Two Ways Predictions Go Wrong

It's hard to forecast the future. Not only do we tend to view the future through the lens of the present, we more frequently get the timing wrong. Perhaps the more common forecasting error is of timing, not direction. 

Many developments which occur, generally as expected, take a decade or more to arrive in any significant way. That might not be a crucial fact for most people and companies, but it is decisively determinant for investors in technology start ups. 

Being right about the trend doesn't help if one is wrong about the timing.