Friday, September 7, 2012

How Do You Get to Nearly100% Broadband Adoption?


If you think about the matter only casually, it is obvious that people have no use for connectivity services for devices they don't own and use. Video entertainment subscriptions have not historically made any sense for people who do not own TVs. 

Likewise, buying broadband access has not historically made any sense for people who do not own computers. 

But all that is changing. These days, it can make sense to buy broadband access to support connected game players. In some cases, it can make sense to buy broadband to support Internet-connected TVs or Roku style boxes.

Increasingly, it also makes sense to consider the value of a fixed network broadband connection to offload smart phone traffic from a mobile network, or to support new devices such as tablets. 

Someday, it likely will make sense to buy a broadband access connection to view a substantial amount of entertainment television as well. 

The point is that making broadband available to people does not automatically assure adoption. In past years, there sometimes has been a tendency to conflate "availability" (can I buy it?)  and "adoption (did I buy it?)." 

In the U.S. market, we have gotten about as far we can get, in terms of adoption, based on the historic adoption drivers, namely computers that need Internet access. Leichtman Research Group says nearly 90 percent of U.S. households that use a laptop or desktop computer at home also subscribe to a broadband Internet service. 

Just five years ago, 65 percent of households with a computer also subscribed to a broadband service. You might argue that the growth to 90-percent adoption shows a change in the way computers are used. Where PCs once might  be useful in a non-connected usage mode, these days a PC is most valuable and useful when connected to the Internet. 

The rapid growth of tablet usage will represent another part of the change, namely that much of the value people derive from the use of computing devices and the Internet now revolves around content consumption. 

Also, over time, use of fixed networks to support tablet and smart phone connections will become more important as well. 

And all of those subsidiary device use cases are what will eventually drive fixed network broadband adoption above 90 percent, reaching perhaps 98 percent of households. 

Leichtman Research Group research also found that higher-income households are much more likely than lower income households to use computers at home, and to subscribe to residential broadband services, as you might expect. 

Some 91 percent of all households with annual incomes over $50,000 subscribe to a broadband service at home, compared to 68 percent of households with incomes of $30,000, $50,000, and 47 percent of households with incomes under $30,000

Some 41 percent of households with annual incomes under $30,000 do not have use computer at home, compared to three percent  of households with incomes over $50,000. 

The one caveat is that wireless broadband might be the way virtually every household is connected to the Internet. Already, a significant percentage of users find mobile broadband access and a smart phone satisfies enough of a person's Internet requirements to make mobile a practical alternative to buying fixed network broadband access. 

So the answer to the question of how to drive broadband adoption to virtually 100 percent of households is to assume a range of devices will provide the driver, not just PCs. 


Annual Household IncomeUse a Computer at HomeInternet at HomeBroadband at Home
Under $30,00059%52%47%
$30,000-$50,00084%78%68%
Over $50,00097%97%91%

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