Thursday, November 19, 2015

Will Internet Content Business Eventually Face Regulation?

Historically, content businesses in the United States have tended to develop in “vertically integrated” form, and then are subjected to regulation to prevent full integration. That is why there are ownership restrictions on movie studies owning theatrical exhibition assets, or limits on TV networks owning local broadcast TV stations.
Online content markets are too new to have developed major political pushback against integration.
But content ecosystem roles are evolving in ways that mimic older forms of vertical integration, and might eventually lead to new restrictions on such integration. For that moment, that remains a distant probability.
In the older model, while some degree of multi-role ownership is permitted, roles were fairly separated. TV networks were mostly relegated to program development, while others handled distribution.
The emerging online markets have yet to take full form. But one notable trend is that, in most cases, ecosystem contestants are attempting to operate in multiple roles. Google might mostly be a platform, but it also has become a distributor and an access provider. So far, Google has made fewer strides toward a content producer or packager role, compared to Amazon, but that seems to be on the horizon.
Netflix and Amazon mostly are distributors, but also partly content developers. Verizon and BT mostly have been distributors and access providers, but are moving into other roles in content packaging.
Such blurring of ecosystem roles also is characteristic of any unstable industry, especially those undergoing technology change and business model evolution. Typically, contestants first move into the adjacent roles. Content creators (studios and producers) look at packaging (Hulu).
Packagers move into content creation (Amazon or Netflix). In fact, in an online delivery context, the roles of packaging and distribution fuse, in many cases. Netflix both packages and distributes.
In the case of Amazon producing its Kindle devices, a further move into user interface also has occurred. In an online ecosystem, the role of “platform” likely also must be added, something Facebook and Google best exemplify.
Apple would occupy the primary role of user interface, but also became a packager and distributor with iTunes.
As always, vertical integration makes sense for a content business. Just as inevitably, at some point, regulators step in. That will be quite messy.  
source: Jeffrey Funk

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

You Can't Sell Internet Access to a Person Who Doesn't Know Why They Care About Internet Apps

People have to know why they want to use the Internet before it makes sense to consider buying Internet access, especially when disposable income is hard to come by, according to Chris Weasler of Facebook.


Is access the only barrier to India Internet adoption? from PTC-TV on Vimeo.

India Mobile Market is Unusually, Though Not Uniquely, Difficult

Some mobile markets are more challenging than others. Consider India, for example. Less spectrum than generally is available, low average revenue per user, higher spectrum and infrastructure costs are among those obstalces, according to Rajan Mathews of the Cellular Operators Association of India. 



India Mobile Market is Unusually Challenging from PTC-TV on Vimeo.

How Much Can Rural Indians Afford to Pay for Internet Access?

Professor Rekha Jain frames the issue. 



How Much Can Rural Villagers Afford to Pay for Internet Access? from PTC-TV on Vimeo.

Sprint Promotion Offers New Subscribers 50% Lower Than What They Now are Paying AT&T, Verizon or T-Mobile US

In a promotion aimed at grabbing price leadership from T-Mobile US, Sprint has launched a promotion simply offering service at half of Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile US rate plans.


U.S. Cable TV Companies Accounted for All High Speed Access Account Gains in Third Quarter 2015

U.S. cable TV companies accounted for all the net growth in high speed Internet access connections in the third quarter, adding about 788,000 net accounts. U.S. telcos lost a net 143,000 accounts in the third quarter.

AT&T had a negative net rate of growth for its Internet access services in the third quarter of 2015, adding U-verse connections but losing copper connections, as has been the case for some years. Verizon added about 2,000 net connections, according to Leichtman Research Group.

CenturyLink and Windstream also lost customers, on a net basis, in the third quarter.

Collectively, the top U.S. cable TV companies have 61 percent of the installed base of customers, while the top telcos have about 39 percent of the installed base. Cable TV companies have steadily gained share in the high speed access market over the past several years.

The 17 largest cable TV and telephone providers in the United States, representing about 94 percent of the market, acquired about 645,000 net additional high speed Internet access  subscribers in the third quarter of 2015.

The top cable TV companies added about 790,000 broadband subscribers in the quarter. The top telephone companies lost about 140,000 broadband subscribers in the third quarter of  2015, compared to a gain of about 110,000 in the same quarter of 2014.

AT&T and Verizon added 305,000 U-verse and FiOS in the quarter, offset by a net loss of 432,000 digital subscriber line subscribers.

In the first three quarters of 2015, cable companies added about 2,300,000 broadband subscribers, while telcos lost about 130,000 subscribers.

ISPs
Subscribers at End
of 3Q 2015
Net Adds in
3Q 2015
Cable Companies


Comcast
22,868,000
320,000
Time Warner Cable
13,016,000
246,000
Charter
5,441,000
147,000
Cablevision
2,784,000
3,000
Suddenlink
1,202,400
21,600
Mediacom
1,067,000
16,000
WOW (WideOpenWest)
712,300
(800)
Cable ONE
496,865
(171)
Other Major Private Cable Companies**
6,675,000
35,000
Total Top Cable
54,262,565
787,629
Telephone Companies


AT&T
15,832,000
(129,000)
Verizon
9,223,000
2,000
CenturyLink
6,071,000
(37,000)
Frontier^
2,415,500
27,000
Windstream
1,109,600
(11,200)
FairPoint^^
313,982
(1,338)
Cincinnati Bell
281,300
6,200
Total Top Telephone Companies
35,246,382
(143,338)
Total Broadband
89,508,947
644,291
source: Leichtman Research Group

Smartphone Data Consumption Growing 50% Annually

There are at least four reasons why much more bandwidth will be needed to support mobile Internet access, virtually everywhere: more users, more usage, more smartphones and more bandwidth-intensive apps.

The forecast growth of mobile subscribers globally has been remarkably true to the predicted adoption curve. Still, subscriber growth will slow, as the market for services used by humans, around 2020.


Higher usage, driven by wider adoption of smartphones, as well as consumption of high-bandwidth apps such as video, will account for most of the usage growth, however.

Between 2015 and 2021, consumption per smartphone will grow nine times in Western Europe, five times in Central and Eastern Europe, nearly six times in the Middle East and Africa, nearly seven times in Asia Pacific, nearly six times in North American and five times in South America.

Smartphone adoption will be key: mobile Internet consumption on smartphones is growing at a compound annual growth rate of 50 percent.



DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....