Are Mobile Networks Now Supplements to Fixed Networks?

For a decade and a half, some observers have argued that Wi-Fi networks could emerge as alternatives or replacements for the mobile network. The speculation seemed to peak in 2002 and 2003, when there was lots of speculation about potential community or metro Wi-Fi networks. These days, Wi-Fi generally is seen as a complement to the mobile network.

Some might argue that the mobile network now is secondary, in some cases, to Wi-Fi networks. Cable operators, among some others, hope that is the case, since it would shift the perception of fixed networks.

Olivier Baujard, Deutsche Telekom's chief technology officer, says that in the Netherlands, “mobile” phones actually are used more as untethered devices. where 45 percent of traffic is from home, 45 percent is from work, and only 10 percent is while "walking, driving a car, taking a bus, or things like that." In other words, the mobile network is the access mechanism only about 10 percent of the time.

The ability to substitute Wi-Fi for mobile connections is less robust in areas of lower density, though. Buit Wi-Fi covers most of the places where people are, most of the time. Some 80 percent of the time, people connect to the mobile Internet from their home, office, or other indoor location—all areas that are addressable by Wi-Fi. Cisco says.

The other angle is that most of the apps people use are not specifically tied to “mobile,” on the go use cases. According to Cisco, about 66 percent of all smart phone application use involves email, web browsing, gaming, productivity tools or video calls that do not intrinsically involve a “mobile” use case.   

In addition, 80 percent of people's data traffic comes from just three cell phone towers--one near home, one near work, and one someplace in between, the Deutsche Telekom executive said.

That is one important reason why end user bandwidth consumption has to be measured across all available networks people use, one might argue. For example, U.K. Android users send and receive 78 percent of all their 3G data over WiFi networks, according to Nielsen.

Globally, 33 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded onto the fixed network through Wi-Fi or femtocell in 2012, according to Cisco.  In 2012, without offload, mobile data traffic would have grown 96 percent rather than 70 percent.

But consumption might change as more users switch to the faster fourth generation Long Term Evolution networks. The reason is that faster networks almost always lead to more data consumption.

The implication is that total data consumption cannot be assessed using usage data from any single network.

“Offloading” increases each hour after 5pm, building to a peak between 11pm and midnight, when 90 percent of data transferred uses Wi-Fi.  Conversely, 3G data transfer tends to peak just before the working day starts, again at lunchtime, and finally during the early evening commute when users cannot rely so much on a Wi-Fi connection.
Nielsen Smartphone Analytics.

David Gosen, Nielsen European managing director for digital, said “Wi-Fi is on average three-and-a-half times more dominant than 3G when it comes to delivering mobile internet data services. It peaks around midnight as users gravitate towards social networks."