Smartphones Do Not Drive Mobile Subscriptions Anymore

It is unquestioned wisdom in the mobile industry that the correlation between smartphone sales growth and mobile subscription growth is positive. But that correlation is not necessarily “causation.” For example, mobile subscriptions grew at high rates before smartphones were available. 

Once smartphone adoption reaches saturation levels, sales are mostly for replacement of older devices, and do not directly influence subscription figures overall, though such replacement sales are, to some extent, correlated with choosing different mobile service suppliers. 

In 2023, perhaps 75 percent to 80 percent of smartphone sales are of the “replace an existing smartphone” type. Counterpoint Research estimates 75 percent of smartphone sales are replacements of existing devices, while IDC estimates as much as 80 percent of such sales are for replacement. 

And although not all new mobile subscriptions use smartphones, most new devices sold are in this category. According to IDC, about 98 percent of new devices sold are smartphones. 

Year	Smartphone sales growth (%)	Mobile subscription growth (%)
2000	N/A	19.8%
2001	N/A	13.2%
2002	N/A	11.3%
2003	N/A	9.7%
2004	80.9%	10.2%
2005	45.2%	8.7%
2006	27.9%	7.5%
2007	32.6%	6.1%
2008	24.7%	4.6%
2009	-10.6%	2.5%
2010	49.4%	6.3%
2011	39.7%	5.1%
2012	15.9%	3.7%
2013	13.3%	3.2%
2014	12.6%	3%
2015	7.3%	2.8%
2016	4.3%	2.5%
2017	3.2%	2.2%
2018	2.3%	1.9%
2019	1.4%	1.7%
2020	-11.0%	0.7%
2021	9.5%	5.6%
2022	2.5%	3.9%

The point is that although it often is axiomatic that smartphone sales drive mobile subscriptions, that increasingly is not the case.