Economic Growth So Sluggish that the Apple iPhone 5 Could Boost GDP

Sales of the new Apple iPhone could add between a quarter and a half of a percentage point to the annualized rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli estimates. 

The forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers reduced its forecasts for economic growth to a 1.5 percent annual rate in the third-quarter and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter. 

So it is that a single smart phone going on sale for the first time can move the needle. 

Europe Communications Gear Markets are Global Weak Spot

If you have been following 2012 communications service provider sales and revenue, you know it has not been a good year. That also is true of overall information technology sales.

Measured in local currencies to eliminate currency fluctuations, 2012 IT product growth will be  3.6 percent,  lower than Forrester Research's January 2012 prediction of 5.3 percent. 

Slower economic growth in the United States, Europe, China, and India, is the reason for the slower growth, says  Forrester Research

But Forrester Research also points out that the slowdown is concentrated in Europe, and notably,  and one technology product category: communications equipment. 

In local currency terms, the tech markets of the United States and Asia Pacific will grow by four percent to five percent, while emerging markets in Latin America and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa will expand by over eight percent.

The weak spot will be Western and Central Europe, where the tech market will shrink by 2.5 percent. Software, IT consulting and systems integration services, and IT outsourcing will grow by four percent to five percent or more, and computer equipment by almost three percent.

But communications equipment purchases will decline by almost one percent. 

JP Morgan Raises Tablet Forecast, Lowers PC Forecast

JP Morgan has raised its forecast of tablet sales and revenue, while lowering sales and revenue forecasts for PCs. 

The revised 2012 tablet revenue estimate is $57.7 billion, where it was $52.8 billion previously. The revised tablet unit estimate is 118.5 million, compared to 106.8 million previously. 

The implied 2012 growth rates of revenue and unit estimates are 50.4 percent and 67.5 percent, versus 40.5 percent and 53.5 percent previously. 

JP Morgan also expects increasing pressures on pricing as tablet vendors test price elasticity. So JP Morgan also has revised its 2012 tablet average selling price to $487, down from the $495 previously expected. And JP Morgan admits the ASP reduction "may not be conservative enough," implying a belief that ASPs could drop more than that. 

None of those revisions will come as much of a surprise. Tablets are the new "hot" device in the consumer electronics business. Moreover, tablets are well suited to the growing "main" function of a digital appliance, namely content consumption. 

In past years, the demand for content consumption was clearest in the case of MP3 players. These days, the primacy of other forms of content consumption, which had been only latent when most people consumed such content on PCs, now increasingly is visible. 

As it turns out, for many people, the lead applications for an Internet-connected device revolve around content consumption, not content creation, as was the case for PCs. 

So do tablets "replace" PCs? Yes and no. Tablets are not substitutes for PCs where it comes to many forms of content creation. But tablets are useful and viable substitutes for the consumption related functions of a computing device connected to the Internet. 

89% of Mobile App Store Downloads are "Free"

Once upon a time, many thought mobile app stores would create a huge app sales business. It hasn't turned out that way. 

Free apps will account for 89 percent of total downloads in 2012, according to Gartner. Worldwide mobile app store downloads will surpass 45.6 billion in 2012, with free downloads accounting for 40.1 billion, and paid-for downloads totaling five billion.

In-app purchases, on the other hand, will drive 41 percent of app revenue in 2016. Gartner expects the number of downloads featuring in-app purchase will increase from 5 percent of total downloads in 2011 to 30 percent in 2016, and its contribution to the store revenue will increase from 10 to 41 percent in the same period. 

"In terms of the apps that consumers are buying, 90 percent of the paid-for downloads cost less than $3 each," said Sandy Shen, Gartner research director. "Apps between 99 cents and $2.99 will account for 87.5 percent of paid-for downloads in 2012, and 96 percent by 2016."

Gartner expects Apple's App Store to have more than 21 billion downloads in 2012, which is an increase of 74 percent over 2011. 

Global Mobile App Store Downloads, 2010-2016 (Millions)

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Free Downloads	22,044	40,599	73,280	119,842	188,946	287,933
Paid-for Downloads	2,893	5,018	8,142	11,853	16,430	21,672
Total Downloads	24,936	45,617	81,422	131,695	205,376	309,606
Free Downloads %	88.4%	89.0%	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%	93.0%

Source: Gartner (September 2012)

74% of U.S. Mobile Users 25 to 34 Have Smart Phones

U.S. smart phone penetration continued to grow in July 2012, with 55.5 percent of mobile subscribers in the U.S. now owning smartphones, according to Nielsen.  

This is a significant increase compared to July 2011 when only 41 percent of mobile subscribers owned smartphones. 

Overall, young adults are leading the growth in smart phone ownership in the U.S., with 74 percent of 25-34 year olds now owning smart phones smart phones, up from 59 percent in July 2011. 

Teenagers between 13 and 17 years old showed the most dramatic increases in smart phone adoption, with the majority of American teens (58 percent) owning a smart phone, compared to roughly a third (36 percent) of teens saying they owned a smart phone just a year ago.

What's Good for Apple Might be Doubly Good for Amazon

Many observers would note that Apple's registered iTunes users are a potential business asset. If so, Amazon is even better placed. Perhaps 31 percent of Amazon users have a credit cards on file with Amazon. 

In a Forrester survey of 4,650 US consumers conducted online in August 2012, 31 percent reported that they had a credit card on file with Amazon, compared with 18 percent that have one stored with Apple, and five percent with Google. 

Amazon and Apple approach the respective roles of content and devices in opposite ways. Apple merchandises content to sell devices, while Amazon merchandises devices to sell content, services and goods.

Amazon reports that in 2011, consumers that bought a Kindle read four times the books (print and digital) they did before they bought a Kindle; that's up from 2.8 times in 2008. 

Also, some 23 percent of consumers Forrester Research surveyed also said they'd be interested in purchasing an Amazon smart phone,  it were available.

60% of Viewed Online Video is "Long Form," Ooyala Video Index Indicates

Long-form video content such as movies, sports and TV shows accounted for more than 60 percent of the total time users spent watching video online in the second quarter, a study by Ooyala notes. The share of time tablet viewers spent watching long-form videos also grew 47 percent in a single quarter, Ooyala says. 

The Global Video Index, derived from the viewing trends of 200 million online viewers around the globe from April 1 through June 30, 2012, shows the lines between broadband and broadcast media continuing to blur as premium content shifts to a more mobile, multi-screen environment.

Long-form video running longer than 10 minutes represented more than half of all viewing for the first time in the second quarter of 2012. 

The growth of video consumption has been rapid. Tablet, mobile, connected TV video views doubled between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the third quarter of 2011, Ooyala says.