Walled Gardens, Open Range

Today, more than 80 percent of all mobile search and content interaction in the U.S. mobile market takes place "on deck" (within a handset application) as opposed to "off deck" (within the mobile Web or WAP environment). Outside the U.S. market--in Europe, for example--about 80 percent of all mobile search and content interaction occurs "off deck" on the open Web.

Mobile providers, of course, are anxious to snag as much as the anticipated revenue growth in mobile advertising for themselves, and the "open" approach favors Google, among others. One would think there's ultimately room for walled garden and open approaches, much as there is room for walled garden linear video and on-demand programming, as well as "open" Web-delivered services as well.

Just about everybody in "big media" worries about Google and it appears wireless carriers are in that camp. Heck, just about all carriers are probably in that camp. No carrier wants to be a "dumb pipe" and that means insertion into the ad business value chain. That said, over the long term, it is highly unlikely, if not impossible, for any walled garden, no matter how rich in features and content, to replicate the richness of the whole Web, and the growing richness of the mobile Web. This is not going to be a war delivering total victory to either "walled garden" or "open Web" partisans. There's simply too much content, too many providers and no ability to lock it all up.

The only thing we can say with any certainty is that mobile content and the advertising that rides on it are going to get big.