What's Good for Suppliers Also Good for You?

If you casually stroll past displays of PCs on the shelves of any electronics retailer, you'll see at least a few notebooks preconfigured for one brand of wireless data card access. Now, in one sense this is the same strategy used when software comes preloaded on your brand-new machine. Dial-up Internet access services, anti-virus, firewall and security, media players, browsers, games and so forth provide examples.

In the same vein, there has been an argument that the notebook screen represents real estate that a provider's icon must occupy to get more usage or attention. Up to a point there's a clear logic to such thinking.

But there's some point at which the strategy breaks down. Lots of machines sport RJ-11 connections for dial-up Internet access. I don't know how many of you think that's a "feature" instead of a "bug" anymore, but it's clearly not an important feature for many.

The point is that USB and Ethernet ports, like RJ-11 ports, are general purpose computing capabilities. They don't lock anybody into a continuing commercial relationship with any single provider. The user has choice.

Providing that a new notebook has sufficient hard disk capacity, most users probably just ignore all that preloaded software and most of the offers. Norton might disagree, of course, and that might be one of the salient exceptions. Others of us have to spend some time removing all the unwanted software from the machine or at least disabling their ability to start up automatically.

Suppliers might think otherwise, but the incremental cost of preconfiguring a PC for one flavor of 3G data card access probably outweighs everything but the revenue the manufacturer gets from the service provider for preloading the software.

Most people don't seem to have any problem buying a card when they want to use wireless broadband services. To be sure, there might be some instances where a particular buyer of a particular model actually wants to buy wireless broadband from the precise supplier whose access software is preloaded on that machine. But not very often.

Perhaps an argument can be made that the revenue gotten by the PC manufacturer from such deals helps in some small way to control the overall cost of the device. In that sense, there is a consumer benefit. So maybe this is the PC equivalent of advertising. Users might not "like" it, or "want it," but it might help lower the cost of acquiring and using something else (their PC).

Still, it's hard to imagine that preloading broadband wireless for a single provider can be done on a wide-enough scale to produce incrementally-significant customer additions.

The way this could work, though, is to do the reverse: sell a cheap device that actually is configured to use one broadband access provider. Consumers can do the math. If the value of getting a general-purpose computing device is low enough, and the price is lock in to one broadband access supplier, some buyers will do so.

YouTube, Video Site Visits Double

It isn't your imagination: more people are going to YouTube and other video sites than did a year ago. So say researchers at the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

Nearly half of online adults now say they have visited such sites. On a typical day at the end of 2007, the share of Internet users going to video sites was nearly twice as large as it had been at the end of 2006.

About 48 percent of surveyed Internet users say they have visited a video-sharing site such as YouTube. A year ago, in December 2006, 33 percent of internet users said they had ever visited such sites. So year-over-year growth was 45 percent.

About 15 percent of respondents said they had used a video-sharing site “yesterday". A year ago, just eight percent said they had visited such a site “yesterday.” So, on an average day, the number of users of video sites nearly doubled from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007.

Almost Safe for Consumers to Buy HD DVDs

Some suppliers might like format wars, at least to the extent it allows them to gain some business advantage in licensing streams. Consumers generally lose when they buy devices and software built around the losing standard.

Just days ago Warner Bros. threw its weight behind the Blu-ray standard. Now Daily Variety says Universal's commitment to backing HD DVD exclusively also has ended.

Paramount, one of the few remaining majors to release content in the rival HD DVD format, apparently has an escape clause in its HD DVD contract allowing it to release content on Blu-ray now that Warner Bros. has decided to back that format exclusively.

Retailers such as Best Buy and Blockbuster Video now will contribute to the Blu-ray trend. If retailers think Blu-ray is the future, they aren't likely to devote much shelf space to HD DVD players or content.

Even Apple will be shipping Macs with Blu-ray drives. So the good news for buyers of DVD players is that it is just about drop-dead safe to go buy a high-definition player.

You can do your own survey. Visit a Blockbuster and compare the space devoted to content in Blu-ray rather than HD DVD.

A Tip on WiMAX Direction

If analysts at In-Stat are right, and the WiMAX chipset market is driven primarily by embedded Mobile WiMAX chips in mobile PCs through 2012, we might conclude that some suppliers are betting WiMAX will be about mobile and tethered PCs, much more than dual-mode cellular/WiMAX handsets, at least for the foreseeable future.

In that view, WiMAX is, at least initially, a replacement service for cable modems, DSL and 3G data cards, rather than a platform for newer services. There's nothing wrong with approaching a possibly-new market by snagging revenues for legacy applications. What will be interesting is to see whether WiMAX can develop into something more than a 3G network with more bandwidth.

To be sure, there are several potential "disruptions" here. There is the "open networks" challenge, the possibility of disruptively-lower prices, opening up Web connections for whole new classes of devices as well as the potential creation of a mobile-Web-optmized network for the first time.

“The total WiMAX user terminal chipset market will reach almost $500 million in 2012, growing from $27 million in 2007,” says Gemma Tedesco, In-Stat analyst. “Furthermore, WiMAX base station semiconductor revenues are expected to be approximately $1.4 billion in 2012, compared to $130 million in 2007.”

Verizon Launches 7 Mbps Service

Verizon has launched a new 7 Mbps broadband access service availabe in about 400 Verizon-served communities. Prices begin at $39.99 for contract plans. Verizon will expand the program into more communities throughout the year.

Verizon Shifts to GPON

Verizon has begun installing Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) optoelectronics as part of its FiOS deployments in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Texas. GPON will replace the former broadband passive optical network (BPON) technology Verizon has been using up to this point. Users won't notice anything different, at least at first.

In years to come, they well might. BPON delivers 622 Mbps to 32 potential users in the downstream, with a shared 155 Mbps in the upstream.
GPON supports 2.4Gbps downstream and 1.2Gbps upstream that can be shared among 32 to 64 users. Basically, that means a downstream bandwidth increase of four times and an upstream improvement of eight times.

At some level, GPON is a logical and improved enhancement to BPON technology, and its price now is closer to BPON than was the case some years ago. At another level, the move is protection against the cable industry's upcoming upgrade to Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification 3.0, which will support channel bonding and shared downstream bandwidth as high as 160 Mbps.

Depending on customer take rates, the FiOS GPON network can support much more bandwidth that DOCSIS 3.0, absent some sort of major network upgrade by a cable operator.

So long as on-demand techniques are used to deliver video, most of the additional bandwidth can be allocated for other data-focused uses. As this chart from the IEEE shows, after video, it is data demand which grows most.

Xohm: Where's the Beef?

Sprint Nextel says it will launch it Xohm WiMAX service at the end of April. Associated Press also reports that Xohm will not use subsidized handsets, will offer daily, weekly, monthly and longer-term contracts. In an attempt to differentiate itself from simple "access" services, Xohm will feature location-based services tied to advertising and search and portal services created by Google.

But Xohm will have to do more than that. As the first widespread network created expressly for broadband-based services, Xohm will be an early test of the economics of networks anchored on broadband access revenues rather than voice. And that is going to be a challenge in the early going. By definition, Xohm is soft launching service in three markets with established cable modem and Digital Subscriber Line service.

Chicago, Washington D.C and Baltimore, to be specific. Other markets are supposed to be added in April. The point is, if the offering is positioned as a terrestrial broadband substitute, how big is the opportunity? Conversely, if Xohm is positioned as a mobile broadband alternative to existing third generation services, are location services enough of a differentiating factor?

It is conceivable that customers will defect to Xohm for prosaic reasons: no-contract service or lower prices, for example.While helpful, that is hardly an objective requiring construction of an entirely-new network. Many years ago, when new blocks of spectrum were auctioned off for what was then called "personal communication services," the thinking was that the spectrum would be used to create new services, used in new ways. A prime example was a sort of quasi-cordless, quasi-cellular service that offered call handoff when the user moved at pedestrian speeds, but wouldn't be usable at freeway-driving speeds.

What happened is that all that spectrum wound up being used as the basis for CDMA and GSM-based 3G mobile networks instead. New services were created, of course, but not the ones everybody expected. People thought the access mode would be the difference. Instead, it was text messaging and mobile email that wound up driving new service revenues.

It is conceivable that some new use mode will develop for WiMAX networks, based on game platforms or media devices rather than phones, for example. The issue then will be about whether the cost of building and operating the network, and securing the spectrum, can support the revenue generated by the new use cases. It's not going to be easy.
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FCC to Look at Traffic Shaping

The Associated Press says the Federal Communications Commission will investigate complaints that Comcast Corp. actively interferes with Internet traffic as its subscribers try to share files online.

This should be very interesting. One one hand, there's an issue about packet blocking. On the other hand there is an issue of exposure to copyright law, since much peer-to-peer traffic that Comcast and others appear to be blocking infringes copyright laws.

A coalition of consumer groups and legal scholars asked the agency in November to stop Comcast from discriminating against certain types of data. Two groups also asked the FCC to fine Comcast at a rate of $195,000 for every affected subscriber.

It is possible there are two intertwined issues here: packet blocking and copyright violations. The former might be technologically necessary to prevent the latter.

Satellite Broadband Gets Eutelsat, ViaSat Boost

French satellite operators Eutelsat SA and U.S.-based ViaSat want to leapfrog current and emerging generations of satellite-based broadband, and are putting money behind the effort, according to the Wall Street Journal.

To put the effort into perspective, the ViaSat satellite will have bandwidth exceeding the combined signal capacity of nearly all the two-way commercial communications satellites serving North America, ViaSat calculates. Basically, the two new satellites will offer price-per-bit performance an order of magnitude better than the advanced satellites in orbit today.

For its part, Eutelsat's one new advanced satellite will have a capacity equal to Eutelsat's entire 24-satellite existing fleet.

Each company has committed to separately build and launch a satellite with 10 to 15 times greater capacity than the most-advanced birds already in orbit. The companies say they plan to share some marketing and capital expenditures in securing wholesale customers.

Eutelsat hopes to launch its satellite in 2010, with ViaSat scheduled about a year later. In the U.S., the Internet connections are expected to cost between $49 and $79 a month.

Business Fiber: Better, Not Good

By some measures, business customers have better fiber access than they used to. By other measures, most businesses still do not. One has to be in a building with enough private line potential to support something on the order of four T1 circuits, says McLeodUSA CEO Royce Holland. And as recent data from service providers such as XO Communications shows, most business customers are not in those buildings.

In fact, despite strenuous efforts by all sorts of companies that make a living providing fiber-based services to business customers, lower T1 prices over the last decade arguably have made the "fiber to building" business case tougher. Lower T1 prices obviously reduce the amount of recurring revenue any provider can hope to make from a single site.

The countervailing trend is higher demand for optical services such as Ethernet. Though the cost of hardware has declined over the last 10 years, the cost of installation and construction has not, and that's most of the cost.

Skype Hits 11 Million Concurrent Users

Whatever concerns eBay might have about Skype's ability to attract new users, Skype recently hit the 11 million concurrent users level, after passing the he 10 million user milestone was passed 83 days ago on October 17, 2007. Since 2006, there has been concern about some slackening of the pace of new user additions and at least momentary dips in Skype usage. Concurrent usage arguably is a better metric than client downloads, and that growth rate seems consistent.

Robust Enterprise Social Networking

If ChangeWave Research is correct, wikis, blogs and social networking are being adopted by corporations at an explosive rate.

ChangeWave Research recently surveyed 2,081 companies and found 24 percent already using social software, while eight percent say they will start using it within a year. Wikis apparently are used by 20 percent of respondents, blogs by 18 percent, social networking by 15 percent, says Joshua Levine, ChangeWave researcher.

While current users find wikis to be most useful, future adopters think blogs (26 percent) and social networks (21 percent) will be most beneficial.

About 39 percent report their company is very or somewhat willing to use Web 2.0 social software for business purposes.

Current users say they use social networking to improve internal employee collaboration as well as to increase internal efficiency and productivity.

Users who say their firms will be adopting social networking also agree about the merits of internal communications, but also are more focused on using the tools to
improve external customer service and support, increase brand awareness and loyalty
and drive sales of products and services.

at&t, Telefonica Eyeing Targets?

Apparently, at&t wants to buy a stake in the mobile arm of state-controlled phone firm Telekom Malaysia , a Malaysian newspaper has reported.

Telekom Malaysia is spinning off its mobile business into a separately listed firm, TM International, which will include its domestic Celcom unit and operations in nine other countries, including India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Separately, there is talk of Vodafone or Best Buy buying Carphone Warehouse. There also are rumors that KPN is being eyed by Telefonica (KPN denies talks are underway).

Given the success Western European mobile providers are having in Eastern Europe and elsewhere, we might make one observation: though wireless has underpinned carrier revenue growth over the past several years, internal growth now is slowing sharply, meaning growth will have to be sought "out of territory."

Typically, when that sort of situation develops, it is a clear sign that internal growth prospects are limited.

Less Focus on Landlines?

Once upon a time, telecom analysts tracked the volume of a carrier's access lines in service, applied a revenue per line metric, and got pretty close to that carrier's annual revenue. No longer.

Given the mutltiple lines of business and products, if anything gets tracked as a more accurate predicator of how a carrier is doing, it is revenue-generating units.

Keep in mind that most tier one "telco" service providers get something on the order of 20 percent of revenue from consumer landlines these days. To be be sure, lines still are important cash flow generators, but no longer are driving growth.

That honor is reserved for mobile and broadband products. Businesses are a different matter, but for consumers, most of whom are equipped with wireless phones in any case, there just are more questions every day about why to keep a wireline circuit.

Some analysts predict that, by 2010 (two more years) wireless-only households should rise to 27 percent, from at least 13 percent in 2007, according to the Pew Internet & American Life Project. Other analysts think the figures already are higher, in the 17 percent range.

Packet 8 Mobile VoIP Trial Program Launched

8x8, provider of Packet8 voice and video services, has launched a no-obligation, no-fee trial program that lets customers of any U.S. based wireless carrier experience the dialing simplicity and call quality of the Packet8 MobileTalk mobile VoIP international calling service at no charge.

Wireless customers can download the MobileTalk application onto their mobile device and use the service at no charge until a total of $2.00 in per minute fees is reached. Packet8 MobileTalk service offers rates of $.02 to $.05 per minute for most locations in Europe and Asia.

Users can dial calls directly and natively from their mobile handset, contact list or speed dial directory without the additional keystrokes required by calling card and other reduced rate international calling services. Once the destination number is dialed or selected, the Packet8 MobileTalk software application identifies the international prefix being called and redirects the call to a local Packet8 network access number.

Over 450 Windows, Palm, RIM and Symbian-based mobile phone models, including the entire family of Blackberry phones running version 4.0 of the operating system and above and 25 Nokia models running the Symbian OS, are supported by the Packet8 MobileTalk service.

The plan requires a one-time $9.99 activation fee for the service and a monthly fee of $9.99 for non-Packet 8 subscribers.

Mobile VoIP is growing, no doubt, as shown by this Sound Track Partners forecast.