Over the Air Updates: Ecosystem Implications

Just about everything in the mobile ecosystem seems to have business model implications. Consider the way mobile devices get updated.

Apple has used the iTunes to push updates to its iOS mobile devices. When a new software update is available, users have to tether to a PC to load the update onto their mobiles.

When an update to Google’s Android operating system or HP/Palm’s webOS is released, users are provided an update notification and can update the software right on their phone.

You might argue that the "tether to PC" model was forced by the relatively primitive nature of the iPod, which established the practice. On the other hand, lots of people have noticed the curiosity of the need to connect an iPad to a PC to configure the tablet.

Oddly, Apple has been saying the iPad "is not a PC." Requiring a PC to activate every tablet might illustrate that in a sort of negtive way: the tablet update strategy isn't smart enough to allow a natively mobile device to update over the air.

But Apple appears to be readying over-the-air iOS updates, starting in the fall of 2011, for updates to iOS 5 devices.

The business model implications of the over-the-air updating are that it appears Apple has to come to agreement Verizon Wireless and AT&T about how to support the wireless updates.

That points out the subtle, but real gatekeeper functions mobile service providers continue to possess in the mobile ecosystem.

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Will iPad Be the Fastest-Adopted Mobile Device, Ever?

At this rate, the Apple iPad might wind up becoming the fastest-growing mobile device ever.

What is iPad Cannibalizing?

If Apple Macintosh computer sales are up 39 percent, while iPod sales are down 17 percent, might that imply that sales of the Apple iPad are cannibalizing iPod sales? That is what Piper Jaffray research analyst Gene Munster appears to believe.

U.S. Mac sales are up 39 percent year over year for the month of April, and in fact have been up, year over year, every month so far in 2010, according to researchers at NPD. NPOD's data also suggests Apple iPod sales are down 17 percent year over year for the month of April, and have been down for half of the initial months of 2010.

It stands to reason that at least part of the market share the Apple iPad is getting is coming at the expense of other products or suppliers.

At the various least, consumers might be forced to put off buying something else if they decide to buy an iPad. But at least some observers think Apple is cannibalizing itself.

"April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales," says Munster. "From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales."

Given the average selling price of the Mac, which is about four times greater than that of a typical iPod, that likely is good news for Apple, at least in terms of revenue, Munster thinks.

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Google Optimizes Apps For iPad: Which Raises a Question

Google says it has optimized applications for the iPad to take advantage of its large display. Using Gmail on the iPad, for example, users will see a two-pane display that mimics what they are used to seeing on PCs, notebooks or netbooks.

The YouTube and Google Maps apps are preloaded on iPads.

But those features still raise the as-yet-unanswered question: can the iPad uncover significant demand for a new category of device in between a smartphone and a netbook or notebook? Or is the iPad really going to wind up succeeding or failing as a replacement for the netbook or notebook?

Those are quite different outcomes. For me it comes down to the irreducible number of devices I must carry, both locally and when traveling. Around town, the irreducible and desired number is "one." When traveling, because when push comes to shove I use a laptop for work, the irreducible number is "two." Well, actually three, as I carry two mobiles.

Years ago, the irreducible number when traveling briefly floated up to four, when I added the iPod. That turned out to be one item too many, and I no longer travel with it, except when running.

My point is that consumers weighing use of an  iPad will have to decide what it is, before they buy. And that means an identity "crisis" has to be solved before it becomes a huge mass market success. It seems to me to be a very-good media consumption platform, crudely put, an iPod touch on steroids. That will raise the question of the physical need to add more more portable device to the purse or backpack. For some users, that will be a point of friction.

But some people very quickly are going to try seeing whether, in their circumstances, an iPad can displace an existing netbook or notebook. And that could point the way to the iPad becoming a new form of netbook, rather than creating a new category of devices people generally use.

Apple could win, in either scenario, but wins most if it can create a new product category.

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It doesn't appear that consumers view the iPad primarily as an e-book reader, but more as a media appliance, a comScore study suggests.

Though 37 percent of respondents indicated they were “likely” or “very likely” to read books on the device, nearly half indicated a high likelihood of using the iPad for browsing the Internet (50 percent) and receiving and sending email (48 percent).

More than one third said they would use it for listening to music (38 percent), maintaining an address book or contact list (37 percent), watching videos or movies (36 percent), storing and viewing photos (35 percent) and reading newspapers and magazines (34 percent). says comScore.

“These devices have the potential to be incredibly disruptive to the way consumers currently access digital content," says Serge Matta, comScore EVP.

The big issue is whether there exists a sizable market for a digital appliance somewhere between a netbook or notebook PC and an iPhone. In that regard, when asked whether they would use an iPad “instead of” or “in addition to” other digital devices, the highest amount of potential substitution was for the iPod Touch (37 percent).

Conversely, despite widespread belief that the iPad might threaten netbook adoption, only 22 percent of consumers said they would use an iPad in place of a netbook.

The most important device attributes that consumers indicated they would like to have included in the iPad were: ability to use multiple applications/programs at once (43 percent), having a screen the same size as a laptop or desktop computer (37 percent) and having a built-in camera (34 percent). Among iOwners, the percentages were substantially higher at 56, 66 and 51 percent, respectively.

Some 34 percent of males indicated they were likely to use the iPad for playing action, strategy or role-playing games, as did 28 percent of females. More than half of those 18 to 24 year olds (53 percent) said they were likely to use the iPad for gaming.

Younger consumers indicated a high willingness to pay for news and magazines specially formatted for e-readers. About 68 percent of 25 to 34 year olds and 59 percent of 35 to 44 year olds said they were willing to pay for this type of content.

If comScore's results prove to be correct, the iPad will emerge as a media appliance.

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What Does iTunes and App Store Behavior Indicate?

About 75 percent of iTunes digital music buyers are 25 or older, says Forester Research analyst Mark Mulligan. I admit I haven't been paying any attention to the demographics of iTunes downloaders, so that comes as a surprise to me.

Apple iPhone app "for fee" downloads, on the other hand, seem to be growing at a faster rate than iTunes songs did. I haven't seen age demographics on iPhone downloads, but it stands to reason that users 25 and older are the dominant iPhone demographic. In 2008 and 2009 it appears that about 30 percent of iPhone buyers were younger than 25.

What might all that mean? Mulligan argues that music products are not as interesting to buyers as applications are. He also argues that music is not as important to buyers under 25 as it seems to be among users older than 25.

The implication there is that iTunes and music downloads have not quite caught on with younger users as one might casually assume is the case. One might note that music purchases might be more common among users with higher disposable income, which would skew to older demographics.

One might argue that music is just as important to younger users as older users, but that sideloading or illegal downloads are the dominant acquisition method.

Mulligan's observation is that the music industry still has not found a way to increase the attractiveness of its product among the upcoming generations of consumers.

I'm not entirely convinced that conclusion is completely warranted. It might be the case that downloads are driven by users 25 and older, just as music downloads seem to be.

On the other hand, one has to note that gaming applications are arguably more popular with iPod "touch" users, use of which definitely skews to the teen market segment. I'm not sure how downloading of paid apps stacks up in that demographic.

One might argue that what iTunes and the App Store have shown is a clear value for users as a means of content and application distribution channel, irrespective of age. So far, "free" apps seem to constitute 85 to 90 percent of all downloads from the App Store.

App Stores Very Valuable for Handset Suppliers and Users; Maybe Not Developers

App stores have been a huge boost to smartphone perceived value. What they haven't yet proven is that they are an effective way for software developers to sell applications.

About 80 percent to 90 percent of app downloads are of the "free" rather than "paid" variety, according to AdMob.

Apple is Now a Mobile Company

The iPhone now is Apple's biggest business, and it was a "zero" revenue contributor three years ago. Where Apple had fourth-quarter 2009 Mac revenue of $4.5 billiion, it had iPhone revenue of $5.6 billion, up 90 percent year over year. The iPod contributed $3.4 billion in revenue.

Even if one assumes no Mac revenue is attributable to portable devices, iPhone and iPod revenue from fully mobile devices amounts to $9 billion out of a total $13.5 billion in quarterly revenue, or two thirds of total.

Public Wi-Fi: Smartphones Driving Usage

Originally envisioned as a for-fee service used by users who wanted Internet access for their notebooks, public Wi-Fi hotspots increasingly are used by smartphone users.

As a percentage of total sessions, handheld access increased from 20 percent in 2008 to 35 percent in 2009, according to In-Stat.. By 2011 handhelds are anticipated to account for half of hotspot connections.

There are lots of reasons for the trend. The number of devices equipped with Wi-Fi capability is growing fast. In-Stat estimates that, from 2007 to 2008, Wi-Fi-equipped device sales inreased more than 50 percent. Service providers also are encouring users by offering Wi-Fi hotspot access as an amenity to their fixed broadband, smartphone or PC card customers.

More devices able to use Wi-Fi, plus a "no incremental cost" charging model are boosting activity. The other development is use of devices other than PCs and phones that can use Wi-Fi. The Apple iPod "touch" is perhaps the best example, but In-Stat points out that shipments of Wi-Fi-enabled entertainment devices, such as cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players, will increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013.

Apple Seeks "Free Access to iTunes"

Apple is in discussions with leading music companies about giving customers free access to its entire iTunes music library in exchange for premium pricing of its iPod and iPhone devices, reports Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson of the Financial Times.

The “all you can eat” model, a replica of Nokia’s “comes with music” deal with Universal Music last December. Nokia reportedly will offer $80 or so to music industry partners, in exchange for the use of music assets.

Apple is said to have offered $20 per device, and also is said to be examining a subscription plan for iPhone users, as that device obviously comes with a billing arrangement.

The subscription model might allow users to keep up to 40 or 50 tracks a year, even if they later cancelled a subscription or changed devices.

As the old adage goes: "With all this ---- lying around, there has to be a horse here somewhere." In other words, there are new business models to be discovered that provide direct benefits to content owners, device manufacturers and access providers.

Over the long term, the only way viable business models will be constructed that support the building of fiber-to-home and mobile broadband networks, is when all the key value chain members also participate in the revenue chain. An uneasy relationship it will remain. But the relationships and models have to be created.

Otherwise, we won't get ubiquitous and capacious broadband upon which services and applications can be run.

Last Music Domino Falls: Sony Drops DRM

Sony BMG has been the last of the major music labels to insist on the use of Digital Rights Management for sales of its music in digital form. Apparently even Sony now has thrown in the towel, according to Business Week.

Sony is expected to start offering some portions of its catalog in a no-DRM format sometime in the first quarter, probably using Amazon.com's download store. Oddly enough, though music labels earlier insisted on DRM as a way of deterring piracy, DRM arguably accounts for Apple iTune's dominance of the download business, as DRM means songs can be downloaded only to specific devices.

Presumably, the announcement will helpl boost sales of downloaded music, as this projection by Enders Analysis suggests.

Backdoor Sony music MP3s

Sony's music download service uses the Windows Media Audio (WMA) format, not MP3. So it is interesting to find this bit of advice on the download site about how to take the copy-protected Sony music and transfer it to an iPod, an operation that is the equivalent, after a bit of work on the users' part, to supporting an MP3 format free of digital rights management.

"Attention iPod users:

Our download service provides files in the WMA music format or the WMV video format, which is not supported by Apple Macintosh computers. To use your music with an iPod, simply follow the steps below:

1. Save each downloaded song to your PC
2. Burn a music CD (in CDA file format)
3. Import the music from the CD into iTunes
4. Update your iPod"

If this forecast by Strategy Analytics is correct, most of the action in the music download business, exclusive of phone-specific ringtones, will not be generated by mobile service providers.

Some Progress on Music Front, Unless You are Apple

Warner Music has decided to offer its complete catalog, free of digital rights management, through Amazon's new MP3 store. EMI, Universal, and Warner now offer their catalogs in DRM-free digital formats, leaving Sony BMG the lone major music giant still clinging to the DRM approach. Amazon now claims to offer for than 2.9 million songs in MP3 format from over 33,000 unique labels.

Now, with the move to MP3, the labels that have chosen to open their music have a way to encourage multiple download services to flourish, keeping labels safe from being dominated by any single digital distributor, namely iTunes.

Does Music Industry "Get It"?

as someone who arrogantly and wrongly has accused whole industries of "not getting it" at points in the past, I never like to presume I understand executive thinking better than they themselves do.

What sometimes appears as "cluelessness" often has more to do with deliberate timing. and rational calculations about how long to let one revenue model atrophy before heating up a replacement revenue model that will cannibalize the older model.

So let me be charitable. Perhaps U.S. music executives do have a plan for changing their business model and packaging. Perhaps they are executing on that plan even now.

Album sales declined 9.5 percent last year, while digital song sales grew 45 percent, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Physical product sales were down 15 percent, including sales of "singles."

So maybe the issue is simply figuring out better ways to handle digital rights that aren't unfriendly to consumers who have paid for their music, nor damaging to copyright holders. It's a tough problem, to be sure.

And the problems extend far beyond copyright issues. As someone who has made a transition to iPod as my primary music playback system, and as someone whose PC-embedded hard drives need to be replaced once a year or so, the issue of storing and managing the music collection is a serious problem.

The reason, of course, is that each iPod syncs with just one hard drive. Lose that hard drive and one has two options: completely erase the contents of the iPod, or never change the data already on the iPod.

So now I have to take two paths to make sure the music isn't lost: store the copies on an external hard drive that hopefully "never" dies; and then keep the compact disk as well, since the external hard drive will ultimately fail, forcing me to restore or simply forget about the music stored on it.

As a simple music customer, this is a problem. Unless I have physical media backup, the music always is at risk of loss, for mechanical reasons. But keeping those CDs is not ideal, either. And the process of restoring lost music is time-consuming. So music storage "in the cloud" seems promising, at least to me.

RIAA Suit: Not as Bad As First Thought

Engadget has done some digging and reports that the Recording Industry Associaton of America's lawsuit against Jeffery Howell is not for ripping CDs to an MP3 player, but to pedestrian illegal downloading. While we might disagree about the practice, RIAA is within its rights to pursue that sort of action.

So it appears the difference is the public assertion, as part of the suit, that MP3s ripped from legally owned CDs are "unauthorized copies." That remains the more critical issue. Is that sort of thing, done for personal use by the legal owner of a music CD, fair use or not?

Music Industry Fights Legal Music on iPods, PCs

How long can an industry that sues its own paying customers thrive or survive? In what appears to be an escalation of on-going legal efforts, the Recording Industry Association of America has sued Jeffrey Howell, a Scottsdale, Ariz., man who kept a collection of about 2,000 purchased music recordings on his personal computer, reports Marc Fisher, Washington Post staff writer.

The RIAA argues it is illegal for someone who has legally purchased a compact disc to transfer that music into his or her own computer. By extension, one would assume the RIAA also opposes sideloading music onto an MP3 player.

That is going to be problematic if digital music downloading continues to grow, as iSuppli and virtually every other research outfit argues.

The RIAA argues that the MP3 files Howell made on his computer from legally bought CDs are "unauthorized copies" of copyrighted recordings.

The Howell case was not the first time the industry has argued that making a personal copy from a legally purchased CD is illegal, says Fisher.

But lawyers for consumers point to a series of court rulings over the last few decades that found no violation of copyright law in the use of VCRs and other devices to time-shift TV programs; that is, to make personal copies for the purpose of making portable a legally obtained recording, Fisher notes.

Digital media has proven to be a headache for copyright holders, to be sure. In a previous era where only imperfect analog copies could be made, and recording was cumbersome, the issue was inherently limited in scope. Digital technology of course creates an infinitely-bigger problem, in part because copies are identical and because it is much easier to copy.

The problem is that common sense suggests one should not have fewer rights in a digital domain than in the analog domain being displaced. That is to say, one should not find that legal personal uses of media in the analog domain are illegal in the digital domain.

That's essentially what the RIAA is arguing. There' a "moral hazard" here, as economists might describe it. If any established code of conduct, law, regulation or practice is routinely violated often enough, behavior changes. What formerly was seen as "prohibited" now is seen as "right."

While it is understandable that the RIAA wants to protect a business model, it isgoing about things in an ultimately destructive way by making war on its customers. The RIAA might think it is within its rights to restrict copying of a single user's legally-bought music to that user's own MP3 player. Users do not agree.

So by insisting on defense of its rights, seen as a violation of fair use by users, the RIAA creates a climate of greater "lawlessness," as users simply will lose all respect for the RIAA's position.

Mac Users do "Think Different"

The NPD Group says consumers who own Apple Mac computers are much more likely than PC users to pay to download music. According to NPD, in the third quarter of 2007 half of all Mac users had paid to download music tracks from sites like iTunes, but just 16 percent of PC owners had done so.

And while Mac users were more likely to pay to download digital music than their PC-using counterparts, they were also more likely to purchase CDs.

“There’s still a cultural divide between Apple consumers and the rest of the computing world, and that’s especially apparent when it comes to the way they interact with music,” says Russ Crupnick, NPD Group VP. “Mac users are not only more active in digital music, they are also more likely to buy CDs, which helps debunk the myth that digital music consumers stop buying music in CD format.”

According to NPD’s consumer panel data, unit-volume sales share for Apple computers increased from nearly six percent in 2006 to almost nine percent between January 2007 and October 2007.

Overall, more than 32 percent of Mac users report purchasing CDs in the third quarter of 2007, compared to just 28 percent of PC users.

In addition to purchasing CDs and downloading music, Mac users are also more likely to listen to music and watch videos on their MP3-players and computers.

While 34 percent of Mac users had uploaded music to their MP3 players, just 16 percent of PC users had done the same. Mac users are also much more likely to listen to music files on their computers (56 percent) than are PC users (31 percent).

Enterprise Apple PC Buying Increases

Though some in the MIcrosoft operating system ecosystem will pooh pooh the news, a recent Changewave Alliance survey suggests the strongest enterprise buying of Apple computers since 2005. It may be the Leopard effect, the iPod or iPhone effect. Or maybe, as more
computing moves to Web interfaces, it is becoming more rational again to choose "easy to use" devices, as the key applications can be supported either on a Windows or Leopard operating system.

As somebody who was forced to give up Apple machines in favor of the PCs everybody else in the enterprise was using, this is a welcome change. Somebody needs to update this, but it is priceless:

What if Operating Systems Were Airlines?

DOS Airlines
Everybody pushes the airplane until it glides, then they jump on and let the plane coast until it hits the ground again, then they push again jump on again, and so on.

OS/2 Airlines
The terminal is almost empty, with only a few prospective passengers milling about. The announcer says that their flight has just departed, wishes them a good flight, though there are no planes on the runway. Airline personnel walk around, apologising profusely to customers in hushed voices, pointing from time to time to the sleek, powerful jets outside the terminal on the field. They tell each passenger how good the real flight will be on these new jets and how much safer it will be than Windows Airlines, but that they will have to wait a little longer for the technicians to finish the flight systems.

Once they finally finished you're offered a flight at reduced cost. To board the plane, you have your ticket stamped ten different times by standing in ten different lines. Then you fill our a form showing where you want to sit and whether the plane should look and feel like an ocean liner, a passenger train or a bus. If you succeed in getting on the plane and the plane succeeds in taking off the ground, you have a wonderful trip...except for the time when the rudder and flaps get frozen in position, in which case you will just have time to say your prayers and get in crash position.

Windows Air
The terminal is pretty and colorful, with friendly stewards, easy baggage check and boarding, and a smooth take-off. After about 10 minutes in the air, the plane explodes with no warning whatsoever.

Windows NT Air
Just like Windows Air, but costs more, uses much bigger planes, and takes out all the other aircraft within a 40-mile radius when it explodes.

Windows XP
See "Windows NT"

Windows Vista
See "Windows NT," but prettier, if useless

Mac Airlines
All the stewards, stewardesses, captains, baggage handlers, and ticket agents look the same, act the same, and talk the same. Every time you ask questions about details, you are told you don't need to know, don't want to know, and would you please return to your seat and watch the movie.

Unix Airlines
Each passenger brings a piece of the airplane and a box of tools to the airport. They gather on the tarmac, arguing constantly about what kind of plane they want to build and how to put it together. Eventually, they build several different aircraft, but give them all the same name. Some passengers actually reach their destinations. All passengers believe they got there.

Wings of OS/400
The airline has bought ancient DC-3s, arguably the best and safest planes that ever flew, and painted "747" on their tails to make them look as if they are fast. The flight attendants, of course, attend to your every need, though the drinks cost $15 a pop. Stupid questions cost $230 per hour, unless you have SupportLine, which requires a first class ticket and membership in the frequent flyer club. Then they cost $500, but your accounting department can call it overhead.

Mach Airlines
There is no airplane. The passengers gather and shout for an airplane, then wait and wait and wait and wait. A bunch of people come, each carrying one piece of the plane with them. These people all go out on the runway and put the plane together piece by piece, arguing constantly about what kind of plane they're building. The plane finally takes off, leaving the passengers on the ground waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting. After the plane lands, the pilot telephones the passengers at the departing airport to inform them that they have arrived.

Newton Airlines
After buying your ticket 18 months in advance, you finally get to board the plane. Upon boarding the plane you are asked your name. After 6 times, the crew member recognizes your name and then you are allowed to take your seat. As you are getting ready to take your seat, the steward announces that you have to repeat the boarding process because they are out of room and need to recount to make sure they can take more passengers.

VMS Airlines
The passengers all gather in the hanger, watching hundreds of technicians check the flight systems on this immense, luxury aircraft. This plane has at least 10 engines and seats over 1,000 passengers. All the passengers scramble aboard, as do the necessary complement of 200 technicians. The pilot takes his place up in the glass cockpit. He guns the engines, only to realise that the plane is too big to get through the hangar doors.

BeOS Air
You have to pay for the tickets, but they're half the price of Windows Air, and if you are an aircraft mechanic you can probably ride for free. It only takes 15 minutes to get to the airport and you are cheuferred there in a limozine. BeOS Air only has limited types of planes that only only hold new luggage. All planes are single seaters and the model names all start with an "F" (F-14, F-15, F-16, F-18, etc.). The plane will fly you to your destination on autopilot in half the time of other Airways or you can fly the plane yourself. There are limited destinations, but they are only places you'd want to go to anyway. You tell all your friends how great BeOS Air is and all they say is "What do you mean I can't bring all my old baggage with me?"

Linux Airlines
Disgruntled employees of all the other OS airlines decide to start their own airline. They build the planes, ticket counters, and pave the runways themselves. They charge a small fee to cover the cost of printing the ticket, but you can also download and print the ticket yourself. When you board the plane, you are given a seat, four bolts, a wrench and a copy of the seat-HOWTO.html. Once settled, the fully adjustable seat is very comfortable, the plane leaves and arrives on time without a single problem, the in-flight meal is wonderful. You try to tell customers of the other airlines about the great trip, but all they can say is, "You had to do what with the seat?"

Operating Systems Proliferate

What this market share data supplied by Net Applications doesn't show is the huge growth in specialized operating systems run by device such as the iPhone and iPod, among others. Does anybody else think it is shocking that iPhone, in months, already has zoomed past Windows CE, which has been in the market for years?

Windows XP 78.37%
Windows Vista 9.19%
MacIntel 3.59%
Mac OS 3.22%
Windows 2000 2.97%
Windows 98 0.76%
Windows NT 0.63%
Linux 0.57%
Windows ME 0.43%
iPhone 0.09%
Windows CE 0.06%
Windows 95 0.02%
Hiptop 0.02%
Series60 0.01%
Pike v7.6 0.01%
Web TV 0.01%
PLAYSTATION 3 0.01%
PSP 0.01%
iPod 0.01%
SunOS 0.01%
Nintendo Wii 0.01%
Mobile/1A543a 0.00%
OSF1 alpha 0.00%

Demand is Going to Grow for "Unconverged" Experiences

Maybe some of you already agree that "Swiss Army knife" mobile platforms have to make compromises. And one of the compromises is ease of use. There's just so much complexity a user can put up with before the alternative--a simpler device--starts to make sense. And we are getting there.

Sure, you have to carry multiple devices. But think about it: most of us already do that, and as nice as one device would be, choosing between a notebook and a mobile phone or email device is too tough a choice. I carry two or three communications devices everywhere, if on the move. And then an iPod Shuffle for music. For short periods of time I will make do with either an email device or a smart phone in the pocket. But the other devices are there.

If an airplane is involved; if I am going to be "out of town," two is the minimum number of devices, and I usually carry three. Yes, it is a hassle. But so is restriction to one device. So far at least, three is the irreducible number.

And there might be a consumer backlash coming even from the ranks of users who don't have to "run and gun" with heavy text entry. Universal McCann's European office has surveyed 10,000 Internet users in 21 countries and found that demand for a convergent device such as the iPhone is actually pretty low, at least in the U.K. market.

About 41 percent of the 500 Britons surveyed expressed an interest in owning a converged mobile handset, on par with France and South Korea. Interest in Japan, Taiwan, the U.S. market and Germany was even lower, with only 27 percent of Japanese respondents expressing an interest. Now, those are significant numbers for Apple, to be sure.

The interest was greatest in Mexico at 79 percent and similarly high in other developing markets, including Brazil and Malaysia at 72 percent and India at 70 percent. The point is that these are markets where the smart phone will be the PC. The irreducible number there is one.

In the U.K. market, most people already own a mobile phone and one or more of the devices that the iPhone could replace, with 24 percent of respondents owning five or more devices. For example, 82 percent of Britons own a mobile phone and 48 percent own an MP3 player, the research suggests.

There is demand for new services. Some 48 percent said they would like iPod video capabilities on their mobile phone.

About 43 percent said they wanted wireless Internet capability and 28 percent want audio-only iPod functionality.

Convergence is in many ways a compromise driven by financial limitations, not aspiration. In the markets where multiple devices are affordable, the vast majority would prefer that.

Up to a point, multiple features are important. It's a simple example, but the 5-megapixel camera on a Nokia N95 is way better than no camera or a 2-megapixel camera on a BlackBerry.

The point is that there is a limit to how much complexity and how many trade-offs a user is going to put up with to have "just one device."

And then there are the cultural issue. I think we are reaching a point where "always connected" has to be balanced. "Real," as opposed to "digital" life is going to start looking really attractive at some point. I think the move already has begun.

"Unconverged," indeed "not digital, not connected" pursuits are going to be seen as more interesting, as the pendulum starts to swing back. When "connected" starts to become a burden, people will "unconnect." When "convergence" starts to become too complex, with too many trade-offs, people will "uncoverge." Just watch.