IP Could Change Conditional Access and Need for Dedicated Decoders

 

Cisco's View of the Video Future

Cisco Releases Annual Global Bandwidth Forecast

Cisco's latest visual networking index shows the expected "up to the right" growth curve. No surprise there.

The growth in traffic will continue to be dominated by video, exceeding 91 percent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014. That statistic simply screams for network management to ensure the quality of video experience.

Social Networking Changing Collaboration at Work

Social networking is starting to change the nature of worker collaboration within companies, new poll conducted by Harris Research suggests. Of workers who use social networking at work, 59 percent say that their usage of social networking has increased over the past year. But only about 17 percent of the 1,000 workers surveyed report using social networking.

The study found the most frequently used application for collaborating with others is email (91 percent), but that what people want from their email is changing. In addition to email, the Harris poll found that other applications being used by respondents to collaborate with others in the workplace include shared spaces (66 percent), voice calls and teleconferencing (66 percent), web conferencing (55 percent), video conferencing (35 percent), instant messaging (34 percent), and social networking (17 percent).

Respondents like the fact that email provides an easily-accessible record of communication and the ability to communicate with many people at once. Users also rank email prominently among various collaboration tools because there is a high level of comfort in using the application to easily communicate with others inside and outside their organizations. However, the poll showed there are many pain points associated with the way most email solutions function today.

While email remains the preferred method of collaboration, many respondents complained they receive too much irrelevant email (40 percent) and that they lack the ability to collaborate in real time (32 percent). End users also dislike the fact that they have very limited storage (25 percent) and that large volumes of email come into their inbox with no organizational structure (21 percent).

Half of those using social networking for work by-pass company restrictions to do so. The study participants who prefer to use social networks indicated they would like to have control over who sees their content as well as be able to share with groups of users using different tools. The respondents also indicated the desire to collaborate in real time without having to open up an additional application.

The Creative Age is Different, Way Different

General Motors isn't Facebook. Heck, it isn't even Cisco or Microsoft. But neither are any of those companies like Facebook. I don't mean "like Facebook" in financial, social or cultural terms. Facebook is unlike other companies in the way that it creates a product. Most companies create products using some combination of internal resources ("employees") and business partners ("suppliers").

Most companies can tell you who "works for the company" and who does not. What is different about Facebook, and Wikipedia, Google and YouTube is that the "product" is produced by all sorts of people, both inside a "company," inside its "partner suppliers," and from "outside the company." What makes Facebook's product different is that "users" must participate to create a better and more useful product.

That might be true for any sizable organization, to some extent. Consumers help shape products when they decide to buy some more than others, and some not at all. Consumers help products evolve when they start to use products in new and unexpected ways.

But Facebook and others with a "social" product cannot develop with passive or secondary input. They require active creation of content, links and networks by participants. Not every product can be produced in this way. But it is a so-far distinctive attribute of products produced in a "post-information age" era.

Some might call the upcoming era the "creative" era, to differentiate it from the information age. Collaboration is a key cultural attribute of firms that create social products. Facebook depends on users, developers to create its product, which is an experience.

fuller discussion

Cisco Announces 322-Terabits per Second Router

To support more bandwidth consumption at the edge of the network, one needs to supply more bandwidth in the core of the network. For that reason, Cisco has announced its new CRS-3 Carrier Routing System (CRS), offering three times the capacity of the Cisco CRS-1 Carrier Routing System, which operates at 92, where the CRS-3 operates at up to 322 Terabits per second.

The device offers more than 12 times the traffic capacity of the nearest competing system, Cisco says.

The Cisco CRS-3 offers operational expense savings and up to 60 percent savings on power consumption compared to competitive platforms, Cisco says.

Why Enterprises Buy Cloud Computing Services

Why are enterprises interested in any sort of cloud computing service? For the same reasons they are interested in just about any other computing or communications tool: they think it will reduce costs and create more value in the information technology investment.

Of course, enterprises don't buy "cloud computing." They buy tools that help them run their businesses.

Email might be an area ripe for a cloud shift, in that regard. It is a necessary function, but a function without compelling strategic advantage.

Typically, necessary but non-strategic functions are the sorts of processes one can think about outsourcing. And it is getting more burdensome to manage email processes, with growing  enterprise regulatory requirements relating to storage of email. The other issue is that email, like most other applications these days, "suffers" from bandwidth creep.

Over time, people are appending larger attachments, for example. Cisco's WebEx Mail service, for example, has full Outlook support. That means users will see no changes, nor will IT departments need to deal with massive training issues and client software updates.

But it isn't the "cloud" that makes the the change interesting. It is the savings in time, labor, money and functionality that will be key. "Cloud computing" as such will be interesting for some enterprises that want to shift capex into opex, that are growing very fast or that are primarily Web based.

For others it might be a way to offload server or computing center chores. But I suspect most users will find they prefer to use a cloud-based application or service because of the value the specific applications represent, because of the consumption or pricing model.

Cisco In, GM Out

Cisco on June 8 will be part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, General Motors will not. It sort of tells you something about what "industrial" now means.

I think Apple was a sentimental favorite for some, but congratulations to Cisco. Perhaps the thinking is that digital "infrastructure" makes more sense at the moment than "applications." One wonders how much longer that distinction will be important.

IP Multicasting Coming?

Not being a "techie," I first became aware of "IP Multicasting" in 2000, when working with some folks developing a streaming media service. As somebody who spent some time in the cable TV business, it made a huge amount of sense. Basically, the idea is that for popular content, say a TV show that millions of people want to watch, one uses multicasting to launch a single stream that all those viewers can watch, rather than millions of discrete streams. Those of you who are network engineers will appreciate the elegance of the way this conserves bandwidth, in the same way that satellites deliver a single stream that millions of viewers can watch. That's the beauty of all multicasting: highly efficient sharing of downstream bandwidth.

Carriers proved resistance to enabling multicasting, however, for all sorts of other reasons, not the least of which was the fear that control over available bandwidth would be lost. But technology journalist Mark Stephens (Robert X. Cringely) argues multicasting is the future of television. Well, at least the future for some sorts of television: the highly-viewed, synchronous sort.

Multicast was built into the structure of the Internet from the very beginning but was generally not turned on because network administrators view it as a resource hog (local storage and resources, not bandwidth, per se).

Cisco long has been a huge supporter of multicast because it requires ever bigger and more powerful routers. That might be true, but multicasting still makes eminent sense as a way to distribute highly-popular video. Sure, there are other sorts of video that have to be unicast because demand is low. But multicasting is quite efficient of bandwidth for highly-popular streams.

Stephens uses a simple example. Say a user wants to see Seinfeld episode 60, and is entitled to do so. That event gets assigned a multicast address.
When the show is made available on a server anywhere on a part of the net that supports multicast, the user receives it. All the routers between here and there look for multicast subscriptions and enable them and the episode is is cached locally.

In order to lower their bandwidth bills, ISPs are trying to take greater control of the way we, their customers, use our "unlimited" bandwidth, says Stephens. But IP multicast offers another tool to do so, and is less bothersome.

Both Comcast and Verizon are rapidly rolling out IP multicast, Stephens notes. The reason is that IP multicast remains a highly-efficient to deliver popular programming, and means most of the linear cable channels. ESPN demands as part of its contracts that much of their programming on MPEG-2-equipped cable systems must delivered at 5 Mbps to 8 Mbps, compared to the 2 Mbps used for most other channels.

Contracts are similiar for premium cable services such as HBO or Showtime.

Internal audience studies at Comcast have shown that 90 percent of the customer base watches 10 percent of the available channels.The problem is that each of use might have a different seven favorites. Also, even if few people actually are watching, cable companies can't turn them off because programming contracts with the studios require carriage.

Multicast solves this problem because it allocates no bandwidth to channels that aren't being watched. It's an interesting business issue: the signals are "carried" but maybe not "broadcast" to consumers who aren't actually "tuned" to the channel.

IP Multicast is an alternative to P2P, in other words.

IBM, Cisco Eat Own Dog Food

Cisco, touting the power of telepresence, really is pushing for use of telepresence inside its own organization. Likewise, as IBM touts the value of Web-based tools for enteprises, it is rolling out Web 2.0 technologies such as blogs, wikis, mashups and virtual reality technologies to help its employees be more productive.

IBM's Metaverse virtual reality software is one of these areas. Apparently some 2,200 IBM staffers are testing ways to collaborate with colleagues in the Metaverse.

Ackerbauer said IBM staffers leverage IBM's internal virtual conferencing application through Web services to have online meetings in 3D.

Skype, Logitech Partner for Video Calling

In 1970, AT&T introduced "Picturephone" service in Pittsburgh. It flopped. In fact, the average person wouldn't normally think to turn to a telephone or cable company to buy or use video-enabled communications. Instead, one might think of WebEx, Cisco, Packet8 or Skype. And options on the mass market front just got better.

Skype and Logitech have partnered to create a High Quality Video experience using Skype 3.6 for Windows and Logitech QuickCam software, version 11.5.

The new capability provides VGA-quality video calls (640-by-480-pixels) at up to 30 frames per second over connections of 384 kbps connection or higher, when using a
High Quality Video-certified Logitech webcam and a PC with a dual-core processor.

Obviously, both end points need the set-up to ensure the best experience. This is a potential experience changer, as it should allow full-screen images with decent quality.

Skype 3.6 for Windows is expected to be available in early November in 28 languages. The Logitech QuickCam software version 11.5 is expected to be available at the same time.

The Logitech QuickCam Pro 9000 and Logitech QuickCam Pro for Notebooks webcams are now available for a suggested retail price of $99.99 in the U.S. and EUR 99.99 in Europe.

The Logitech QuickCam Orbit AF is available now in the U.S. market and Europe for $129.99 and EUR 129.99, respectively.

Comcast Revs Up SME Effort

Comcast is kicking its business services initiative into higher gear. "Our total commercial revenue passed $100 million for the first time in the third quarter," says Steve Burke, Comcast COO. "We have hired and trained 750 business salespeople and trained 1,200 technicians to install and service business customers."

"Each of our 29 operating regions have now introduced Comcast business class as our commercial brand, supporting data, voice and television," he says. It will take some time for Comcast to iron out all the wrinkles, just as it took some time to fine tune the digital voice effort.

Some of you will remember a few stumbles Cisco took when it got into the IP communications business. The point is that as capable as they are, it will take some time before cable shows its ultimate skill. But it will.

Metro Bandwidth Still Worth Investing In: Zayo

Demand for metro bandwidth still is a good reason to create a company focused on layer one and layer two metro access, say the founders of Zayo Bandwidth, a regional provider of fiber-based access and metro transport. Zayo has acquired PPL Telcom, a 4,600 fiber-route-mile network based in Allentown, Penn. serving areas throughout the Northeast, and Memphis Networx, a 200 fiber-route-mile network serving the greater Memphis, Tenn. area.

In addition, Zayo Bandwidth has signed definitive agreements to acquire Indianapolis, Ind.-based Indiana Fiber Works (IFW) and Minneapolis, Minn.-based Onvoy, Inc. which are expected to be finalized in the third and fourth quarters of 2007, respectively. Combined, the four companies represent $125 million of annual revenue and 8,400 route miles of fiber.

Led by industry veterans Dan Caruso and John Scarano, both formerly with ICG Communications and Level 3 Communications, Zayo Bandwidth has secured access to $225 million from leading venture capital firms, including Columbia Capital, M/C Venture Partners, Oak Investment Partners, Battery Ventures and Centennial Ventures.

According to the Telecommunications Industry Association, demand for broadband has driven the highest telecom industry growth since 2000. Overall U.S. telecom industry revenues grew 9.3 percent in 2006, while the worldwide market grew a robust 11.2 percent.

Zayo focuses on private line from DS1 up to OC-192; Ethernet running from 10 Mbps up to 1 Gbps; dedicated Internet access at T1 and above; wavelength services ranging from 2.5 Gbps to 10 Gbps and collocation space.

Global revenue growth for metro access services has grown at about 124 percent annually since 2001, says Cisco Systems.

Voice Mashups Disruptive or Not?

Iotum recently shifted gears and decided to take advantage of Facebook APIs to create a conference call app inside Facebook. Many of you know what Skype has been doing in the area of encouraging third party development around its client. And of course Microsoft has made clear its intention to place communications within the context of every expression of its desktop productivity suite.

Some people would argue this move to voice as an attribute of every application spells the death of traditional "communications as a service." So far, of course, there is no evidence of this, though there is plenty of movement within the service industry. Neither is there any evidence that people communicate less when they have the new tools; the reverse typically being the case.

So far, at any rate, one would have to say that the advent of voice as an application, as an inherent attribute of other experiences and activities, simply is creating incremental revenue opportunities and end user utility. To the extent that it negatively affects the "service" business, providers of services already are transitioning away from reliance on "voice" revenues in any case.

Enterprise phone system providers hope to do the same, and speak only of "unified communications" these days. It isn't the calling, they seem to say; it's the integration. Not an unwise choice given the fact that Microsoft Office Communication Server provides a complete alternative.

But maybe this time around we shouldn't worry so much about disruption. Choice will do nicely. Human beings are starting to have lots more choices, and that's a good thing. Companies will do well providing those choices. It will be enough.

Voice and communications increasingly are available to users as discrete services and integrated applications. This trend isn't going away. But the explosion of choices and richness do not inevitably spell doom, or automatic success, for any contestant. Calling entities "dinosaurs" doesn't hobble them. Nor does "disruption" always succeed. Quite the opposite seems to be true at this point.

BitTorrent Throttled by Comcast

Internet Service Providers don't like BitTorrent because it basically destroys their business model (flat rate access) and stresses the very part of their network most vulnerable to high usage (the upstream). Many ISPs simply limit the available bandwidth for BitTorrent traffic. Cable operators that now seem to include Comcast go a bit further and disupt the "seeding" process that allows BitTorrent peers to act as better upload nodes. In Canada, Cogeco and Rogers Cablesystems also "step on" BitTorrent traffic.

If P2P traffic keeps growing the way Cisco predicts, and if no changes are made in the dominant retail pricing model, throttling of P2P applications will happen on a wider scale. P2P attacks network capacity at its weakest link.

Cisco Predicts Exabyte Networks

Cisco's recent forecast of global IP bandwidth consumption suggests a 37 percent cumulative average growth rate between 2006 and 2011, or about five times the 2006 level. That's aggressive, but you might expect that. You might even have expected the prediction that consumer usage will outstrip business usage, though business dominates at the moment. You wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that video will drive overall global usage.

You wouldn't necessarily be surprised to learn that Cisco forecasts at least 60 percent of all traffic will be commercial video delivered in the form of walled garden services. And a significant percentage of the remaining 40 percent of IP bandwidth will be consumed by IP-based video applications.

The next network, in other words, will be a video network that also carries voice and non-real-time data.

That would be a stunning change from the originally envisioned view of the Internet. But I think we have to recognize at this point that virtually none of the key developments in communications technology have developed as industry insiders, public policy proponents, technologists or entrepreneurs had supposed.

To be sure, all of the diligent work on Session Initiation Protocol will have a significant payoff. But that didn't stop Skype by rocketing past SIP using a proprietary approach.

The Telecommunications Act of 1996 was supposed to lead to an explosion of innovation by dismantling restrictions on "who" could be a provider of Class 5 switch services. Instead, innovation came from the Web. Perhaps despite the Telecom Act, all sorts of innovation has happened.

VoIP was supposed to transform the nature of communications. Instead, mobility, instant messaging and social networks are doing so. One might arguably look to all manner of text communications as the disruptive communications development of the past several decades, not voice.

And then there's electronic numbering and voice peering. Perhaps these approaches still will have some dramatic impact on global voice communications prices and ability to circumvent the "public network." But it's starting to look as though ENUM might be a next generation to provide the signaling system 7 function. That's not to say it is unimportant: only to say it was not what many had intended or expected.

So far, it would seem that the most disruptive impact of the whole basket of new technologies has been to disrupt our ability to predict the future. We've been wrong more than right, as we always are. IP networks are not now, and never will be, as closed as the old public network was. Neither are IP networks going to be "open," any-to-any networks in the old manner, with no intelligence or policies operating in the core of the network.

Lots of things can, and should, be done "at the edge." But increasingly, lots of things cannot. The transition of the global IP network to video also means a shift to real time services (and we aren't even talking about the same process at work for voice and visual collaboration). That spells the end of the completely "dumb network."

Fred Pitts Back in Service with TeleBlend

It took 10 days, but TeleBlend customer Fred Pitts FINALLY is back in service.
"My first try to call home this morning continued with the "fast busy" signal; by midmorning, however, it was working," Pitts says. "So, while disappointed to have been without incoming service for such a length of time, I am thankful today that I am back up. I hope everyone else will be back in service soon as well."

A gracious comment, I'd say. At least some disgruntled SunRocket customers who picked TeleBlend as a replacement say they have churned to other providers such as Packet8 and Vonage.

A harrowing experience, to be sure. Perhaps it is only fair to note, though, that of the 60,000 transitioned customers, nearly all made the flash cut without much apparent disruption. Call it 99 percent. But one percent of 60,000 is still 600 customers, and it will be scant comfort to know that (hypothetically) 54,000 customers had no real issues.

That's the devil with mass market services, though, isn't it? Getting 99 percent of things right still generates thousands of trouble tickets (I'm not suggesting TeleBlend had issues with as many as one percent of its accounts, by the way. Just making the point that a very small failure rate in a mass market application or service can result in huge trouble ticket queues.)

Skype apparently still is having a major outage itself today, and as older posts today note, at&t and Cisco have had issues this month as well. S*** happens even to companies as large and sophisticated as Cisco and at&t.

And Cisco Goes Down, Also...

Cisco's main www.cisco.com page was offline at 11 a.m. Pacific Time on Aug. 8 and stayed offline for more than two and a half hours. It returned at about 1:45 p.m. The outage was an unintended byproduct of routine maintenance.

Microsoft Vs. Cisco

For an unfortunately old telecom sort of guy, it really is something to watch the coming battle Cisco and Microsoft will be waging over voice services. If you've been around long enough, it seems discomforting that the key battles are not to be waged between Nortel and Lucent, or Avaya and Nortel.

In fact, it also is discomfiting that the coming battle won't even really be about voice per se. Instead, everything now hinges on capabilities in the unified communications or collaboration areas. Communications requires dumb pipes of high quality, to be sure. Beyond that, most of the heavy lifting now can be done by the applications.

So in some genuine sense, the whole global telecom business is about dumb pipes. Not completely, but largely.

Still, voice and real time communications remain challenging disciplines, though that generally is under appreciated by most people.

Microsoft probably is going to discover that, as Cisco has.

Microsoft OCS: Here Comes Presence

Microsoft Office Communications Server (OCS) 2007 has recently been released to manufacturing, so expect to hear a lot of noise from Microsoft about presence and voice, as Microsoft will be nudging and cajoling third-party software vendors to integrate presence into their applications. Microsoft also will be rearranging market share in the fragmented space as well (Cisco, Jabber and all the traditional business phone system vendors will be playing, as well as Oracle, for example)

And, oh by the way, the effort shows just how real is the danger of communications service providers becoming "dumb pipe" providers.

Consider a typical customer relationship management (CRM) application. A salesperson might be looking at a customer record, and see a list of all email communications that others on a sales team have had with a given customer. There's a problem noted, and the sales rep wants to make sure it is fixed before placing an outbound call to the customer. That means checking with another internal team member. This then entails:

1. Launching Outlook Address Book.
2. Pointing to Global Address List.
3. Double-clicking a name.
4. Finding the appropriate number.
5. Dialing on the desktop phone.

Using OCS 2007 with presence, the process is:

1. Right-click internal colleague's name directly within the CRM record.
2. Choose "Call this Person" or "Send an Instant Message to this Person."

Aside from access to the global IP network, where is the telco, cable company or other access service provider involved?