One question many of us are asking ourselves is where dangers and opportunities are to be found as artificial intelligence is applied to more processes, functions, products and industries. And it might be quite humbling--but accurate--to say that much remains unknown.
And that is simply the way new technology tends to unfold. Many firms were created using core technology developed at Xerox PARC, including 3Com, Adobe and Synoptics. But “the success of some of these departing spinoffs was largely unforeseen, and unforeseeable,” said Henry Chesrough in Open Innovation.
Consider what innovations the internet brought that likely were unexpected by most of us, such as social media; crowdsourcing, the sharing economy or search, as well as many innovations that already were in place, such as open source.
Many other forms of disintermediation, where steps in a value chain were removed, are obvious: e-commerce; education, gaming or user-generated content.
Other unfolding developments, such as virtual reality or cryptocurrency, are less directly-created by the internet, but generally require its use.
And perhaps one of the lessons of innovation is that big breakthroughs happen mostly when innovators try to solve new problems, not fix existing problems.
And right now, virtually everything we see and hear about AI is how it can help fix some existing process. That’s useful, to be sure.
But the big, unexpected new use cases, revenue models and value will happen where we are perhaps least expecting it.
New technology can create entirely new markets and value chains when it is harnessed to meet unmet needs we did not recognize. We did not “know” we needed search or social media. We did not know we needed mobile computing and connectivity devices or personal computing appliances.
AI undoubtedly will, in context, be viewed as an app, a use case, a function or a capability. But in other cases it will be viewed as a platform to support new business business models, industries and types of firms.
We just don’t know--yet--how all that will develop.
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