Walled Gardens on the Web?

Though it might have seemed a ridiculous notion just a few years ago, the web now is fragmenting into various walled and curated gardens as devices, service provider business deals and even operating system environments begin to favor and curate web services.

Of course, for some users curated environments might be a good idea. Children's use of the Internet, for example, seems an area where parents might welcome more control and curation.

"Now fraught with pornography, scams, spam, fraud, malware, adware, and viruses, the Web has become a dangerous place to raise children or conduct any other form of educational endeavor," says Chris Poley, a financial markets participant and trader.

It is not entirely clear whether most users will prefer curated experiences, and if so, when and where. What seems incontestable is that there are use cases (iPads and smartphones, for example) where curation increasingly is the case and might even be welcomed.

It is a stunning reversal of the trend to openness, though.

Internet Evolution - Chris Poley - An Argument for Walled Gardens on the Web:

Verizon To Add "Own" Operating System, Devices

A few mobile services providers are taking clear steps to insert themselves a bit more forcefully into the handset operating system and device business, as Verizon Wireless, Orange and Korea's SKT introducing LiMO-based handsets in 2010. .


For Verizon, LiMo is expected to help create sales volume for high-end mobile Web devices with a Verizon brand. As with the moves by carriers to create a carrier-centric applications community, the move represents an effort to gain more clout in the important device and application space where other partners now dominate.


The LiMO smartphone software platform, unlike the vendor controlled Android, Symbian and Windows, is largely driven by carriers. Therefore, it fits neatly with other operator initiatives to swing the balance of power in mobile services their own way, notably the new Wholesale Applications Community (WAC).

Three more carriers to support LiMO this year

Loosely-Coupled Nexus One Mobile Ecosystem Creates Problems

Some problems are predictable; some aren't. It was predictable that as owners of unlocked Nexus One devices began to experience problems, they'd have to run the gauntlet of fingerpointing one often sees when ecosystems are loosely coupled.

Reporting connectivity issues, some users have been told by T-Mobile USA that it is "an HTC problem," while some users communicating with HTC have been told "it's a T-Mobile problem."

Other problems are echoes of what has been seen in the recent and immediate past, namely complaints about the quality of the 3G networks. Some users complain that 3G coverage is weak or non-existent. Some report that their devices are switching from 3G to 2G networks. Again, it might be a handset issue, but switching from a 3G to a 2G network is what happens when a 3G network gets congested.

In other cases, the error modes suggest there is a software or hardware problem. At least some users say an active HTC device, when sitting right next to a Nexus One, gets great signal while the Nexus One gets a weak signal. It's hard to blame that particular circumstance on network issues.

All that is known right now is that there is some problem using the Nexus One on the T-Mobile network.

The loosely-coupled ecosystem (open devices sold independently of service) is bound to create customer service issues, irrespective of the merits of either a network or handset.

By 2012, "Closed" Mobile Business Will be Over

Today, the wireless sector is on the edge of a seismic shift, says Deloitte. A survey of wireless industry executives found that 53 percent of surveyed network service provider executives believe their current closed business models will no longer exist by 2012.

That is a shocking finding, for several reasons. Many in the policy community seem convinced the only way to "change" the mobile industry is to legislate more "openness." Mobile industry executives, on the other hand, already believe openness will be the normal way they compete, within a shockingly short period of time.

One way of putting matters is that before the major legal challenges to any new set of wireless "neutrality" rules can be clarified, the industry already might have moved to an open business model, and arguably would have done so without any government action.

If some readers believe this is highly unlikely, one need look no further than the last major revision of U.S. telecommunications policy, the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Despite the fact that many observers argue the Act "failed," you would be hard pressed to find any user of communications who argues their services, prices and features are "worse" or even "the same" as prior to 1996.

Despite the current mistrust of markets, the recent record suggests that "regulatory failure" did not impede market success, defined as better and richer services for end users.

It appears the same thing is happening in the mobile business, and that mobile industry executives widely believe a shift to open models, precisely the state of affairs many policy advocates desire, already is happening at rapid speed.

In just three short years, economic power in the mobile business will be held by third party application providers, not service providers, mobile executives themselves believe.

More than half of the executives surveyed believe by 2010 the future of mobile will be driven by open mobile content, with 67 percent of the respondents believing it will be a “game changing” force within wireless in the short-term, Deloitte reports.

"When asked which mobile operating system has the greatest potential to be the U.S. de facto standard in five years, Google’s open source Android operating system was the runaway favorite with 43 percent of all votes, more than double the score of the next highest finisher," Deloitte says.

"In fact, 27 percent of those surveyed say that Internet companies, rather than network
carriers and handset makers, will dominate the U.S. wireless sector in five years," says Deloitte.

Nearly 60 percent of industry executives surveyed agreed that the future of mobile will be driven by open content and mobile software application providers.

"While almost two thirds of the survey respondents believe that open access regulations will accelerate the commoditization of U.S. wireless network carriers, companies that focus too narrowly on regulatory issues as the key catalyst for change may in fact miss the real market opportunities being driven by open platforms and technologies," Deloitte says.

The regulatory debate over "openness" obscures what will happen, irrespective of any new regulatory intervention. "In fact, when respondents were asked on the best course of action for network carriers to sustain their competitive advantage, keeping network access, devices and services tightly controlled and retaining as much as possible current proprietary business models was the least popular response."

In fact, 74 percent of the executives said that the key to their businesses in the future was to embrace open application and content models. One can argue that regulatory protections to open up networks are important because they will help this "natural" state of affairs to develop on its own.

It might not be politically popular at the moment to argue that a regulatory "light touch" still is the best course of action. But industry executives themselves seem committed to a view that open mobile networks are in fact the fast-coming and basic industry realty.

Whether one agrees that the Telecom Act was a success or failure does not seem to matter. The market seems to have lead to success, in spite of regulatory failure. Maybe we should not be in such a hurry to tinker with the process too much. It looks like openness is the future, no matter what interventions happen, or do not happen.

Verizon to Hold "Open Network" Conference for Developers

Verizon Wireless will convene an Open Development Device Conference on March 19 to acquaint developers with its version 1.0 of the technical specifications for wireless devices that will work on its “Any Device, Any App” network-only service option.

The conference will discuss the certification of devices that users can use on the Verizon network, without having to buy a device directly from Verizon.

Wireless Open Access Watch

With a change of presidential administration, and the high possibility that the White House will be occupied by a Democrat, all bets are off where it comes to the composition, leadership and therefore direction of Federal Communications Commission policy. But it is fair to say that a more heavily regulated approach is likely if Democrats win the White House. Incumbent tier one U.S. telcos won't like that. For other reasons, cable industry leaders will be happy as well. Competitive providers might well think their chances improve as well.

So it might be all that significant that Commissioner Michael Copps, a Democratic member of the FCC, seems to want to give incumbent wireless providers a bit of time to make good on their recent pledges to move towards more open networks, allowing any devices or applications compliant with their networks to be used.

That's an obvious counterweight to any thinking by an eventual owner of a new national broadband network that construction and activation of that similarly open network should be built as slowly as legally possible, essentially "warehousing" spectrum as long as possible. The motivation obviously is to extend the life of current revenue models as long as possible.

Pressure to keep those promises about openness on the Verizon and at&t Wireless networks will remain high if Democrats win the White House. In fact, pressure to open up wireless networks more than before is likely unstoppable if Republicans retain the White House as well. The 700-MHz auction rules about openness were pushed through by a Republican FCC chairman and the market seems to be shifting inevitably in the direction of open devices because of the market force exerted by the Apple iPhone and Google, in any case.

Dominant wireless carriers really would prefer not to deal with more openness. But it appears they no longer have a choice. That's going to be good for some new handset providers, application developers and end users, both consumer and business.

Bidden or unbidden, openness is coming.

Open Mobile a Game Changer

There arguably are as many threats and opportunities as mobile carriers move towards more-open networks and terms of use. Not all customers will want all that much control over their experience, devices and services. Walled gardens work well where optimizing a complicated user experience is necessary. iPod offers a salient current example of that approach.

Others will want nothing so much as a mobile version of the Interent. But most users will be found in between those two poles. For many consumers, the ability to unbundle the device purchase decision from the service provider will be change enough, as has been the case in European markets where such unbundling is commonplace.

The open networks trend will more troubling for carriers to the extent that more users may want to use their mobiles just like they use their PCs to access apps and services delivered by the Web.

The business challenge there is the same one carriers have faced in the wireline broadband access market. They have a pipe business based on "access." Beyond that it has been tough to monetize the access.

It isn't clear yet how the user expectations about payment models change over time. For some, there will be a permanent change in thinking about devices. People will own the devices they want and then select access and transport services separately, much as they buy their own PCs and buy broadband access from any number of suppliers.

Just as clearly, some will prefer to have their handsets subsidized in exchange for service contracts.

It is clear enough that mobile applications will explode, much as they did when the broadband-accessible Web was popularized. Carriers will sell lots more data plans, and bigger data plans. Beyond that is where the business models will have to be developed. Right now, it's hard to determine whether this is primarily good or bad for carriers, as much as it is clearly good for end users. Obviously there is new thinking by carrier executives that the trend now is inevitable in any case, and offers the possibility of rapid applications development that will drive the attractiveness of mobile broadband access itself.

Singapore will Structurally Separate NGN

Singapore is issuing a request for proposal to build a next-generation optical access network and has decided it will be built using a "structural separation" regime, where one company will build and own the access facilities and provide wholesale access to any retail provider that wants to use the network.

The RFP to construct the network will therefore provide for structural separation of the passive network operator from the retail service providers. If necessary, the government also is prepared to mandate open access provisions.

Put your finger in the air. The wind is blowing. As Bob Dylan once said: "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

Indian Wireless Firms Structurally Separate

Three Indian Wireless companies have concluded that owning and operating layer one infrastructure is not essential for retail operations.

Bharti Infratel Ltd., a unit of Bharti Airtel Ltd., is merging its telecom tower business with Vodafone Essar Ltd. and Idea Cellular Ltd.

The three companies will form an independent tower company called Indus Towers Ltd. that will provide passive infrastructure services in India. Bharti and Vodafone Essar will hold 42 percent each of the company, and Idea will own the remaining 16 percent.

Passive infrastructure services include towers, shelters, cooling systems, power supply and other items that enable telecom systems to work.

The new firm will merge the passive infrastructure assets of the three companies across 16 telecom territories in India and will initially have about 70,000 telecom sites, the statement said.

The move parallels "structural separation" (creation of a legally distinct and separate wholesale facilities company) more than "functional separation" (creation of an owned wholesale facilities company). Still, the move is interesting given the move to functional separation in Europe, where wholesale facilities are run by one entity, and all retail providers lease capacity and features to run their retail operations.

The move by the three wireless service providers mirrors a broader change in the global communications business from a completely vertically-integrated model to a partially horizontally-integrated model. Basically, communications networks increasingly operate the way data networks do, with applications running on top of facilities that are owned by many different entities in the value chain.

You might call this a move to more "open" networks, and indeed that is precisely what is happening, in small steps.

Verizon Will Support Android Devices

Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdam says the company will allow Android phones on its network, which is scheduled to open up next year to outside applications and devices, according to Business Week. Of course, that's what one assumes Verizon Wireless meant when it said it would open its CDMA network to all devices compliant with technical standards it has yet to release. Still, it is good to get confirmation.

"We're planning on using Android," McAdam says. "Android is an enabler of what we do."

It remains to be seen how active developers may want to get for devices and software on a network that Verizon has declared is not its future, however. Presumably Verizon has figured out that apps and devices compliant on the CDMA network can be authored in such a way that the air interface is not a problem as its planned LTE fourth-generation network is put into service in several years.

And, of course, some note that Verizon retains the ability to reverse course on LTE and choose some other air interface, in any case. It should be an interesting couple of months, as Google and Verizon dance around each firms' strategy for the 700-MHz auction.

Verizon Wireless Takes Reasonable Gamble

One might argue that Verizon Wireless is gambling with its whole business model in allowing use of technically-compliant devices and software on its network next year. But one can point to the experience of wireless operators in Europe, who have used this "open" model for years, to see it is not so dangerous.

In fact, Verizon gains more than it might potentially lose, just about any way you want to spin the matter. First off, it gets great press for breaking the "closed" mobile model on a voluntary basis. Also, it is betting, likely reasonably, that the overwhelming mass of buyers still will prefer the old model of "discounted phone, two-year contract."

Verizon also uses the CDMA platform, which already means there is less handset choice than possible on a GSM network, since the GSM market is so much larger, globally. Verizon just might stimulate a bit more handset and software choice by going open.

Also, open is inevitable. The 700 MHz spectrum requires such device and software openness, so it is coming to the market, in any case. Verizon might as well "look good" rather than resisting the inevitable.

Open also means Verizon has a shot at creating a more robust developer community, a helpful asset indeed as more innovation moves to the software realm.

There's very little, if any, downside and lots of upside. Not since AT&T launched its "Digital One Rate" has any leading mobile provider taken a step that will reverberate throughout the whole industry. Sometimes, innovation is not just something small companies pull off. Sometimes very large companies do it as well. And maybe, sometimes, only a very-large company can cause a major change. On occasion, innovation may require the push only a very-dominant firm can supply. This appears to be such a case.

Verizon Wireless Goes Open

In a historic move, Verizon Wireless says it will provide customers the option to use wireless devices, software and applications not offered by the company. Verizon Wireless plans to have this new choice available to customers throughout the country by the end of 2008.

In early 2008, the company will publish the technical standards the development community will need to design products to interface with the Verizon Wireless network. Any device that meets the minimum technical standard will be activated on the network. Devices will be tested and approved in a $20 million state-of-the-art testing lab which received an additional investment this year to gear up for the anticipated new demand. Any application the customer chooses will be allowed on these devices.

“This is a transformation point in the 20-year history of mass market wireless devices, one which we believe will set the table for the next level of innovation and growth,” says Lowell McAdam, Verizon Wireless president and CEO.

That isn't to say Verizon will stop bundling devices, plans and features, as it believes most consumers prefer to buy that way. Still, Verizon is bowing to the inevitable. Open wireless networks are coming.

One has to say that Google already is winning much of what it seeks: an open mobile Internet.