Apple Launches iPad: What Don't We Know?

So this is the day we found out, for sure, that Apple is launching a tablet device called the iPad.

Nobody knows how big a market it might create. And that's probably the key: Apple likely intends to create a new market, not simply be " a better Kindle" or a "larger-screen iPod." 

There's no way of telling, yet, what will happen. Apple has launched products before that did not gain mass acceptance, though its iPod and iPhone launches have been revolutionary. The difference this time might be that the iPod basically took a huge existing human behavior ("listen to music" or "voice" and "using the Web") and changed the distribution or the experience. 

It is less clear which major human activity the new tablet will reshape. "TV" is one possibility. "Reading" is another. Down the road, the biggest potential innovation is a way to blend text, full-motion video, music and search in new ways. But that would take some time. Longer term, there may be a new "mobile media player" opportunity. 

Near term, a tablet does not seem to offer as clear a path to reshaping a major human activity as the iPod did for music or the iPhone did for mobile phones and mobile Internet. That might simply be my own lack of imagination. But so far, "mobile TV" hasn't proven as popular as "cheaper consumable media." To a large extent, e-book readers are popular because they offer cheaper ways to buy text content. Mobility plays some part, but it likely is "cheaper ways to read books" that supplies the greatest value.

If that turns out to be true for the tablet, it won't so much be "mobile" consumption as "cheaper prices" for content that prove compelling. Right now, it isn't clear that will be the case. 

The emergence of new multimedia formats is the likely long-term innovation, but that will take some time. At the outset, we'll have to see whether the tablet is able to reshape one or more existing applications and activities, in one or more settings. 

It isn't so clear that people will suddenly change their media consumption patterns because a new mobile display is available. PCs already can provide much of that capability, while the iPod itself and devices such as the Kindle allow mobile or cheaper reading. 

The true revolution lies in the new medium the tablet might enable. But new media requires assembling a complex ecosystem, with lots of stakeholders with much to lose. That suggests the business relationships will take some time. In the early days, the tablet likely will have to succeed based on its ability to do a superior job of satisfying some existing behavior and need.