Record Number of DDoS Attacks in 1Q 2016, Says Akamai

The first quarter of 2016 saw a record for the number of DDoS attacks, more than doubling when compared with the previous year quarter of 2015, Akamai says.  

The  increase was largely driven by repeat attacks on customers rather than a broadening of the number of targets. In the first quarter, targets were attacked an average of 29 times each.

One customer was attacked about three times per day, Akamai says.

More than half of the attacks (55 percent) targeted gaming companies, with another 25 percent targeting the software & technology industry.

Web application attacks increased nearly 26 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2015.

As in past quarters, the retail sector remained the most popular attack target, targeted in 43 percent of the attacks.

source: Akamai

source: Akamai

Can Telcos Succeed at Content?

AT&T reportedly is going to launch a new video subscription service targeting viewers interested in anime, video games, niche action sports and other niche content, while Verizon is bidding to buy Yahoo, adding to its content assets anchored by AOL, and launching the Go90 mobile video service.

Some will be be skeptical. The traditional argument is that content is not a telco core competence, which is a valid concern. But content was not a core competence of cable TV operators, either, and they long ago became owners of content businesses.

Nor was linear video subscription a “core competence,” but telcos have successfully entered that business.

Also, as we now see commonly within the Internet ecosystem, firms routinely enter segments of the value chain. That is especially the case for app providers.

Google, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, Microsoft and Apple are among the firms that moved into ecosystem adjacencies, manufacturing consumer devices, fostering the creation of content and now creating whole access platforms, while fostering new network infrastructure architectures and leading open source, lower-cost network equipment and software approaches.

Such movements into adjacencies are not new even in the telecom business, though such moves in the past rarely have been terribly successful. Many telcos have tried to enter various parts of the computing business, without success, in the past.

In fact, AT&T even owned the largest U.S. cable TV business, before selling those assets to Comcast as part of a deleveraging move. More recently, leading telcos have tried to create roles for themselves in content as well, again without success.

In 2002 the former BellSouth was licensing content from firms such as Disney to create programming assets and services using the then-prominent “portal” strategy.

One might argue there is room for more optimism now. For starters, firms learn from experience, including from what has not worked in the past. It now is quite doubtful whether the traditional “not invented here” syndrome is as big a problem as in the past.

Large service providers arguably are more willing to admit they do not know how to create or operate new assets, and therefore hopefully are more able to allow those business units to succeed.

Still, the outcome is open to some question, in some quarters. Perhaps the template is set by the U.S. cable TV industry, which primarily makes its money from access operations, but now also makes significant revenue by its ownership of content firms.

The overall approach is to “own some of the content and apps you deliver.” If telcos have learned the lessons, they might be able to follow the cable TV model.

Whether telco managements have learned from their prior mistakes, including what many would say was excessive interference with business unit independence, is the issue.

What cable TV executives have managed to do is generally allow content firms to be good at creating content, and profiting from the revenue upside. Telcos will have to learn to operate in the same way.

M2M Fastest-Growing Connected Device Category

Machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will be the fastest-growing category of connected devices, growing nearly 2.5- fold during the forecast period, at 20‑percent CAGR, to 12.2 billion connections by 2020, Cisco now predicts.

Machine-to-machine connections generally are considered a major subset within the broader Internet of Things category. Where M2M generally refers to machines communicating with machines, IoT includes a wider range of personal devices used by people, such as smartwatches, fitness monitors or perhaps medical monitors.

Global Devices and Connections Growth, source: Cisco

By 2020, machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will be 46 percent of total connected devices and Internet access accounts, Cisco now forecasts.

That total includes devices such as smart meters, video surveillance, healthcare monitoring, transportation, and package or asset tracking.

Globally, M2M connections will grow nearly 2.5-fold, from 4.9 billion in 2015 to 12.2 billion by 2020.  

For many, that is almost a secondary matter. The bigger question is which markets will grow fastest, and reach mass market status, soonest.

Connected home applications, such as home automation, home security and video surveillance, connected white goods, and tracking applications, will represent 47 percent, or nearly half, of the total M2M connections by 2020, Cisco predicts.

Connected healthcare, with applications such as health monitors, medicine dispensers, first-responder connectivity, and telemedicine, will be the fastest-growing industry segment, at 49-percent CAGR.

Connected car applications will have the second-fastest growth, at 37-percent CAGR.

Global M2M Segment Growth, source: Cisco

Global M2M Connections Growth, source: Cisco

Though many M2M applications will require connections of modest bandwidth, video will drive traffic volume, as is the case in the smartphone and consumer Internet spaces.

Although the number of connections is growing threefold, global M2M IP traffic will grow sixfold to 2020.

Video applications such as telemedicine and smart car navigation systems are prime examples.

Mobile, Wireless Will Drive 66% of IP Traffic by 2020

Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for 66 percent of total IP traffic by 2020, says Cisco.

In 2015, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 52 percent.

Also, by 2020, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps in 2015. In other words, typical global fixed network speeds will double in five years. Some providers (most notably Comcast), in some markets, have been able to double speeds about every two years, since the dial-up era began.

The point is that creating more restrictions on suppliers, rather than removing barriers, in such a fast-changing market continues to strike some as unhelpful.

And though mobile Internet access is not the only platform people will use, mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 53 percent between 2015 and 2020.

By way of comparison, global mobile data traffic will grow three times as fast as fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020. On the other hand, fixed networks will continue to represent most of the transferred bits.

Global mobile data traffic was five percent of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 16 percent of total IP traffic by 2020.

IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by the Asia Pacific region.

Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41 percent between 2015 and 2020, while IP traffic in Asia Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 22 percent.

IP traffic in North America will grow at a CAGR of 19 percent, while IP traffic in Western Europe will grow at a CAGR of 20 percent.

IP traffic in Latin America will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent, while IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will grow at a CAGR of 27 percent.

Exabytes per Year, 2020
	Consumer	Business	Total
Internet	1,288	281	1,569
Managed IP	345	52	397
Mobile data	313	54	367
Total	1,947	386	2,332

Can Regulators Impose Universal Service Obligations When There is No Dominant Service Provider?

Even before passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, “non-dominant” access providers had been using their rights to “cherry pick” where they build communications facilities for some time.

First “alternate access” providers got into business to provide high-bandwidth connections for business district enterprises and their designated long distance providers.  

After passage of the Telecommunications Act, competitive local exchange carriers used a combination of leased and owned facilities to provide voice and data services to business customers.

Then Google Fiber convinced city regulators that allowing Google Fiber to build gigabit access facilities neighborhood by neighborhood, and only where there was demand.

That might well be one reason why Verizon suddenly reversed course and decided to build FiOS in at least some neighborhoods in Boston, where it previously had held off from doing so.

Basically, “cherry picking” (selecting to serve only some customer locations) became lawful in an ever-widening number of cases. That new flexibility comes on top of the typical “ubiquitous build” required for the incumbent telcos and cable TV companies.

Eventually, harder questions will have to asked about how the social function of “universal service” is satisfied, when there is no dominant provider with monopoly profits to “tax” for such purposes. We already have taken a half step away from the notion. ISPs and competitive local exchange carriers other than the former incumbent telephone operator have no universal service obligations.

But what happens when the former incumbents are clearly not dominant, because they have lost so much market share?

Assuming some form of universal service requirement will be imposed, in some way, on service providers, the issue is how to apportion the cost among a range of providers, none of which truly is “dominant.”

It is not hard to imagine markets where three fixed networks and three mobile networks all provide high speed access, and eventually all six networks can offer gigabit service over at least significant portions of their coverage areas, and none is “dominant.”

Collecting the tax is not difficult. We already tax telecom bills. We already disburse funds, in rural areas. In urban areas, there has not traditionally been an issue. Eventually, there will be.

Sri Lanka Launches Smart City Project

Sri Lanka's central hill capital of Kandy will be developed as the first smart city on the island, Sri Lanka Minister of Town Planning and Water Resources Rauf Hakeem said.

Generally speaking a smart city could include intelligent management and monitoring of water, electrical systems and sanitation systems; public transportation or housing automation. Other smart city efforts focus on controlling or monitoring air pollution, street light system or promoting home automation systems.

source: Lamudi

Siemens also will be working on the smart cities project. That might include use of Siemens systems for smart power grids or energy-efficient buildings.

The Korean government signed a memorandum of understanding with Sri Lanka to participate in the planned $63.2 billion smart city development project.

Under the terms of the agreement, the Korean government plans to share its expertise in several issues including smart water management, intelligent transport systems and smart home systems such as home automation and digital parking systems.

The project is part of Sri Lanka’s plan to develop nine new towns in Colombo and its adjacent areas by 2030.

The plan is to develop nine new cities including one near an airport and other cities specialized in science, industries, tourism and logistics.

In Rural Asia, Internet Access Has to Be Marketed; It Does Not Sell Itself

source: Brookings

In both developed and emerging economies, people remain digitally unconnected for a variety of reasons.

In many cases, access networks literally are not present. In other cases, local-language services and content are unavailable.

Some potential users have poor computer skills or disabilities such as blindness.

In other cases, potential users simply do not understand the benefits, said Jay Chen, Huawei India CEO.

Also, Internet access “does not sell itself.” It “must be marketed.”

“There is an old saying about life insurance: that it isn’t bought, it’s sold, meaning few people want the product unless someone explicitly spells out its benefits,” said Chen. “Connectivity is like that with some populations.”

But connectivity, though necessary, is not sufficient to drive extensive adoption. “Huawei’s research also shows that the world’s most digitally connected countries aim to enhance user experience and stimulate demand, rather than focusing exclusively on providing cheaper connections,” said Chen.

Others note that digital illiteracy (people do not know how to use smartphones, computers), language barriers, literacy, taxes, fees, access prices and lack of perceived relevant content are barriers to wider use of the Internet, even if access facilities are not the issue.

That is another way of noting something very important about the Internet ecosystem. Access is necessary. But the reason access to the Internet is necessary is that people want to do things with apps, and use services.

And controversial though the practice remains, zero rating does work. In a number of countries, zero rating services have enabled people to get access to the Internet who otherwise had no access, a study by Brookings has found.

Globe found zero rating doubled Internet users and grew Globe Internet access customer base 25 percent.

In Paraguay, “the number of people using the internet by 50 percent over the course of the partnership and [an] increase [in the] daily data usage by more than 50 percent,” after zero rating of Internet Basics was introduced.

The number of Facebook users rose 154 percent in Nigeria, 85 percent in Ghana, and 50 percent in Kenya after Internet Basics was introduced.

For the continent of Africa as a whole, there was a reported 114 percent increase in Facebook users after the launch of zero rating , Brookings says.