"New Normal" Might Well Look Pretty Much Like the Old Normal

This ABI Research forecast showing how company analysts have revised projections of future activity because of the Covid-19 pandemic might also suggest why many predictions of a “new normal” might turn out to be mostly ephemeral. That is not the conventional wisdom, but there are precedents for “less change than might have been supposed.”

source: ABI Research

To be sure, the pandemic might accelerate any pre-existing trends. What already was in motion might “go faster” because of pandemic responses. That is why some observers say internet usage experienced a year’s worth of change in a couple of months when people were forced to work from home and stay home from school. 

It is common to hear arguments that many or most workers will continue to work from home, post pandemic, and not return to in-office work. Many argue business travel will never return to past levels. Some might argue that will last until lots of firms start losing market share to competitors who are getting face to face with prospects. 

Beyond that, there are other events few who make the “nothing will be the same” arguments. They assume there is no vaccine, or that most people will refuse to vaccinate. They tacitly seem to assume some new version of virus keeps recurring, so that no country is ever fully “over” the pandemic. 

But people and firms will make different decisions if they no longer must worry about social distancing, masks and other protective measures. A non-scientific poll on Blind, for example, shows 66 percent of respondents reporting work from home is harming their mental health. Though impressionistic, that suggests people will want to return to normal work settings, once safety is no longer an issue. 

Productivity might also be an issue, longer term, if work from home spreads widely. 

Also, most businesses probably cannot sustain themselves with permanent social distancing. Profit margins are too thin to allow restaurants to operate at 25-percent capacity; airlines to block middle seats forever; elevators to restrict riders to only a few at a time.