Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Verizon Plans "5G" Field Tests in 2016

Verizon says it is accelerating its fifth generation network activity by conducting field trials of “5G” technology (technically pre-5G, since the standard does not yet exist) in 2016.

Verizon's field trials will include gear and software from Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm and Samsung.
As part of the work, 5G network environments, or "sandboxes," are being created in Verizon's Waltham, Mass., and San Francisco Innovation Centers.

"5G is no longer a dream of the distant future," said Roger Gurnani, Verizon EVP and chief information and technology architect for Verizon. "We feel a tremendous sense of urgency to push forward on 5G and mobilize the ecosystem by collaborating with industry leaders and developers to usher in a new generation of innovation."

Would Smartphone Leasing be Good for Everyone in the Ecosytem?

Wider adoption of smartphone leasing programs could be beneficial for device makers, mobile service providers and consumers alike, some believe.

We expect smartphone leasing to continue to replace subsidies and eventually equipment installment plans in the U.S., especially at market share gainers T-Mobile and Sprint,” analyst Kevin Smithen of Macquarie Securities said.

The key advantage is shifted capital investment in devices on the part of the service provider. Device leasing could provide a boost for handset suppliers as well.

“Sprint’s ‘iPhone for Life’ and other industry leasing plans are much better for Apple than EIP plans because they force the consumer to turn in the phone and upgrade after two-years rather than allowing the customer to keep the device as in EIP,” Smithen argues.

Think of that as a forced obsolescence program, with all the advantages that tends to confer. Plus there is a residual value capture by the leasing entity.

Getting Spectrum Policy Right is Crucial, Juniper Research Says

Getting spectrum issues right will be a critical factor in the success of 5G, argues analyst Nitin Bhas of Juniper Research. “It is critical to 5G’s success that the most feasible and appropriate spectrum bands are assigned, not only to support existing high bandwidth and capacity requirements, but also the wide ranging devices and applications contributing towards the Internet of Everything”, Bhas said.

For many, the most shocking attributes of 5G will include the low latency, high bandwidth and extremely high frequencies. Latencies might be as low as one millisecond, bandwidths might range from one Gbps to 10 Gbps per device, and frequencies will include millimeter wavelengths that have generally be commercially unfeasible for consumer applications.

A new report from Juniper Research forecasts initial adoption by 2020, with rapid adoption for 5G from 2025 onwards, with active connections representing a threefold increase from 2024 to reach 240 million by then.  

However, this will represent a very limited global reach, accounting for approximately three percent of global mobile connections.


5G will be the subject of the most complex set of standardisation activities over the next five years before first roll-out of commercial services in 2020.

Juniper expects Japan and South Korea to be amongst the first countries to launch commercial 5G services.

A number of operators from this region have chosen their suppliers and set a commercial service dates. The region will witness a very high rate of growth in connections similar to that of North America. While none of the US operators have made any public announcements regarding 5G trials or pilots, Juniper feels that given its current 4G leadership, the US will closely follow the Far East & China in deployment and adoption.

A new  whitepaper, Need for 5G: Hot Pursuit, is available to download from the Juniper Research website together with further details of new research on the subject.

Storage Spending Shows Cloud Push

Total worldwide enterprise storage systems factory revenue grew 2.1 percent year over year to $8.8 billion during the second quarter of 2015 (2Q15), according to International Data Corporation (IDC). And the direction of spending it toward cloud-based storage.

Spending is shifting to “cloud-based storage, integrated systems, software-defined storage, and flash-optimized storage systems at the expense of traditional external arrays,” said IDC research director Eric Sheppard.

Revenue growth was strongest within the group of original design manufacturers that sell directly to hyperscale datacenters. This portion of the market was up 25.8 percent year over year to $1 billion.

Sales of server-based storage were up 10 percent during the quarter and accounted for $2.1 billion in revenue.

External storage systems remained the largest market segment, but the $5.7 billion in sales represented a -3.9 percent year-over-year decline. Total capacity shipments were up 37 percent year over year to 30.3 exabytes during the quarter.

Top 5 Vendors, Disk Storage Systems Market, 2Q 2015
(Revenues in US$ Millions)
Vendor
2Q15
Revenue
2Q15 Market
Share
2Q14
Revenue
2Q14 Market
Share
2Q15/2Q14
Revenue
Growth
1. EMC
$1,693
19.2%
$1,764
20.4%
-4.0%
2. HP
$1,431
16.2%
$1,317
15.2%
8.7%
3. Dell
$889
10.1%
$916
10.6%
-2.9%
4. IBM†
$712
8.1%
$1,002
11.6%
-28.9%
5. NetApp
$615
7.0%
$765
8.8%
-19.6%
ODM Direct
$1,012
11.5%
$804
9.3%
25.8%
Others
$2,482
28.1%
$2,090
24.1%
18.8%
All Vendors
$8,835
100.0%
$8,657
100.0%
2.1%
Source: IDC

Has LTE Hit Global Inflection Point?

Long Term Evolution fourth generation network (4G) subscribers globally passed the 750 million market in September 2015, according to the Global mobile Suppliers Association.

That might be an important subscriber milestone, as it represents 10 percent adoption, globally.

Historically, in the U.S. consumer electronics market, 10-percent adoption has been the inflection point at which adoption of any popular new gadget or service dramatically accelerates. If that pattern can be said to apply to global markets as well, then we should now see a sharp acceleration in LTE adoption rates globally.


There were 755 million LTE subscriptions worldwide on 30 June 2015, said Alan Hadden, GSA VP. Some "441 million LTE subscriptions were added in the past year, equivalent to 140 percent annual growth.”

GSA forecasts there will be at least one billion LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2015.


Sunday, September 6, 2015

Do Users Really Spend 90% of Mobile Internet Time in Apps?

About 90 percent of smartphone internet time is spent in using apps, while 11 percent of time is spent using the mobile web, according to Nielsen, even if consumers do not agree.

In fact, the Internet Advertising Bureau suggests, much mobille app use might actually be a form of mobile Web usage, as when links in apps send users to web pages.

Higher Content Prices Producing Lower Sales? Books, Not Just Video, Seeing the Trend

One reason retail prices for linear video entertainment subscriptions do not fall, as do prices for virtually all other communications services, is the content nature of the product, which creates uniqueness and scarcity, which in turn props up prices.

It also appears to be true that overpricing of desired content depresses sales, especially when product alternatives are available. That, most concede, is why consumers slowly are abandoning linear video.

Other content businesses face similar pressures.

By now we all are familiar with the reality that the Internet wrings out cost from every industry and market it touches. We understand the principle that users increasingly view apps, content and transactions as activities that should not cost much, if they cost anything in a direct, out of pocket payment sense.

So it perhaps comes as no surprise that book publishers, now better able to set their own prices for e-book sales--and setting them higher--are finding that fewer consumers seem to be willing to pay the higher prices.

To be sure, that is what one might expect: higher prices tend to produce lower sales. For anything but a luxury good, that would not be unexpected.

Specifically, “three big publishers that signed new pacts with Amazon— Lagardere SCA’s Hachette Book Group, News Corp’s HarperCollins Publishers and CBS Corp.’s Simon & Schuster—reported declining e-book revenue in their latest reporting periods,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

To be sure, with content products there always is the subjective matter of  whether the current content resonates with buyers. Sometimes hit movies, songs or books get marketed, while at other times the products might not be so strong. It is possible that the data only reflect a lull in product desirability,  measured in terms of  consumer interest in buying.


But it might also be the case that book products, like most other content, simply faces price resistance in the digital domain, as do most other digital products.  

It is tempting to speculate that, as is the case for  many other digital products, we might also be seeing a “winner takes all” sort of trend, where most of the revenue or profit is generated by a relatively few number of hit titles.

But book publishing had a “hits” dynamic before content went digital. And many would argue digital distribution enables a “longer tail” of sales of less popular titles.

The bad news for book publishers might be, though, that the Internet is simply wringing profit out of the business, as it so often does. Publishers are free to price as they like. But consumers also are free to refuse to buy.

Will AI Fuel a Huge "Services into Products" Shift?

As content streaming has disrupted music, is disrupting video and television, so might AI potentially disrupt industry leaders ranging from ...