Free apps will account for 89 percent of total downloads in 2012, according to Gartner. Worldwide mobile app store downloads will surpass 45.6 billion in 2012, with free downloads accounting for 40.1 billion, and paid-for downloads totaling five billion.
In-app purchases, on the other hand, will drive 41 percent of app revenue in 2016. Gartner expects the number of downloads featuring in-app purchase will increase from 5 percent of total downloads in 2011 to 30 percent in 2016, and its contribution to the store revenue will increase from 10 to 41 percent in the same period.
"In terms of the apps that consumers are buying, 90 percent of the paid-for downloads cost less than $3 each," said Sandy Shen, Gartner research director. "Apps between 99 cents and $2.99 will account for 87.5 percent of paid-for downloads in 2012, and 96 percent by 2016."
Gartner expects Apple's App Store to have more than 21 billion downloads in 2012, which is an increase of 74 percent over 2011.
Global Mobile App Store Downloads, 2010-2016 (Millions)
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
Free Downloads | 22,044 | 40,599 | 73,280 | 119,842 | 188,946 | 287,933 |
Paid-for Downloads | 2,893 | 5,018 | 8,142 | 11,853 | 16,430 | 21,672 |
Total Downloads | 24,936 | 45,617 | 81,422 | 131,695 | 205,376 | 309,606 |
Free Downloads % | 88.4% | 89.0% | 90.0% | 91.0% | 92.0% | 93.0% |
Source: Gartner (September 2012)
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