Big Ditch or Small Puddle?

One's attitude towards any access net choice depends in large part on what one thinks one faces. If one believes that the path to the future is largely a matter of small steps, then an incremental approach to access bandwidth makes sense. If, on the other hand, one anticipates disruption, then a bolder choice might be better. Yes, the risk is magnified when a discontinuous access choice is made. But there is great risk if one believes one is going to have to jump a big ditch as well. If you are going to make it, you need to get a good running start and then stake everything on making the leap in a single move.

That's something of the background in all cable or telco considerations about bandwidth upgrades, compounded by the fact that mobile access has to be part of the solution. The point is, jumping a big ditch might require a bolder investment in advance of the leap. If you don't think a leap is required, incrementalism might work. Either way, one bets the business, though, so neither decision is without huge risk.

It is clear that the addressable revenue buckets are bigger than they used to be, there's more competition than there used to be, and markets are less predictable than ever. So the most flexible network has an advantage.

And networks wear out, no less than shoes, clothing or tires. They must be replaced periodically in any case, and every network encounters natural break points, where an incremental upgrade in performance is not possible. The issue is where that point now lies.