Sprint to Launch LTE in Former CDMA Spectrum

Sprint executives now are explaining how they will launch Long Term Evolution services on the Sprint network, using the 1900 MHz spectrum.

If the implications are not clear, it means Sprint has decided to start using the LTE air interface in the same spectrum it presently uses to support its 3G CDMA network.

That means a complete upgrade to LTE across the entire Sprint footprint, cannibalizing CDMA spectrum.

Some had thought Sprint would use the 800-MHz spectrum freed up by the shut down of the iDEN network, or perhaps spectrum made available by Clearwire. It appears Sprint simply has decided it cannot wait, and is going to start pulling 3G spectrum off line as it adds LTE services in the same frequencies.

Sprint executives expect that by the end of 2013, 275 million potential users (PoPs) will be covered by the LTE network, including 100 percent of the area where Sprint's 4G WiMAX services now exist.

The move is highly significant, as it means Sprint is going to move fairly quickly to upgrade CDMA users to LTE.

Sprint to use CDMA bands for LTE

Wireline Substitution, Mobile Plans, Broadband

KPN seems to have found a way to take market share in the German wireless market: give customers unlimited calling for a flat fee, avoid phone subsidies or selling phones, and keep things simple. The growing number of wireless-only customers apparently is helping, as one obviously needs more minutes in the plan to cover the additional volume when all calls in and out are taken on the mobile.

For $108 a month, Base subscribers can make unlimited free calls anywhere in Germany. A comparable offer by Vodafone costs $144. The sister E-Plus brand KPN supports also has shifted to this "no frills" approach.

In the third quarter 2007 subscriptions wereup 16 percent year-over-year, to some 14.1 million. E-Plus operating profit also rose 79 percent over that period, with profit margins of 38 percent.

Of course, KPN will have to figure out how to translate that success into similar good fortune in the mobile broadband segment, where it might not be quite so easy to maintain robust margins of this sort. Still, KPN's approach to the market is an example of what a carrier can do in an environment where phones are unlocked.

As Verizon moves to "unlock" its CDMA network, and as the C block 700-MHz spectrum goes into operation, also with an "unlocked" approach to device use, one wonders how soon somebody will try this in the U.S. market as well. Cricket Communications, one might argue, already has been chasing the wireline replacement market, but without the unlocked phone component.

Whither WiMAX?

It might seem odd to question just how big the WiMAX infrastructure market might be, given strong support from the likes of Intel and others who see a data device optimized broadband network as a huge opportunity. And maybe WiMAX ultimately will create a large enough global base of infrastructure that handset and device manufacturers will have a large opportunity.

But potential end user volumes matter, and matter a lot, in today's world. The issue isn't whether WiMAX will work. CDMA works. But global volumes for GSM networks are so large that device innovation is higher on the GSM than the CDMA sides of the ledger. Volume also is a factor for software developers, who prefer larger markets to smaller markets.

Sprint got people excited with plans to build a $5-billion, nation-wide network in the U.S. but that strategy is now in question. Sure, there's the rest of the world, but if you have followed mobile technology trends for any time, you are more careful about the installed base, and the potential installed base.

In the third-quarter, Infonetics Research says, worldwide WiMax equipment sales climbed a mere six percent to $206-million. Meanwhile, worldwide unit shipments of fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment rose 16 percent in the third quarter of 2007.

Still, Infonetics is looking for Wi-Max to see annual growth of 87 percent between 2006 and 2010 as more carriers embrace the fourth-generation technology.

The number of worldwide WiMAX subscribers (fixed and mobile) is expected to skyrocket to close to 60 million in 2010, led by the Asian region, Infonetics says.

Still, there is the historic example of iDEN and CDMA to consider. Devices are more important than networks these days. And one has to contend with the issue of sheer mass, in that regard. There's no question that WiMAX will work. But that's not the crucial question. The issue is how large the market for WiMAX devices might be, compared to GSM and its derivatives.

Verizon Will Support Android Devices

Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdam says the company will allow Android phones on its network, which is scheduled to open up next year to outside applications and devices, according to Business Week. Of course, that's what one assumes Verizon Wireless meant when it said it would open its CDMA network to all devices compliant with technical standards it has yet to release. Still, it is good to get confirmation.

"We're planning on using Android," McAdam says. "Android is an enabler of what we do."

It remains to be seen how active developers may want to get for devices and software on a network that Verizon has declared is not its future, however. Presumably Verizon has figured out that apps and devices compliant on the CDMA network can be authored in such a way that the air interface is not a problem as its planned LTE fourth-generation network is put into service in several years.

And, of course, some note that Verizon retains the ability to reverse course on LTE and choose some other air interface, in any case. It should be an interesting couple of months, as Google and Verizon dance around each firms' strategy for the 700-MHz auction.

Sprint Stands Alone

Now that Verizon Wireless has selected Long Term Evolution as its fourth-generation platform, and if Sprint continues with its WiMAX fourth-generation network platform, prospects for CDMA are dim in the U.S. market.

Of course, there always is the possibility that Sprint might reverse course and abandon WiMAX. But Sprint Nextel at the moment really stands alone in the platform area. It runs the Nextel iDEN network that no other major carrier supports and CDMA-based 3G that Verizon says it will abandon.

It is hard to imagine T-Mobile adopting anything other than LTE, so it appears CDMA is at a deadend in the U.S. market.

Verizon to Dump CDMA for 4G

Verizon Wireless will base its fourth-generation mobile broadband network on LTE – Long Term Evolution – the technology developed within the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standards organization and based on GSM.

The selection of LTE means Verizon wants to align itself with the scale opportunities the global standard will provide, rather than extending its existing CDMA platform.

Verizon and Vodafone have a coordinated trial plan for LTE that begins in 2008. Trial suppliers include Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia-Siemens, and Nortel. Discussions with device suppliers have expanded beyond traditional suppliers such as LG, Samsung, Motorola, Nokia, and Sony Ericsson, as consumer electronics companies anticipate embedded wireless functionality in their future products.

Users won't see 4G for several years, however, so there's no need to worry about existing CDMA equipment. The decision does call into question how much actual developer interest there will be in Verizon's new "open" CDMA platform, however.

Good News for Sprint

It's a good thing for Sprint that it is working with Google on a Gphone probably available next year. It might not help with Nextel churn, but it will increase Sprint's attractiveness as a provider of CDMA-based Web devices, which is what I believe the new category will shake out to be. Sprint long has prided itself as a provider of advanced mobile data services so this was almost a "must."

It will be a very tough choice, but I still think Sprint has to proceed with the WiMAX rollout and think seriously about divesting Nextel if that is what it takes. Nextel used to lead the industry in ARPU by quite some measure, but the delta is pretty small, and declining. If that was the reason for the buy, I'm not sure it makes much sense anymore. WiMAX is a better strategic use of capital, and Sprint already is working with Google on that front, in terms of optimizing Web application performance. Well, Google apps at least. But those are some of the more important Web apps overall.

As someone who uses services and devices from at&t, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint, Sprint has for some time been on the "switch these two phones to somebody else" list. Right now, the issue is simply that the old plan we use is so cheap, relative to the others, that we put up with the service.

But Sprint's devices are the lightest-used of all the other services, so it is a reasonable trade-off. Also, my wife is such a light user that she doesn't care about features other than "calling." I won't buy phones that don't use SIMs. Data cards suffer from no such criteria, which explains Verizon. Still, I can't see using four providers in 12 months time.

But that's just me. Being part of the Google ecosystem is a good thing for Sprint.

No Contract, No Locking, Nobody

Sprint CEO Gary Forsee says Sprint is thinking about expanding the test area for an unlimited calling plan that doesn’t require customers to sign a contract. That's something Leap Wireless and MetroPCS already offer. Nokia meanwhile appears poised to start selling unlocked N95 series really-smart phones imminently. So far, no carriers seem willing to do both.

Of course, there are good financial reasons why carriers like contracts and locked phones. The former provides a more predictable revenue stream and the latter ensures lower churn. Apple doesn't like unlocking either, as it now participates in the recurring revenue stream.

At least some users would benefit from unlocking and contractless service. Anybody buying a Nokia N95, for example, is spending enough on a device that the portable computer (it seems too limiting to call it a phone) clearly is more important than any network.

Of course, the carriers increasingly will find themselves in the position of angering power users who can figure out other ways to use unlocked devices, with or without contracts. To the extent that an N95 really is a mobile media and Web platform, outfitted both with Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, users can simply avoid any carrier "calling plan" if they are willing to put up with a little hassle and use Wi-Fi for connectivity.

That won't be very desirable for anybody who really needs mobile calling, but lots of people choose to carry two devices in any case. So maybe one of the new choices is one device for mobile email and voice, and the second for rich media and rich Web browsing.

It isn't so clear to me that a heavy email user is going to opt for an N95 in any case. The N95 excels as a rich media device (audio and video performance is spectacular) but won't satisfy a BlackBerry addict. The BlackBerry, though, isn't so great as a phone and really doesn't measure up as a media player.

Carriers might not like it, but devices are becoming the drivers of purchase and use behavior for a growing segment of the user base. Sure, the presence or non-presence of 3G capabilities is an issue. Operating system is getting to be more important. And then there's the blasted CDMA or GSM choice to be made. Pricing plans still are important, to be sure. But device coolness arguably is enough to outweigh the other considerations.

N95 might be among the first devices that test the theory that a powerful enough rich media device can get traction using Wi-Fi connectivity as an alternative to "mobile network" connectivity. Broad traction still will require 3G GSM. But N95 is the first device I've experienced that gets one to thinking about using it in a way similar to a laptop, rather than a phone. A Wi-Fi-equipped iPod is sort of in the same category.