Google to Sell Touchscreen Devices Using Chrome in 2013

Touchscreen notebooks based on Chrome and presumably built by a third party will be sold by Google sometime in 2013. 

Some may wonder why Google does not move immediately to unify Android and Chrome environments, instead of supporting two environments, one for PCs and the other for smart phones and tablets. 

In fact, Google executives have said in the past that Android and Chrome will, at some point, be unified. Obviously Google continues to believe, or at least, the supporters of the two operating system approach within Google continue to believe, that two operating systems are the best solution for now.

That line of reasoning might be that even if the two operating systems eventually are merged, that does not mean such a unification is best attempted now. Perhaps the better approach is to optimize each for the distinct roles of PCs and smart phones and tablets, for the moment.

Cost, simplicity, minimal overhead and speed all could be valid reasons for doing so, at least for the moment. As smart phones morph into larger screen tablets, and PCs morph into smaller screen netbooks, there might come a time when a new sort of device logically is the place to create one single operating system. 

But, for the moment, Google might be betting it is better off to optimize the smart phone and notebook environments for the use cases and interfaces people tend to expect in each domain, and then only gradually unify the approaches as users begin to change their interface preferences, if in fact that happens. 

Some of us would continue to argue that the user interface for a content creation and work task is quite distinct from a content consumption application. As a rational engineer would not simply duplicate unneeded functionality across different device families, neither would a rational engineer try to stretch the multi-function, multi-device approach too far, too fast. That tends to lead to devices that aren't the best in either domain. 

Myanmar's Telecom "Big Bang" is Coming

Myanmar says it has gotten statements of interest from 91 companies interested in one of two initial new communications licenses to be issued by Myanmar.

The new national licenses do not appear to specify which network technologies can be used to build the new networks. But most observers would tend to agree that mobile will be the only logical way to build new networks from scratch, and that Long Term Evolution 4G mobile networks will be the logical choice.

It appears that a total of four licenses will ultimately be issued, two to domestic firms and two to foreign firms.

Myanmar, where nine percent of the population has a mobile phone, wants to boost telecom communication availablitiy to as much as 80 percent of the country by 2016.

Myanmar is among the countries in Asia with the least availability of communications services. Cambodia has a services penetration rate of 70 percent, Laos 87 percent and Thailand more than 100 percent.

U.K. LTE Auction: Disruptive or Not?

The U.K. Long Term Evolution spectrum auction is over, and the results might surprise some observers. Some had thought there would only be enough spectrum for three winners of the 800 MHz spectrum, a result that would have put one of the leading four U.K. service providers at a disadvantage.

Instead, not only did all four leading providers win 800 MHz spectrum, but BT is getting back into the mobile business as a spectrum-owning, facilities-based provider, using the 2.6 GHz band. 

As it turns out, the auctions will not potentially disrupt the existing market in the sense that one of the leading four mobile service providers would have been shut out of 4G spectrum ownership. Instead, all four leading providers will have their own LTE spectrum. 

But BT is getting back into the mobile business on a facilities-based basis. And that could shake up market dynamics. In that sense, the auctions are potentially disruptive.
Also, the winners bid in a rational way, as shown by the total sums the contestants bid to win their licenses. Though some had feared overbidding by the contestants, the auction actually raised less money than the U.K. government had expected, based on the earlier Netherlands auction.

The auction raised £2.34 billion ($3.61 billion) for the government, but some had forecast the auction would raise £3.5 billion.

Though arguably not as good for the government, the license fees will be helpful for the contestants themselves, who did not “overbid” for licenses, as was the case with 3G auctions.

After more than 50 rounds of bidding, Everything Everywhere Ltd, Hutchison 3G UK Ltd, Niche Spectrum Ventures Ltd (a subsidiary of BT Group plc), Telefónica UK Ltd and Vodafone Ltd have all won new Long Term Evolution spectrum in the United Kingdom.

Of those four service providers, only one--Telefónica UK Ltd.--has a “universal service obligation related to its use of coveted 800-MHz spectrum. .

Telefónica U.K. Ltd. must provide a mobile broadband service for indoor reception to at least 98 percent of the U.K. population (expected to cover at least 99 percent when outdoors) and at least 95 percent of the population of each of the U.K. nations – England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales – by the end of 2017 at the latest.

A total of 250 MHz of spectrum was auctioned in two separate bands – 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz. This is equivalent to two-thirds of the radio frequencies currently used by wireless devices such as tablets, smartphones and laptops.

The lower-frequency 800 MHz band is better for widespread mobile coverage, while the 2.6 GHz band offers higher capacity.

Spectrum Results

Winning bidder	Spectrum won	Base price
Everything Everywhere Ltd	2 x 5 MHz of 800 MHz and 2 x 35 MHz of 2.6 GHz	£588,876,000
Hutchison 3G UK Ltd	2 x 5 MHz of 800 MHz	£225,000,000
Niche Spectrum Ventures Ltd (a subsidiary of BT Group plc)	2 x 15 MHz of 2.6 GHz and 1 x 20 MHz of 2.6 GHz (unpaired)	£186,476,000
Telefónica UK Ltd	2 x 10 MHz of 800 MHz (coverage obligation lot)	£550,000,000
Vodafone Ltd	2 x 10 MHz of 800 MHz, 2 x 20 MHz of 2.6 GHz and 1 x 25 MHz of 2.6 GHz (unpaired)	£790,761,000
Total		£2,341,113,000

Mobile and Fixed Broadband Switch Roles, Fast

Something interesting has happened in the broadband access business, namely a huge reversal of market share in just several years. Consider that as recently as 2008, some estimates had fixed broadband connections outnumbering mobile broadband by about a four to one margin.

In 2012, the ratio was reversed, and there were four mobile broadband connections in use for every fixed connection. That sort of change--that fast--does not happen in the communications business very often.

The number of mobile broadband subscribers around the world surpassed that of fixed broadband at the end of 2010, in appears. So mobile broadband went from a 20 percent of market state to a 50 percent of market state in just two years, by some estimates.

After about another three years, mobile broadband grew to represent 80 percent of all broadband connections, by some measures. That is a breathtaking change, in terms of the speed of the change.

By 2015, it is anticipated that there will be 3.1 billion mobile broadband subscribers compared to 848 million fixed broadband subscribers.

Global fixed broadband subscriptions reached around 550 million in 2011, mainly boosted by strong growth of DSL in China.

China is the largest single country in terms of fixed broadband subscriptions with around 140 million, followed by the United States and Japan. DSL represents more than 60 percent of all fixed broadband subscriptions followed by cable and Fiber-To-The-Home/Building (FTTH/B). 

The high growth rate of mobile broadband means that mobile broadband, if it has not already grown to represent 80 percent of total broadband subscriptions, will have done so by 2015 or so.

In emerging markets, mobile broadband is expected to increase from 37 to 79 percent of all broadband subscriptions between 2010 and 2015.

The growth of mobile broadband is not news. But what might be more shocking is the growth rate and the size of the installed base. Rarely does mobile substitution for fixed services happen so fast.

Mobile Payments Might Take a While....

Technology adoption, though we sometimes believe otherwise, can take quite a long time, even for innovations that wind up being quite useful and ubiquitous. Indeed, many popular innovations were adopted relatively quickly, and there is a trend for newer digital products to be adopted very rapidly.

Telephone and electricity took decades to reach significant penetration. The PC, the Internet (Web, at least) and mobile phones were adopted much faster.

Given the current interest in mobile payments, mobile banking and mobile wallets, it might be worth remembering that innovations related to payments and money often take decades to reach significant penetration.

The point is that it would not be unusual for a decade to pass before we even get to the inflection point for adoption, often said to be 10 percent of households. The point is that there is plenty of time for any number of approaches, and competitors, to disappear before we reach 10 percent adoption of households. 

But a corollary might also be true. No contestant not already in the market when the inflection point is reached, likely will be among the leaders when the market reaches 50 percent.

China Now Has More Tablets And Smartphones Than The US

By the end of February 2013, China will have 246 million devices compared to 230 million in the United States,” says mobile analytics company Flurry.

In January, the US and China were within one million devices of one another. Flurry is measuring what it calls “active” devices, which means phones and tablets that are actually connecting to the internet, and not simply devices sold.

NTT DOCOMO’s LTE Subscribers Top 10 Million

NTT DOCOMO says subscribers to "Xi" (pronounced “crossy”), the company’s Long Term Evolution mobile service, surpassed ten million subscribers on February 18, 2012. 

Subscribers reached one million in December 2011 and then topped five million in August 2012. 

DOCOMO also is boosting speeds, adding a 112.5 Mbps downlink, available in 22 cities by March 2013 and more than 50 cities by June 2013. 

LTE base stations offering a 75 Mbps downlink, double the current speed in many locations, will amount to 4,000 by March 2013 and then jump to 10,000 by June 2013. 

DOCOMO also plans to introduce a 150 Mbps downlink service before March 2014.

Vodafone Mobile Charger Could Save Up to $10 Billion Annually in Travel Costs

Perhaps 500 million to 600 million mobile phone users globally have no ready access to electricity sources to recharge their mobile phones and other devices. Another 750 million "struggle" to find ready electrical sources. 

Those users spend perhaps $10 billion annually traveling to places that do have electricity so they can recharge their devices. But Vodafone now is supplying portable chargers across Tanzania, to help solve that problem. 

The chargers can be powered by a bicycle dynamo or a solar panel. In a trial program conducted last year, mobile phone users with the Ready Setcharger spent an average of 14 percent more time on their phone. Vodafone will be selling the chargers at the places uses typically recharge their phones. 

Are Mobile Networks Now Supplements to Fixed Networks?

For a decade and a half, some observers have argued that Wi-Fi networks could emerge as alternatives or replacements for the mobile network. The speculation seemed to peak in 2002 and 2003, when there was lots of speculation about potential community or metro Wi-Fi networks. These days, Wi-Fi generally is seen as a complement to the mobile network.

Some might argue that the mobile network now is secondary, in some cases, to Wi-Fi networks. Cable operators, among some others, hope that is the case, since it would shift the perception of fixed networks.

Olivier Baujard, Deutsche Telekom's chief technology officer, says that in the Netherlands, “mobile” phones actually are used more as untethered devices. where 45 percent of traffic is from home, 45 percent is from work, and only 10 percent is while "walking, driving a car, taking a bus, or things like that." In other words, the mobile network is the access mechanism only about 10 percent of the time.

The ability to substitute Wi-Fi for mobile connections is less robust in areas of lower density, though. Buit Wi-Fi covers most of the places where people are, most of the time. Some 80 percent of the time, people connect to the mobile Internet from their home, office, or other indoor location—all areas that are addressable by Wi-Fi. Cisco says.

The other angle is that most of the apps people use are not specifically tied to “mobile,” on the go use cases. According to Cisco, about 66 percent of all smart phone application use involves email, web browsing, gaming, productivity tools or video calls that do not intrinsically involve a “mobile” use case.   

In addition, 80 percent of people's data traffic comes from just three cell phone towers--one near home, one near work, and one someplace in between, the Deutsche Telekom executive said.

That is one important reason why end user bandwidth consumption has to be measured across all available networks people use, one might argue. For example, U.K. Android users send and receive 78 percent of all their 3G data over WiFi networks, according to Nielsen.

Globally, 33 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded onto the fixed network through Wi-Fi or femtocell in 2012, according to Cisco.  In 2012, without offload, mobile data traffic would have grown 96 percent rather than 70 percent.

But consumption might change as more users switch to the faster fourth generation Long Term Evolution networks. The reason is that faster networks almost always lead to more data consumption.

The implication is that total data consumption cannot be assessed using usage data from any single network.

“Offloading” increases each hour after 5pm, building to a peak between 11pm and midnight, when 90 percent of data transferred uses Wi-Fi.  Conversely, 3G data transfer tends to peak just before the working day starts, again at lunchtime, and finally during the early evening commute when users cannot rely so much on a Wi-Fi connection.
Nielsen Smartphone Analytics.

David Gosen, Nielsen European managing director for digital, said “Wi-Fi is on average three-and-a-half times more dominant than 3G when it comes to delivering mobile internet data services. It peaks around midnight as users gravitate towards social networks."

Samsung Galaxy S III and iPhone 5 Web Usage Finally Equivalent?

The amount of Web traffic generated by Samsung Galaxy S III and iPhone 5 users is a near-50/50 split, with iPhone 5 commanding a slight one percent lead over the Galaxy S III, a new analysis by Chitika suggests. 

This is a change from Chitika's last study in October 2012, where the  iPhone 5 had an eight percentage point lead over the Galaxy S III, Chitika notes. 

That possibly is significant, since earlier studies had suggested that Android users, for whatever reason, used their web browsers less than iOS users. 

Of course, one also has to note that comparing "one retail brand" against all other "competing brands using a specific operating system" is not really an apples to apples comparison. Still, many studies over the last couple of years have shown a big discrepancy between web usage by iPhone and iOS users and people using Android devices. 

Some have argued that Android handsets are somewhat popular within the tech early-adopter market, but that volume adoption is driven by  consumers using low-end, cheaper smart phones.

The implications, some would argue, are that Android represents a less attractive platform for advertising, commerce and other ways of wringing value out of an installed base of smart phone end users.

iPhone users completely dominated Internet-based smart phone activities in a recent study. 

A recent survey of mobile web usage found that 60 percent of mobile web visits came from iOS devices.

A study IBM did of Black Friday online sales showed much the same thing, suggesting that iOS (iPads and iPhones) devices represented 20 percent of Black Friday sales.

Why VoIP is “Disruptive,” iPhone Is Not

In order for a company to disrupt a market, the revenue and cost structure of the incumbents that the company faces must keep them from responding. By that test, VoIP is disruptive, but the Apple iPhone, though a transforming technology, actually is not disruptive, oddly enough. 

Disruption, though sometimes equated with "better products," is more than that. Disruption of a market occurs when an incumbent in the market finds it almost impossible to respond to a disruptive product. 

That can happen because the incumbent's cost structure means the incumbent really cannot serve some customers. In some cases, that means a disrupting company can build a market out of a segment that the market leaders cannot afford to serve.  

People sometimes say a technology is "disruptive." It’s more appropriate to call the business model “disruptive," in that sense. 

Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include:  lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when compared against traditional performance metrics, according to Professor Clayton Christensen. 

Because these lower tiers of the market offer lower gross margins, they are unattractive to other firms moving upward in the market, creating space at the bottom of the market for new disruptive competitors to emerge.

Some examples of disruptive could include:

Disruptor	Disruptee
Personal computers	Mainframe and mini computers
Mini mills	Integrated steel mills
Cellular phones	Fixed line telephony
Community colleges	Four-year colleges
Discount retailers	Full-service department stores
Retail medical clinics	Traditional doctor’s offices

Women Have Less Access to Internet, Everywhere

WhatsApp Adoption Nearly 100% in Spain

According to Mobidia Technology, messaging apps get used hundreds of seconds to nearly a thousand seconds a month, in some markets. 

Separately, Mobidia reports, Wi-Fi usage has tended to decline, where Long Term Evolution is available, suggesting that users tend to rely on 4G more than 3G. And, no surprise, where LTE is used, the total amount of data consumed rises. 

Cable Operators Will Have 11% Share of Small Business Communications Market Share by 2017

source: Atlantic-ACM

U.S. Broadband Access Providers Score Well on Peak Hour Performance

There’s good news for most broadband suppliers in the latest Federal Communications Commission study of peak-hour speeds.

In the September 2012 testing period, ISPs on average delivered 97 percent of advertised download speeds during peak periods, statistically equivalent to the last report, which found that the studied ISPs were able to deliver 96 percent of advertised speeds during peak hours of use.

On average, during peak periods DSL-based services delivered download speeds that were 85 percent of advertised speeds, cable-based services delivered 99 percent of advertised speeds, fiber-to-the-home services delivered 115 percent of advertised speeds, and satellite delivered 137 percent of advertised speeds, the FCC says.

This compares to July 2012 results showing largely the same performance levels: 84 percent for DSL, 99 percent for cable, and 117 percent for fiber. These results suggest that many ISPs are meeting established engineering goals for their respective technologies.

                        Average Peak Period and 24-Hour Sustained Download Speeds
                                                    (% of advertised rate)
On average, satellite services delivered 161 percent, fiber-to-the-home and cable-based services delivered 108 percent, and DSL-based services delivered 99 percent of advertised upload speeds. These compare with figures from the July 2012 Report of 110 percent for cable, 106 percent for fiber, and 103 percent for DSL.

As was the case for the prior July 2012 report, “the majority of ISPs continue to closely meet or exceed the speeds they advertise, although some ISPs fell short of delivering speeds that matched their advertised rates,” the FCC says.

The latest study also shows that the average subscribed speed is now 15.6 Mbps, representing an average annualized speed increase of about 20 percent. Note that this represents an increase of 20 percent in service tiers purchased by end users, not speeds offered by suppliers. The ability to purchase a service is important, but arguably less significant than the fact that people actually buy.

For the first time, satellite broadband is included in the analysis. “In our testing, we found that during peak periods 90 percent of ViaSat consumers received 140 percent or better of the advertised speed of 12 Mbps,” the FCC says. “In addition, both peak and non-peak performance was significantly higher than advertised rates.”

Frontier Communications also substantially improved its performance 13 percent from the last reporting period.

Latency was lowest in fiber-to-the-home services, and this finding was true across all fiber-to-the-home speed tiers.

During the September 2012 testing period, fiber-to-the-home services provided 18 ms round-trip latency on average, while cable-based services averaged 26 ms, and DSL-based services averaged 44 ms. This compares to figures from the April 2012 testing period of 18 ms for fiber, 26 ms for cable and 43 ms for DSL.

But there is an interesting bit of data among the test results. Faster speeds do provide better web browsing experience, but only up to about 10 Mbps. Beyond about 10 Mbps speeds, latency and other factors begin to dominate and limit performance, the FCC says.

That is not to say higher speeds are not useful, though. Higher speeds “may provide significant advantages in a multi-user household or where a consumer is using a specific application that may be able to benefit from a higher speed tier,” the FCC says.

The data also suggest the perhaps 80 percent of “fiber to home” or “cable” users consume 100 Gbytes a month, or less. Some 80 percent of DSL users consume 60 Gbytes or less.

In contrast, perhaps 80 percent of satellite users consume 18 Gbytes a month, or less.

                 Cumulative Distribution of User Traffic, by Technology