions, meanwhile, are forecast to reach five billion in 2017, compared to one billion by the end of 2011.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Android and iOS Platforms Growing, All Others Shrinking
More than 107 million people in the U.S. owned smart phones during the three months ending in April, up six percent over January 2012, according to comScore.
Google Android ranked as the top smartphone platform with 50.8 percent market share (up 2.2 percentage points). Apple’s share of the smartphone market increased 1.9 percentage points to 31.4 percent. RIM ranked third with 11.6 percent share, followed by Microsoft (4.0 percent) and Symbian (1.3 percent), comScore says.
Google Android ranked as the top smartphone platform with 50.8 percent market share (up 2.2 percentage points). Apple’s share of the smartphone market increased 1.9 percentage points to 31.4 percent. RIM ranked third with 11.6 percent share, followed by Microsoft (4.0 percent) and Symbian (1.3 percent), comScore says.
| Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Apr. 2012 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Jan. 2012 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens | |||
| Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers | |||
| Jan-12 | Apr-12 | Point Change | |
| Total Smartphone Subscribers | 100.0% | 100.0% | N/A |
| 48.6% | 50.8% | 2.2 | |
| Apple | 29.5% | 31.4% | 1.9 |
| RIM | 15.2% | 11.6% | -3.6 |
| Microsoft | 4.4% | 4.0% | -0.4 |
| Symbian | 1.5% | 1.3% | -0.2 |
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Apple and Google Map War is about Ad Revenue
Mobile ads associated with maps or locations are estimated to account for about 25 percent of the roughly $2.5 billion spent on mobile ads in 2012, according to Opus Research, up from 10 percent in 2010. That is reason enough for a battle over map applications. The reason maps get so much advertising is that geo-location is a fairly serious indicator of purchase intent when a retailer is searched for, within a map app.
Up to this point, Google Maps is used by more than 90 percent of U.S. iPhone users, the Wall Street Journal reports.
But if you believe location based advertising is going to be a big deal, then control of inventory is important. On Google's search engine, 20 percent of searches are for local information.
Digital ad spending by local businesses in 2011 reached $21.2 billion, a figure that is expected to increase by more than 12 percent annually, according to BIA/Kelsey.
The Apple move comes as Google has started to charge app providers a fee for use of Google Maps.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Larger Screen Devices Don't Always Get Better Click Through Rates
As a rule, people will tend to use the largest screen available to them when interacting with web content.
Also, one tends to find that larger screens lead to better display ad effectiveness.
But the rule isn't iron clad.
Jumptap recently found that screen size doesn’t always matter when it comes to mobile ad performance.
The Amazon Kindle Fire, which measures seven inches in length, had a 1.02 percent click-through rate (CTR) while the slightly larger, 9.7 inch iPad had a 0.9 percent click-through rate.
While tablets tend to have higher CTRs than smartphones, screen size isn’t always a predictor.
Jumptap also says Millennials tend to prefer Apple iPads, while their parents tend to prefer Kindle Fire devices.
Data from comScore and Jumptap show that ownership of tablets is heaviest among older Millennials between the ages of 25 and 34.
But Millennials as a whole (people 18 to 34) are most likely to use an iPad while Baby Boomers are the heaviest users of the Kindle Fire.
Jumptap also says Millennials tend to prefer Apple iPads, while their parents tend to prefer Kindle Fire devices.
Data from comScore and Jumptap show that ownership of tablets is heaviest among older Millennials between the ages of 25 and 34.
But Millennials as a whole (people 18 to 34) are most likely to use an iPad while Baby Boomers are the heaviest users of the Kindle Fire.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Online Video Advertising Isn't Attractive Enough to Cause Disruption, Yet
U.S. programming networks earn something on the order of $30 billion a year in licensing fees from U.S. video distributors, and something on the order of $25 billion in advertising based on those audiences.
Today, all online video advertising, in aggregate, probably represents something on the order of $2 billion annually.
So no rational network executive is going to jeopardize $55 billion in annual revenue to try and chase a single-digit billions business. That doesn't mean change will not happen. It just won't happen soon.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Nobody Challenges Apple iPad, Yet
A May 2012 ChangeWave survey of 2,893 consumers took a close-up look at North American tablet demand, and finds the Apple iPad continuing to dominate consumer buying plans. The only other manufacturer that is showing some signs of momentum is Samsung.
About 73 percent of planned tablet buyers are still reporting they'll purchase an iPad. That is down from the 84 percent of respondents that indicated a preference for Apple in February 2012, but is still sheer dominance by any measure.
Competitors have to hope that long-term market share more resembles the PC or smart phone markets than the MP3 player market. The reason is that Apple continues to hold 78 percent share of the MP3 player market.
In PCs Apple might have only 10 percent to 11 percent share. In smart phones Apple has about 25 percent share.
About 73 percent of planned tablet buyers are still reporting they'll purchase an iPad. That is down from the 84 percent of respondents that indicated a preference for Apple in February 2012, but is still sheer dominance by any measure.
Competitors have to hope that long-term market share more resembles the PC or smart phone markets than the MP3 player market. The reason is that Apple continues to hold 78 percent share of the MP3 player market.
In PCs Apple might have only 10 percent to 11 percent share. In smart phones Apple has about 25 percent share.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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