Sprint Stands Alone

Now that Verizon Wireless has selected Long Term Evolution as its fourth-generation platform, and if Sprint continues with its WiMAX fourth-generation network platform, prospects for CDMA are dim in the U.S. market.

Of course, there always is the possibility that Sprint might reverse course and abandon WiMAX. But Sprint Nextel at the moment really stands alone in the platform area. It runs the Nextel iDEN network that no other major carrier supports and CDMA-based 3G that Verizon says it will abandon.

It is hard to imagine T-Mobile adopting anything other than LTE, so it appears CDMA is at a deadend in the U.S. market.

Sprint, Clearwire Deal Dead

In a surprise move, Sprint Nextel Corp. and Clearwire Corp. say they are scrapping their agreement to jointly build a nationwide high-speed wireless network based on WiMax technology, after failing to reach agreement on terms of the deal.

The move naturally will increase speculation about the fate of the Xohm WiMAX venture, given Sprint's desperate need to shore up its existing mobile phone business. Obviously, the asset is easier to sell or spin off if Clearwire isn't involved.

Is it not too early to predict that Google strategists now will be taking another look at spectrum options? At the same time, might not once more note that the complexity of running two separate networks, sets of devices and software are part of Sprint's problem?

Other carriers have dealt with such issues by collapsing all services and users onto a single technology platform. Clearly, most of the churn issues are caused by the Nextel base, heavy with small business users. The Nextel iDen network is a-now unusual platform that nobody anywhere else supports, besides.

At one point, the Nextel customer base was prized within the mobile industry for its significantly-higher voice average revenue per user. These days, as revenue growth is coming from new data services, the gap has narrowed almost to insignificance, and surely will vanish.

At one time, Nextel's "push-to-talk" feature was unique, but other providers now are able to mimic that feature. It's popular in the construction business, but when was the last time you saw anybody use that feature who wasn't in a field service work scenario?

Operating two networks leaves Sprint with a troubled customer base, higher churn issues, an unusual technology platform and all the other issues--such as limited handset choice--that come from being a low-volume customer. There's more downside than upside. And be clear, most of the churn is from the Nextel side.

From Google's vantage point, it is clear that the Sprint WiMAX network will be built and operational years before any 700-MHz network will. Sprint's WiMAX network has been designed for mobile access, where Clearwire has been taking the fixed approach. Mobility works better for Android devices, obviously.

Sprint now says it will review its WiMax business plans. It also should be seriously considering what to do with the Nextel assets.