Mobile services are sold, provisioned and maintained by one organization, fixed services often by another. The features of each service are distinct in some ways and those features are priced differently. Business success is tracked separately.
From the standpoint of an end user, customer, application or device supplier, the distinction is blurring, though. Most of today’s computing devices can use a range of connections, and increasingly it is Wi-Fi that is the common access capability.
Whether one looks at smart phones, tablets or PCs, “access” typically is “untethered,” without the need of a cable connecting to a network. To be sure, mobile devices sometimes are used while a customer is actually “moving” about. But, most often, that is true of voice or messaging, with some light use of data services.
By volume, though, most use of Internet services and apps is conducted while users are stationary. And most of that usage happens inside the home or at the office, not while people are out and about.
The long term implications are not yet clear. But there already are glimmerings of how the value of Wi-Fi is changing mobile executive thinking. At a very basic level, mobile network executives wish to encourage their mobile users to offload traffic to the Wi-Fi (fixed) networks.
Fixed network executives want to create Wi-Fi capabilities for their fixed Internet access customers, adding a “nomadic” feature to a fixed location service.
Increasingly, small cell sites serving high-density urban locations will be equipped both with mobile and Wi-Fi radios, allowing users access to either access mode.
Some entrepreneurs are creating “mobile” services that default first to Wi-Fi, then use the mobile network only if Wi-Fi access is not possible.
Consumers already have embraced Wi-Fi as a primary access model for smart phone and tablet use, if only to save money on their mobile data plan charges.
A study conducted by Cisco of more than a thousand U.S. mobile users suggests that the amount of Wi-Fi usage each day is so prevalent that smart phone, tablet and e-reader device usage now is more “nomadic” than mobile; more untethered than mobile; less “on the move” than just “unplugged.”
What’s more, the Cisco survey also suggests 25 percent of users “see no difference” between the mobile and Wi-Fi networks. The implied 75 percent of users who do see differences perhaps is the measure of the importance of voice communications and quick Internet operations or use of social networks and other communications apps.
At some point, such trends could lead to some specialized revenue models within the broader mobile and untethered access business, focusing purely on “data connections,” not mobile voice, much as the Wi-Fi hotspot business has been a specialized “data access” service.
That could ultimately be more important in developing regions where full mobile access is relatively expensive and bandwidth constrained, and might well rely on use of unlicensed spectrum and well as “self organizing” network nodes of some sort.
By some estimates, for example, about 90 percent of all tablets sold use Wi-Fi-only connections, meaning those devices are used untethered, but not in fully-mobile mode.
In many ways, that underscores the enduring value of a fixed network connection, albeit with a Wi-Fi tail. In other words, “fixed” and “mobile” networks are both ways to get access to the Internet from an untethered computing appliance. And fixed networks always will have a price per bit advantage over the mobile networks.
On the other hand, a shift of end user demand to “broadband access” will require key shifts of fixed network business models. With voice services receding, new revenue sources will be required, and it likely also will be necessary to further pare operating costs.
A new analysis by NPD illustates the widespread use of Wi-Fi access by users of Android smart phones. In fact, Android device users on Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS networks consume more data using Wi-Fi than they do on the mobile networks.
In some cases, as on the AT&T network, about 80 percent of all consumption is on a Wi-Fi network. Verizon Android users consume nearly two thirds of their data on a Wi-Fi network.
The point is that data consumed on a mobile data plan can represent far less than half, and in some cases as little as 20 percent, of all data used on a smart phone
A separate study conducted by Ipsos suggests the typical employed person, in a wide range of countries, is connected to the Internet nearly 10 hours a day, often by Wi-Fi, with mobile devices used inside the home about 2.5 hours a day, as well. The detailed tables are here.
All consumers use their mobile devices at home, the Cisco study found, averaging more than 2.5 hours of usage in a typical day, more than double the time that “mobile” devices are used “on the go,” which is about half an hour a day, the study also found.
A quarter of consumers surveyed by Cisco “see no difference” between the mobile and Wi-Fi networks. Consumers consider Wi-Fi easier to use and more reliable than mobile.
“We may be on the verge of a “New Mobile” paradigm, one in which Wi-Fi and mobile networks are seamlessly integrated and indistinguishable in the mobile user’s mind,” the Cisco study says.
Almost 60 percent of consumers were “somewhat” or “very” interested in a proposed offer that provides unlimited data across combined access networks for a flat monthly fee.
The survey conducted by Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) suggests
mobile users are connecting their devices predominantly using Wi-Fi. In fact, most mobile users are connecting their devices using Wi-Fi at some point, including 70 percent of smart phone owners.
About 50 percent of tablets, laptops, and e-readers are connecting exclusively through Wi-Fi. Although 30 percent of smartphone owners are connected only using the mobile network, the remaining 70 percent are supplementing mobile connectivity with Wi-Fi, the Cisco study suggests.
In fact, on average, smart phone users use Wi-Fi a third of the time to connect their devices to the Internet.
With the exception of smart phones, users would prefer to connect all of their devices using Wi-Fi. More than 80 percent of tablet, laptop, and e-reader owners either prefer Wi-Fi to mobile access or have no preference.
Just over half of smart phone owners would prefer to use Wi-Fi, or are ambivalent about the two access networks.
If given a choice between access networks, mobile users choose Wi-Fi over mobile across all network attributes, with the obvious exception of coverage. That leads Cisco researchers to conclude that “we may be on the verge of a ‘New Mobile’ paradigm, one in which Wi-Fi and mobile networks are seamlessly integrated and indistinguishable in the mobile user’s mind.”
Network Connectivity Type (by Time)
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2012
It might not be clear for some time what the full ramifications will be. But it might not be unreasonable to argue that the value of Wi-Fi access is beginning to rival that of “mobile” access in new ways.
That is not to say that Wi-Fi access is a full substitute for mobile access. Still, it is hard to ignore the conclusion that Wi-Fi now satisfies a wider range of use cases than once was the case.
In that sense, “untethered” access is emerging as a key feature of local distribution networks. Among other implications, we should expect to see more consumers relying on Wi-Fi, compared to the “mobile network,” for a wider range of applications, in a wider range of settings.
The point is that, for a growing range of computing appliances and applications, the point of all networks is support of devices and experiences consumed in an untethered mode. Full mobile access remains important for many apps. But where it comes to Internet apps, untethered access is most significant.
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