If AI Emerges as a General-Purpose Technology, Watch for Both Disruption and Creation

Any general-purpose technology might be envisioned as a set of layers of other technologies that build on it. Many could agree that GPTs are characterized by pervasiveness, flexibility, spillover effects and transformative impact. 

So the internet might underpin layers of core infrastructure and industries and businesses built around protocols such as TCP/IP and physical networks and industries (mobile and fixed networks, terrestrial and satellite wireless networks). 

Then there might be layers of roles and businesses supplying web technologies such as HTML, CSS, JavaScript, and related web development tools that enable building websites and web applications.

Networking technology including routers, switches, firewalls would be another layer. 

So would databases, cloud storage, and content delivery networks.

Then there would be many application and service layers for communication (e-mail, instant messaging, video conferencing, and social media platforms) e-commerce and online marketplaces, content and entertainment, social media, video and audio streaming or online gaming. 

Internet of Things businesses built around smart devices, sensors, and connected appliances, as well as many types of business software could be listed.

Some might include artificial intelligence as among the layers built on the internet. But some of us would say AI is a new general purpose technology that will create its own pyramid of technologies, businesses, industries and applications. 

Era	General Purpose Technology	Impact
Pre-Industrial	The Wheel	Revolutionized transportation, agriculture, and warfare. Led to the development of roads, carts, and other wheeled vehicles.
18th Century	The Steam Engine	Powered the Industrial Revolution, driving mechanization and mass production in factories, transportation (trains, ships), and agriculture.
19th Century	Electricity	Transformed daily life with lighting, appliances, communication (telegraph, telephone), and industrial processes.
20th Century	Internal Combustion Engine	Propelled transportation revolutions with automobiles, airplanes, and ships. Changed industries, warfare, and leisure activities.
20th Century	Electronics & Semiconductors	Enabled miniaturization of devices, leading to computers, radio, television, and countless electronic gadgets.
20th Century	The Internet	Connected the world, democratized information access, facilitated communication, and fueled e-commerce, digital services, and the knowledge economy.

And some of those roles or industries might presently be viewed as built on “internet” foundations. 

Intelligent infrastructure such as smart cities, autonomous vehicles, adaptable robotics, “personalized” healthcare, neurotechnology (brain-computer interfaces),  bionic limbs and prosthetics and much “metaverse” style immersive experiences, plus much of virtual and augmented reality, hyper-personalized content creation, AI-powered companions, precision agriculture and other use cases that might today be attributed to the  “internet” GPT might eventually be properly seen as built on AI as a GPT. 

Perhaps analogies can be seen in the Apple iPhone and Google search. Apple did not invent the smartphone or the mobile phone. But it completely reshaped the business, destroying Nokia and BlackBerry in the process as former market leaders. 

Google was not the first search engine, but it destroyed Altavista and other existing search engines in the market. The point is that many existing industries might be fundamentally reshaped if AI emerges as a GPT. 

And as has been the case before, AI might reshape and disrupt existing industries, functions and roles, in addition to spawning entirely-new industries, as all prior GPTs have done.