Cable's "Mobile" Strategy is Mostly "Untethered"

Time Warner Cable is a partner with Comcast, Cablevision, Cox Communications and Bright House Networks in a public hotspot network of about 50,000 locations, and now is adding WeFi service as well. Time Warner invested in WeFi early in 2012. 

Though cable operators have not been able to really figure out how to create a big mobile communications business, the current effort aims to extend use of fixed connections inside and outside the Time Warner network footprint. 

Untethered communications, inside or outside the network footprint, is part of the strategy. In fact, in many cases a mobile phone uses a Wi-Fi connection more than the mobile network.

Big Data Should be About "People"

Big data can be an important tool for understanding and changing the world. 

How Are People Using Tablets?

"Post-PC" is Only Partly About "Devices"

Most would credit Steve Jobs, former Apple CEO, for popularizing the phrase "post-PC." Precisely what that means will continue to be debated for at least a while. But most would probably agree that the phrase suggests a growing use of computing appliances other than a PC, and reliance on cloud-based apps and services more than locally-resident software. 

On the other hand, post-PC also can mean that many different appliances might converge on a common operating system core and end user look and feel. Consider Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. 

Microsoft wants to unify Windows Phone devices, Windows 8 tablets and PCs, and its Xbox game console,  PCWorld argues. 

Some of us would argue it is nearly impossible to separate mobility (with the key location awareness) from cloud computing, though. Others might that is part of a growing shift to "ubiquitous" computing as well, where computing is not a "destination" activity tied to a desk.

Part of the post-PC reality is that the cloud increasingly provides storage and processing for a wide range of appliances that can be highly distributed and much cheaper than PC appliances have been in the past. 

It also is true that what people want to do with computers has changed. In October 2012 about 55 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers used  downloaded apps,  while 53 percent used a browser. About 39 percent used social networking apps, 34 percent played games and 29 percent listened to music, according to comScore .

None of that would surprise much of anybody. What might be more unexpected is that consumption profiles of PC and mobile applications is so similar.

In 2011, the majority of all mobile phone owners consumed mobile media on their smart phones and tablet devices, marking an important milestone in the evolution of mobile from primarily a communication device to a content consumption tool.

In December 2011, 8.2 percent of all web page views occurred on devices other than PCs, for example, with mobile devices accounting for 5.2 percent of traffic, tablets driving 2.5 percent, according to the latest Nielsen Cross-Platform Report.

One of Google’s studies of tablet use over a two-week period, which had users recording every occasion that they used their tablet, shows that tablets really are not PCs, any more than smart phones are used in the same way that PCs are used.

Most consumers use their tablets for fun, entertainment and relaxation while they use their desktop computer or laptop for work, Google User Experience Researchers Jenny Gove and John Webb say. About 91 percent of the time that people spend on their tablet devices is for personal rather than work related activities.

And, as it turns out, when a consumer gets a tablet,  they quickly migrate many of their entertainment activities from laptops and smart phones to this new device.

The most frequent tablet activities are checking email, playing games and social networking. The study also found that people are doing more activities in shorter bursts on weekdays (social networking, email) while engaging in longer usage sessions on weekends (watching videos/TV/movies).

Tablets are multi-tasking devices with at least 42 percent of activities occurring while doing another task or engaging with another entertainment medium. Tablets aren’t PCs

As it turns out, lots of things people can do on PCs don’t “need” to be done on PCs. Content consumption, email and other communications actually represent most of what many business users really “have to do” on a PC.

So one reason we are in a "post-PC" era is that content consumption now has become perhaps the most salient activity people want to engage in, on a computing appliance. Diverse screen form factors are important. Cloud platforms are critical. Mobile Internet access is key. 

But what people want to do on a "computer" is the foundation. In an era where content consumption is paramount, a PC is not always the "right" or "preferred" or "only" appliance.

Why Governments Should Not Control the Internet

How hard is it to disconnect a country from the Internet, really? Not so hard, in many countries, says Renesys. 

"In some countries, international access to data and telecommunications services is heavily regulated" and "there may be only one or two companies who hold official licenses to carry voice and Internet traffic to and from the outside world, and they are required by law to mediate access for everyone else," Renesys says.

"Under those circumstances, it's almost trivial for a government to issue an order that would take down the Internet,' Renesys says. 

Unintended Consequences of Regulator Policy Decisions

Telecom policy makers always face tough choices when designing national communications policies. Because “for every public policy there is a corresponding private interest,” no single set of policies will universally be seen as “fair.” What helps big carriers often hurts smaller carriers. What favors mobile operators can disadvantage fixed network providers.

And, even where rules only affect a single provider, such as LightSquared or Dish Network, the affected providers might not think government rules are especially fair. And there always is a risk of unintended consequences, even when a policy is well intentioned.

Something like that, with price implications for lighter mobile data users, arguably has happened as an unintended result of an apparently unrelated decsion by the Federal Communications Commission regarding Verizon’s purchase of 700-MHz spectrum.

The FCC decided that Verizon was violating the “open access” rules of the 700 MHz spectrum licenses it purchased in 2008 by charging customers an additional $20 per month to tether their smartphones to other devices.

Verizon paid the fine and allowed tethering on all new data plans. Perhaps it is not a major issue, but one result of that ruling is that Verizon Wireless essentially has abandoned the “light user” part of the postpaid mobile broadband market, according to the Technology Policy Institute.

Basically, Verizon and T-Mobile USA offered lighter users the more-expensive data plans, before the decision. Afterwards, Verizon became the highest-priced alternative for light data users.

You might argue that the changes are completely coincidental. You might argue the changes do not reshape the market. 

But it is possible to argue that a decision ostensibly related to “open access” caused the leading mobile service provider to change its retail packaging in ways that made it the sole “high price” provider in the market where it had been within $5 to $10 a month of all the other leading providers. 

That's an unintended consequence, you might argue.

Search Can Predict Smart Phone Launch Success

Google says search predicts smart phone sales with over 90 percent accuracy.

In its "2012 Smartphone Launch Predictor" study, Google found that an extra 1,000 news stories in the weeks before launch will likely lead to a nine percent boost in smartphone sales.

About 52 percent of purchase-related searches occur before launch (and over one third of general smartphone searches).

An extra 25,000 mobile searches will likely increase smartphone sales 17 percent. One month after launch, those searches boost sales 20 percent.

Tablets a Nightmare for Microsoft?

Are tablets potentially a nightmare for Microsoft and other leaders in the PC market? Some think that could happen. The indicators include a shift of buyer spending towards tablets, and away from PCs.

At work, there is a trend of workers substituting tablets, smart phones and Apple PCs for Windows machines. Office suites can be sourced online, at free or low costs. Developer attention is shifting to iOS and Android.

And then there are the questions about Windows 8 and Windows Phone. Those fears might be overblown. But the data points seem to suggest there is legitimate danger. We will know more as Windows 8 rolls out, and as Windows Phone efforts intensify in 2013. 

Digital Wallet Value Proposition Might be Clearer for Online Payments

New markets often do not develop as proponents originally envisioned, at least in part because end users and customers often decide that the value represented by an innovation is different than what was intended by the developers. At least where it comes to products or services they never have seen before, people are unpredictable. 

That might also be true for "mobile wallets" and "digital wallets," which generally are seen as innovations for retail checkout and shopping. But it might turn out that people find more value for online shopping and checkout. 

Today’s consumer types in an average of 44 fields when shopping online, and V.me gets you down to five or six, Visa says. 

Smart Phone Becomes “Primary” Screen for Teenagers, for First Time

Once upon a time, the movie theater was the primary content consumption screen, followed by the television. These days, a smart phone, tablet or PC increasingly is likely to have become the primary media consumption screen for a significant percentage of users, a study by Orange suggests.

The “Orange Exposure 2012/2013” study shows a  stark contrast in mobile media habits between teenagers and adults, for example.

For teenagers, the mobile phone is the primary screen, for the first time, not the TV or PC.

Also, adults are using multiple screens more interchangeably than ever before, choosing the most suitable screen for any particular situation, Orange says.

In the United Kingdom, 83 percent of teenagers have a smart phone and 95 percent have one in Spain. In addition, 92 percent of teenagers in the United Kingdom say mobile is a “way to always have a media device at hand” and 55 per cent of teenagers in the UK say that they prefer their mobile over other screens.

Consumers also are increasingly using their mobile or tablet to replicate the same experience on their PC, about  62 percent of consumers in the United Kingdom agree. Consumers also are multitasking. Some 90 percent of consumers access the internet at the same time as watching TV,  in the United Kingdom. 

es the tablet device is designed to be used as a content consumption device.

At the same time as interchangeable usage is occurring, larger screens on smart phones are making accessing multimedia easier, and “smaller” sized tablets are increasing their portability. In Spain, 16 percent of tablet owners also own the more portable Samsung Galaxy Tab, for example.

The percentage of people primarily accessing mobile media ‘out and about’ on both their mobile and tablet has significantly increased across all markets.

In the United Kingdom 58 percent of respondents say they use their devices to access content and media while out and about.

Tablet use to access content and media “out and about” has grown from 11 percent of users in 2011 to 21 percent in 2012 in the United Kingdom.

And though some would say tablets are not a substitute for a PC, about 75 percent of tablet media users want to “find the same things on their tablet as on their PC,” the study also found. That doesn’t mean people believe they can “work” on a tablet in the same way as on a PC.

But where it comes to content and information, they do expect they will be able to consume all the same content they would expect to get on a PC.

Tablet devices arguably also are used as commerce platforms. Some 62 percent of tablet users have used their tablet to pay, redeem or reserve something over the last six months.  

Some 58 percent of tablet users paid for something online. The point is that tablets and smart phones are changing user behavior.

Freemium Apps Grow Google Play Revenue 350% in 2012

Freemium app revenues in both iOS and Google Play stores have, over the last two years,  more than quadrupled, for both Google Play and the Apple Store. 

In 2012, global "freemium" app revenues on Google Play have grown 3.5 times over 2011, App Annie says, Those revenues include content or virtual goods sales inside the free to use apps and advertising. 

Premium revenues (paid apps)  for both app stores remained relatively flat in 2011 and 2012. 

Click to enlarge

Value and Data Consumption are Not Closely Correlated, for Smart Phone Users

Though it is helpful in some ways to know how much total bandwidth is consumed from fixed devices, on fixed networks, compared to mobile devices on mobile networks, volume of data is not a reasonable proxy for value.

The reason is that the value of the mobile applications is very high, even if total consumed bandwidth is relatively low. And it appears the value of many different Internet applications is one reason so many people have embraced smart phones.

On the other hand, few of the popular activities really consume all that much bandwidth, and many of the activities have a real-time focus. The value comes largely from the context, the ability to get information immediately and use it to direct one's activities.

Chicago Issues RFI for Municipal Wi-Fi

The City of Chicago has issued a request for information for potential bidders on a new municipal Wi-Fi service that would serve public areas such as parks, and areas around research institutions, Chicago Business reports.  

The network does not appear to aim at providing service to residential consumers in the manner of high-speed access typically provided by cable companies and telephone companies, but is more a spot deployment more reminiscent of a competitive local exchange carrier network. 

At least so far, similar efforts have generally proven unworkable. 

Mobile Capital Investment Will Shift to Small Cells, but When?

Joe Madden of Mobile Experts thinks the global mobile service provider industry is about to enter a period where capital investment shifts to smaller cells. To be sure, 2012 seemed to see a waning of capital investment, with 12 percent lower RF transceiver shipments than 2011.

Madden says that fits a pattern of investment in transmission facilities that has been typical of second generation and third generation networks.

He calls the pattern a "two hump camel.” The first hump reflects the initial build. About four years later, those initial systems are upgraded with additional radio capacity and additional towers, and the second "hump" begins.

Of course, many service providers globally are on the cusp of major investments for Long Term Evolution. But global economic uncertainty appears to be causing a delay in capital investment, either in the form of additional 3G base stations or new LTE base stations, Madden argues.


The next big upsurge in investment will occur about 2014 or 2015, when consumers start to complain about performance. At that point, mobile service providers will turn to small cells for their 3G and LTE networks. Madden predicts more than nine million carrier-grade capacity small cells will therefore be deployed during 2017.

By 2017, roughly $1 billion worth of small cell infrastructure gear will be sold globally, Mobile Experts predicts.


Madden is not as optimistic as some about the use of carrier Wi-Fi to offload traffic. Softbank in Japan has tested the offload potential of dense Wi-Fi deployments and apparently has concluded that less than 25 percent of mobile data traffic can be offloaded to public Wi-Fi in the long term.

Those estimates correspond with figures Boingo suggests. Boingo believes about 22 percent of mobile traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi by about 2016.

Others might disagree. Cisco analysts say as much as 30 percent of mobile traffic could occur on Wi-Fi networks. And analysts at Juniper Research think more than 60 percent of mobile device traffic could be offloaded to Wi-Fi means by about 2015.

Others say studies show as much as 70 percent of smart phone traffic uses a Wi-Fi connection.


By 2017, Ericsson expects each macro base station in urban areas will be supplemented by about three small cells small cells.

Today, there are about five million macro base stations deployed worldwide and those in metro areas account for about 15 percent of the total, or about 750,000. That suggests a total of perhaps 2.25 million small cells.

It always is difficult to predict the deployment of small cells because that category sometimes includes virtually all cell sites smaller than a macrocell, including potentially large numbers of consumer grade units used inside homes or offices, plus larger small cells deployed as part of the public mobile network.

Even a casual conversation about the definition of a "small cell" will quickly lead to a series of necessary qualifications and a "fuzzy" answer. Pressed for a concise answer, many observers might point out that a "small cell" approach meaningfully could include every radio installation smaller than a traditional cellular macrocell.

And that's quite a lot of terrain. It includes "carrier" cell sites of 2-kilometer radius, "pico" cells of  perhaps 200 meters, but also customer-owned "femto" cells that cover indoor areas of perhaps 50 meters, and use the customer's own "backhaul" or "access," not a carrier-supplied link.

Those are some reasons why the "heterogeneous network" terminology now has become commonplace.  Future mobile networks will use a variety of cell types, with different capital investment parameters and coverage areas.

Future networks also might make much more direct use of both carrier-supplied and customer-supplied backhaul. A carrier public Wi-Fi hotspot might use a carrier-supplied access connection, while, on an informal basis, most smart phone customers use their own fixed network connections, with their devices connected to in-home or in-building Wi-Fi, in place of any of the mobile cell site types.

Without making too much of the development, "heterogeneous" implies a mix of carrier and consumer-supplied radio and backhaul network resources; a range of management options and quality of service mechanisms.

One might also say that heterogenous networks and customer offloading to Wi-Fi also represent an unparalleled and new form of asset sharing. Whether by formal contract or simply informal mechanisms, customers are using a mix of carrier and "owned" access to support their "untethered" access requirements.

While some entrepreneurs continue to work at creating whole networks using end user supplied access and radio assets, the heterogeneous network does the same thing, essentially. In a broad sense, users and their devices are supported by a mix of carrier-owned and customer-owned networks, both "mobile" and "fixed," using mobile air interfaces and simple Wi-Fi.

The point is that "small cells" are more than a technology. They are part of a shift to more use of "shared" networks in a real sense.

Battery Life, Not Bandwidth, Sometimes is the Key Mobile Limitation

The average power consumption for a 10-minute CDMA circuit-switched call in a recent test was about half that of a 4G Long Term Evolution call. That will get better over time, but right now, it appears that LTE voice calls are going to drain batteries about twice as fast as talking using CDMA networks. 

A 10-minute call using CDMA consumed 680 milliwatts (mW) while the average consumption for a VoLTE call of the same duration was 1358 mW. 

Spirent estimated that on a full charge, its test smartphone could support 502.6 minutes of talk time using CDMA only, but the same charge would only deliver 251.8 minutes of talk time using VoIP on the 4G network. And that’s with all other data communications turned off. And how often do users turn off unneeded radios?