Saturday, March 12, 2022

5G Will Not Drive the Next Great Wave of Innovation; Neither Will the Internet

These days it is hard to clearly delineate where 5G from edge computing begins and ends. The same thing might be said of 5G and the internet of things; or IoT and artificial intelligence or  machine learning; or 5G and AI


 

source: IET 


All that matters because it will be hard to “prove” whether it is 5G, edge computing, AI or IoT that has had some benefit for consumers, producers, firms or society. In many cases, it is the interworking of several technologies and services that create the benefit.  



source: Medium 


In more subtle ways we can argue that metaverse and blockchain--though perhaps independent variables, also will provide value for 5G, edge computing, AI and IoT that is hard to separate. 


It is the complex of technologies, not any single technology, that drives the wave of innovation. 


source: Medium 


The key takeaway is that we might now be in a transition of waves, where the growth drivers shift. Some proponents of 5G might argue that is the key innovation. Those in the computing industry will say it is cloud and edge computing. 


Others will point elsewhere, to widely-applied artificial intelligence. 


source: Visual Capitalist 


A key observation is that it is the complex of technologies--not a single driver--that underpins an innovation cycle. And, as always, we might be mistaken about the complex of technologies that fuel the next wave. 


Some of us have seen “robotics” on the “next wave” list for almost 50 years, and it has arguably not happened. So we might be wrong about the actual drivers of the next wave. 

source: The Geography of Transport Systems 


By definition, it will not be 5G, as we replace mobile networks every decade or so. Nor is the “internet” per se likely to continue as a driver.


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