Location's Role in Mobile Ad Effectiveness

It is drop dead simple why mobile has a unique advantage in the advertising and promotions business. Simply stated, people are more likely to interact with ads or messages or promotions when they are physically in proximity to a particular business using mobile for messaging. 

Telecom Capital Investment 2013 to 2030 will be $9.5 Trillion

If one assumes a global requirement to invest $57 trillion in non-telecom infrastructure between 2013 and 2030, about 60 percent more than was invested in global infrastructure in the most recent 18 years, there are some rather obvious conclusions for telecom investment.

Competition for capital roads, power, bridges and other infrastructure will be severe. The telecom itself will need to invest about $9.5 trillion  between 2013 and 2030, McKinsey Group estimates.

Given debt loads most countries face, it is not likely there will be too much extra funding available to help service providers create all that new infrastructure. So the growing trend of serious regulator thinking about how to create incentives for investment is not misplaced.

Each Cloud Segment Has a Different Leader

At least so far, each of several cloud services segments seems to have a different market leader, with the caveat that what one means by "cloud" service can vary.  

Cloud infrastructure service revenues grew 15 percent between the fourth quarter of  2011 and the fourth quarter of  2012 to reach USD$12.5 billion. 

Amazon continues to lead the infrastructure and platform as a service portions of the cloud  services market.

While revenues associated with the IaaS and PaaS segments account for only 15 percent of the overall market, over the past yea IaaS revenues grew 55 percent while PaaS revenues grew 57 percent

The more mature managed hosting part of the business grew six percent (some people might not classify traditional hosting as a cloud service). 

The co-location segment grew 13 percent. Combined, co-location and hosting account for 74 percent of total "cloud" revenues. Synergy also considers content delivery networks part of the cloud services market. 

Not all observers would consider either hosting or colocation, or content delivery networks, to be part of the core cloud computing market. 

Cloud Infrastructure Service Market Leaders by Segment, Q4 2012

Source: Synergy Research Group/TeleGeography

Mobile Growth Shifts

Between now and 2017, the global installed base of mobile subscriptions will grow to 8.9 billion, and 80 percent of those subsciptions will be added in developing countries, according to Strategy Analytics.

Subscriptions in developing countries will grow at a compound annual rate of 7.5 percent, substantially faster than the 2.8 percent growth that will be seen in developed countries. 

With worldwide mobile service revenue growth slowing to about two percent per year through 2017, developing countries like Nigeria, where revenue is growing at twice that rate, can be very attractive markets to international players, according to Phil Kendall, Strategy Analytics director. 

The Middle East and Africa, for example, will generate 28 percent revenue growth between 2012 and 2017. 

The developing countries are changing dramatically as markets for communications devices and services in large part because disposable income is growing.

The African Development Bank estimated that in 2010 more than a third of Africa's population - some 350 million people - could be counted as middle class, up from 220 million in 2000. That will drive broadband services growth, as well as mobile services adoption. 

Does Georgia Decison Signal a Turn of Sentiment for Municipal Broadband?

It might be way too early to say sentiment about municipal broadband, in U.S. state legislatures, has shifted, but the defeat of a bill in the Georgia legislature that would have banned   municipal broadband networks could indicate movement.

The bill reportedly would have outlawed municipal broadband networks where a private service supplier already offers service. That would be a relatively rare reversal, as 19 states have some restrictions on municipal broadband, according to the Institute for Local Self-Reliance  

There are legitimate issues. Many would say government entities generally should not compete with private entities using tax and other advantages a non-profit entity can take advantage of.

On the other hand, competition in the Internet service provider business is generally seen as promoting end user welfare. 

And as a growing number of non-traditional access methods indicate, there actually are new models other than telco, cable, satellite or independent ISP models. The Fon initiative, for example, is showing that "user-contributed" access networks are feasible in some instances. 

Perhaps the Georgia legislature is signaling something bigger, namely a willingness to allow more experimentation about broadband services, and who can provide them. 

For Service Providers, Tablets Might Not Matter, Video Does

Whether the “post-PC” device trend will help or harm mobile and fixed network Internet service providers is not completely clear. What does seem clear is that video entertainment preferences and behavior will be the primary development, use of devices arguably being secondary.

Bell Labs predicts  that, by 2020, consumers in the United States alone will consume seven hours of video each day, compared to 4.8 hours in 2012,, and will increasingly consume this additional video on  tablets, both at home and on the go. Those figures include consumption of standard linear TV, time shifted video and “on demand” video, as well as use of video communications.

As you might guess, on demand programming will be key. Some 70 percent of daily video consumption will be of on-demand sources, compared with 33 percent “live” content. Overall, Internet video consumption will grow by a factor of 12, Bell Labs predicts.
The total time spent watching video likely will take the form of multi-tasking, so users might “watch” seven hours of video in five hours, including situations where a TV is on and a user is engaged in a video call as well. 

The proportion of time spent watching video-on-demand services and web-based video will
grow from 33 percent to 77 percent, meaning the relative share of viewing time for linear TV will drop from 66 percent to about 10 percent.

Some 10.5 percent of video on demand and 8.5 percent of over the top  video consumption will
occur at the peak hour of 8:00 p.m.

"Post-PC" Sales Trends

In 2012, global PC shipments dropped  3.7 percent, year over year, according to IDC.

IDC now expects 2013 PC shipments. to decline by 1.3 percent, as well. Microsoft and Intel had been hoping that the Windows 8 launch would provide sales momentum, but IDC says that failed to happen.

Christmas and holiday sales were disappointing, IDC says. Also, information technology budgets were tight in the second half of 2012. All of that contributed to a year-over-year decline of 8.3 percent in fourth quarter PC shipments, the most substantial decline recorded for a holiday quarter, IDC maintains.

Emerging market growth also is declining. In 2012 was the first year that emerging markets saw a volume decline. IDC expects  2013 will see sales growth of less than one percent, continuing at about that rate through 2017.

In developed markets, 2013 will mark the third consecutive year of volume declines. IDC expects limited growth in 2014 and 2015 with PC sales declines in later years.

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