Monday, July 13, 2020

Some Competitive Markets Make FTTH a Tough Business Model

Competitive markets make market share a key issue. Consider areas where firms such as Verizon, AT&T or CenturyLink have fiber to home networks. You might consider that a no-brainer, in terms of share. Not so. 


Even with years of marketing, Verizon’s FiOS fiber to home network seems to get sustained share of only about 30 percent. Across a base of 16 million homes, some note that Verizon seems essentially stuck at about that level of adoption.


AT&T has about 14 million to 15 million homes able to buy FTTH service. But AT&T seems relatively stable at about 30 percent share. 


CenturyLink fares worse, with FTTH take rates at about 11 percent to 17 percent. Of course, the U.S. market is different in that cable TV operators have about two thirds market share in consumer markets, using hybrid fiber coax networks routinely making gigabit per second service available. 


That does not mean most cable TV internet access customers buy service at gigabit speeds, only that they generally can. In such a market the business case for additional FTTH is very difficult, since any service provider has to expect stranded assets of perhaps 70 percent to 80 percent of locations passed.


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