Will the Digital Divide Always Exist? Will it Matter?

To get funding, any advocacy group must first demonstrate that a problem exists. To keep getting funds, an entity has to insist no progress is being made, necessitating continued funding. And if the original problem actually is solved, the entity has to find some new problem that needs to be solved. 

All that applies to “broadband access,” no less than any other undertaking we might consider worthwhile. Despite much data indicating that internet access (mobile and fixed) is getting substantially better and has held up very well as nationwide stay-at-home policies were put into place because of the Covid pandemic, not every community has been so fortunate. 

Oxnard, Calif., for example, was one such place, seeing a dip in downstream speeds of about 20 percent from mid-March to mid-April, although performance now is moving back up post-mid-April, according to BroadbandNow, using test data from M-Lab. 

The community where I live experienced a 32 percent dip in downstream speed during the same period. Those are the stats. 

What I can say in my own case is that the dip in top speed happened on a connection that normally runs (depending on hour of the weekday) between 130 Mbps and 200 Mbps. The dip was brief, lasting perhaps a week, and did not cause any actual degradation of user experience.

The point is that statistics are one thing; user experience can be quite another matter. The median pre-Covid speed was described as between 75 Mbps and 93 Mbps (half faster, half slower). 

Multi-user households buying lower-speed services might have experienced issues. That was not my own experience, but differences, gaps and disparities exist, and might continue to exist in the future, for all sorts of reasons. 

Consumers make choices. They might decide to buy more-affordable services that can be stressed in multi-user households. Some, in single-user households, might decide to rely on mobile access only. None of that is necessarily a failure of policy, but an expression of consumer choices, or demand. 

Supply is an issue, though. In many communities, though served by gigabit cable networks, telcos still sell digital subscriber line services that are demonstrably slower. 

Still, one analysis by Fastly suggests that even the most-challenged digital subscriber line networks in the United States held up under the new at-home load. Cable TV networks also have held up well.

source: Fastly

According to Ookla, U.S. internet access speeds  on fixed networks dipped about four percent during the pandemic. Mobile speeds actually improved by one percent. 

Most of you are familiar with speed tests. Most of you also know you test your connections primarily when they seem “slow.” Almost nobody bothers to test when the networks are humming along. 

And M-Lab tests have increased significantly during the stay-at-home policies, suggesting customers are aware of greater congestion or slower experienced speeds. 

That would hardly be surprising, as all studies show at-home internet access data volume has grown 40 percent or so as people have been forced to work and learn at home. 

A study by Fastly also indicates speed and income are related. That should not be surprising. Lots of consumer behaviors and spending patterns are correlated with income, education, wealth and geography. Up to 20 percent of U.S. consumers also say they rely on mobile internet access, and do not buy fixed network access. Rural speeds tend to be slower than urban speeds. Rural use of the internet, PC ownership and income also seem to be lower than in urban areas. 

The point is that there always will be room to argue that a digital divide continues to exist, even if it is narrowing and has been narrowing for a couple of decades. And statistics often too-casually dismiss the many nuances as speeds are improving fast. 

But differences might always exist.  Since networks are expensive, the last two percent of locations will always be an economic issue. We might solve the basic speed issue, improving delivery from 10 Mbps to 25 Mbps to some higher figure. But urban networks will keep improving as well, so a gap might always exist.