Smartphones Now are Content Consumption Devices

Though smartphones are best described as multi-function devices, among the key activities smartphones support is content consumption.

According to comScore, about 67 percent of all the time consumers spend with digital apps and services is on a smartphone, compared to about 33 percent of such time spent on PCs.

Smartphones also are the primary way most consumers interact with web apps and services as well.

Though much of that time is spent with mobile apps of various types, smartphones also will eventually emerge as a primary platform for video entertainment consumption as well.

source: comScore

source: comScore

source: comScore

AT&T Tests 39-GHz Fixed Wireless

AT&T has demonstrated use of a 39-GHz Nokia platform to deliver DirecTV Now streaming content over a fixed wireless connection. The test of the Nokia “AirScale” radio access platform took place at the AT&T Labs facility in Middletown, New Jersey. Though it is testing both 28-GHz and 39-GHz signal performance, AT&T now believes 39-GHz frequencies will be plentiful as an underpinning for gigabit internet access and video delivery.

The tests of pre-5G platforms in fixed modes is important for business model reasons, even if some do not believe fixed wireless will be so important for 5G revenues and apps. In fact, 5G fixed wireless might be quite significant.

Both AT&T and Verizon are testing use of pre-5G for fixed wireless purposes, important as a way for extending gigabit services without deploying new fiber-to-home infrastructure. With U.S. cable operators extending gigabit access to virtually every location over the next several years, fixed wireless might allow Verizon, AT&T and others to match such deployments faster, and at lower cost, than building brand-new fiber-to-home plant.

Also, since fixed wireless will build off of the network deployed to support mobile access, both AT&T and Verizon might find they can extend their fixed network footprint nearly nationwide, something neither has done so far.

Verizon will launch commercial pre-5G service for some customers in 11 markets throughout the United States, in the first half of 2017, in Ann Arbor, Atlanta, Bernardsville (NJ), Brockton (MA ), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Sacramento, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

The services will provide fixed wireless gigabit internet access service, not pre-5G mobile service, and seem to be targeted at selected lead customers as well, perhaps several thousand or so sites, including homes and businesses.

Some will take issue with the “pre-5G” platform, or perhaps the immediate focus on fixed wireless. Aside from the fact that supplying fixed wireless is something Verizon can do today, rather than waiting for the full standards to be ratified, fixed wireless also is one of the new use cases and revenue drivers for early 5G, many believe.

"Ericsson's partnership with Verizon in rolling out 5G customer trials is accelerating the global 5G ecosystem," said "These end-to-end solutions are a key step for preparing Verizon's network for commercial deployment with different 5G scenarios and use cases," said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson North America region head.

It matters, and matters perhaps significantly, if fixed wireless piggybacking on the 5G mobile infrastructure also can support widespread and affordable gigabit access services. Depending on how well the initial business case works, Verizon might well be able to dramatically extend its fixed network footprint nationwide, from its northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint.

That would represent a major new opportunity for Verizon, which has a relatively-limited fixed network geography.

Verizon to Launch Pre-5G Service in 11 Cities in 2017, Focusing on Fixed Wireless

Verizon will launch commercial pre-5G service for some customers in 11 markets throughout the United States, in the first half of 2017, in Ann Arbor, Atlanta, Bernardsville (NJ), Brockton (MA ), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Sacramento, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

The services will provide fixed wireless gigabit internet access service, not pre-5G mobile service, and seem to be targeted at selected lead customers as well, perhaps several thousand or so sites, including homes and businesses.

Some will take issue with the “pre-5G” platform, or perhaps the immediate focus on fixed wireless. Aside from the fact that supplying fixed wireless is something Verizon can do today, rather than waiting for the full standards to be ratified, fixed wireless also is one of the new use cases and revenue drivers for early 5G, many believe.

"Ericsson's partnership with Verizon in rolling out 5G customer trials is accelerating the global 5G ecosystem," said "These end-to-end solutions are a key step for preparing Verizon's network for commercial deployment with different 5G scenarios and use cases," said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson North America region head.

It matters, and matters perhaps significantly, if fixed wireless piggybacking on the 5G mobile infrastructure also can support widespread and affordable gigabit access services. Depending on how well the initial business case works, Verizon might well be able to dramatically extend its fixed network footprint nationwide, from its northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint.

That would represent a major new opportunity for Verizon, which has a relatively-limited fixed network geography.

How Artificial Intelligence Will Show Up in Mobile Apps

It sometimes is hard to envision how artificial intelligence will affect the applications and access  businesses. Voice interactions are probably the best present examples (Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple’s Siri), but pervasive (context-aware) apps are going to develop in the future.

Pervasive apps (usually mobile apps) adapt to their external environments, using geolocalization, phone sensors, externals sensors, surrounding data (places databases) to provide a highly-personalized user experience. Over time, machine learning (artificial intelligence) will enhance the ability to sift through huge amounts of data to personalize and contextualize at levels not presently possible.

At the same time, that will mean less need for active user actions to pull up and use data. That means less filling out of forms, for example, as apps will be able to predict what the user wants and act on the user’s behalf to provide answers and initiate actions.

A related and perhaps interim step is the use of "chat" platforms allowing organizations to get information, answer questions and transact with users and customers through messaging or virtual personal attendants (voice interfaces). That will likely also extend to smartphone communications with internet of things sensors and devices.

Gartner predicts that by 2018, 25 percent of new mobile apps will communicate with Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

Most IoT devices that talk to smartphones do so via an app or the browser, at least through 2018, according to Gartner researchers. But artificial intelligence could change all that.

"We are witnessing the beginning of the post-app era based on the evidence that users are starting to use fewer apps actively on their smartphones," according to Jessica Ekholm, research director at Gartner. "At the end of 2016, only 33 percent of survey respondents used six to 10 apps a month, which is down 6.2 percent from a year ago."

Another interim step is the growing use of voice interfaces.

A Gartner mobile apps survey found 35 percent of respondents using virtual personal assistants (VPAs) in 2016, up four percentage points from 2015. Some 71 percent of respondents used messaging apps, a three point increase in 2016.

Type of Apps	2015 Survey Respondents (%)	2016 Survey Respondents (%)
Social Media	85	83
Video	73	71
Maps	74	71
Messaging	68	71
Shopping	56	60
Personal Assistant	31	35

source: Gartner

New Affordability Target for Global Internet: 1GB per User at 2% of Monthly Income

More than four billion people remain offline, and low- and middle-income countries are on track to meet the 2020 goal of universal internet access 20 years behind schedule, according to the Alliance for Affordable Internet. Cost is one big problem, the group argues.

In Africa, one gigabyte of prepaid mobile data costs the average resident nearly 18 percent of their monthly income, according to a Alliance for Affordable Internet.

For years, internet access has been considered to be “affordable” if 500 megabytes (MB) of data can be bought for less than five percent of average monthly incomes, the group notes. Of course, over time, all usage rules must be revised upwards.

So A4AA now recommends a standard of 1GB as a minimum monthly allocation. Also, prices should be at a level of two percent or less of average monthly income.

A4AA research has shown that when prices drop to this point, more income groups, often including the bottom 20 percent, can afford to connect.

So the group’s new target is 1 for 2, 1GB of data for no more than two percent of income. Unfortunately, of the 58 countries covered in this year’s Affordability Report, just 19 have met this “1 for 2” target.

The group recommends countries take several actions:

• Public access, such as for schools and local centres, public WiFi, and community networks
• Foster competition
• Release more spectrum
• Promote infrastructure and resource sharing
• Fund and deploy universal service and access funds
• Plan and implement those plans

What Impact from U.S. Mobile Marketing War?

Nobody can yet  be certain what impact the apparently-escalating mobile marketing wars might have on industry revenue and profits, other than to speculate that the impact will likely will fall most on Verizon, AT&T and Sprint, while T-Mobile US might benefit.

In the Indian mobile market, embroiled in a fierce marketing war of its own, industry revenues might plummet. At the very least, slower revenue growth now is expected. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the legacy carriers might all report revenue declines. Several of the market leaders already have reported revenue declines.

So far, some expect profit margins at Verizon to suffer, but possibly less so in the revenue area, at least in part because of the Yahoo acquisition.

It probably is not surprising that there also is disagreement about the potential impact of AT&T’s new unlimited usage plan on its revenues, profits and churn rates, as some expect relatively modest  changes, while others think AT&T is more exposed to revenue hits.

That, it might be argued, is because Verizon and AT&T now suffer from greater market pressures

than had been the case over the recent years, and that most of the deterioration has happened suddenly, over just a few months early in 2017, with T-Mobile US clearly separated from the other three leading carriers (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint).

Much could depend on how long the present marketing war continues, and what additional form it might take.

source: Brand Index

Does Internet Cause Growth? Maybe Not

O2 in the United Kingdom now predicts that 5G will have more economic impact than optical-fiber-based fixed internet access by 2026. In addition to £7 billion (US$8.7 billion) of direct economic value through businesses using 5G, 5G is expected to indirectly boost the nation’s productivity by an extra £3 billion (US$3.7 billion) a year, the study by independent research consultancy Development Economics suggests.

The study predicts the combined value of 4G and 5G connectivity will add £18.5 billion to the economy in less than a decade, compared to just £17.5 billion for broadband overall.

Of course, similar claims are made about economic impact of fiber to home as well, by numerous studies. Among the more-aggressive estimates, gigabit internet access, it is claimed, lifts gross domestic product by more than one percent. Most studies claim far less impact, though, mostly in the 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent increase in GDP growth.

Some studies suggest economic impact is quite limited.  

There are many challenges when attempting to derive such results. Methodologically, it never is entirely clear that internet access drives economic growth, or that economic growth drives broadband demand, for example. It might be the other way around.

Demand for gigabit access might be highest in affluent neighborhoods, so that gigabit access actually has nothing to do with creating economic activity, but only reflects it. Similar arguments about causality might be made for the relationship between population growth and broadband, or wealth and broadband.

Does population growth “cause” broadband deployment, or reflect it? Does economic growth bring population growth, which brings higher demand for faster broadband, or does broadband deployment lead to population and economic growth?

In other words, does affluence drive demand, or does internet access create affluence? It is nearly impossible to untangle. Nevertheless, policymakers, politicians and others always insist that internet access leads to growth.

Perhaps the relationship is quite a lot more nuanced. Does TV ownership, PC ownership, use of mobile phones, Wi-Fi, use of radios, refrigerators, stoves or autos cause higher economic growth, or merely reflect growth. Most of those instances likely suggest growth leads to income, which leads to  appliance usage.

It is not so clear that internet access actually is different.

source: O2